About Wisconsin, And How 2020 Is/Isn’t Like 2016
Our friend Drew Savicki has the 270 to Win write-up on the state that probably turned the tide in 2016, and has been very much in the news lately:
Joe Biden, for his part, has promised not to repeat the mistakes of Hillary Clinton and has aggressively courted the state. Although polling got the state wrong in 2016, there is reason for optimism among Democrats. A recent poll from the highly-regarded Marquette University Law School found Joe Biden’s favorability to be a net -2, whereas Trump’s is way down at -12. Marquette’s findings really sum up the difference from 2016: Biden is a much more popular candidate than Clinton and Trump’s vote share continues to track closely with his favorability numbers, suggesting he’s having trouble getting people who dislike him to vote for him.
President Trump has tried to link Biden to the riots and protests in Kenosha but polls show voters don’t associate him with them and are likely to blame President Trump instead. In that same Marquette poll, 54% of likely voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the protests.
For Biden to carry the Badger State he must win back Obama/Trump voters, particularly in western and southeastern Wisconsin. As Crystal Ball editor J. Miles Coleman pointed out recently, northern Wisconsin might be a region to watch this time. Biden has consistently polled better than Clinton with older voters, and northern Wisconsin, though it’s taken on an increasingly GOP lean, has a population that skews older. Trump only carried senior voters in Wisconsin 49%-48% in 2016, so if he’s clearly behind with them, it could be problematic. Biden doesn’t need to win back every Obama/Trump voter in the rural areas, but reducing the Republican margins there is critical to a statewide victory.
Do read the whole piece here.
One thing that Stillwater has pointed out that probably stands to be re-looked at is how Clinton was unlikable to the point where her numbers went down in Michigan after campaigning there. *NOT* campaigning there was a tactic, not an oversight.
Biden may not be the most likable candidate the Democrats have ever put on the ballot but he is nowhere *NEAR* unlikable. Just going out there and demonstrating that he’s not unlikable might be enough to rebuild the Blue Wall.Report
538 gives Biden a 78 out of 100 chance of winning Wisconsin. There is a chance Trump gets his margin of error again. Friday fuckery from he Wisconsin Supreme Court and the Greens is trying to make the 22 percent happen. Trump does no have much of a margin of error in many states he needs to win. Things that worked against HRC are not going to work against Biden. Trump is not an outsider this time and he was never popular.Report
538 gave Hillary an 83.5% chance of winning Wisconsin. She was up by 8 to 12 points in the last polls.
So in Wisconsin, Biden is doing measurably worse than Hillary – who lost in Wisconsin.Report
Anecdotally after two weeks in Wisconsin visiting the in-laws (!) – Trump has a hard road ahead of him. Biden is spending a ton of money on advertising, there are Biden-Harris yard signs and billboards all over, and his visit to Kenosha after the President seems to have gone over better with the man in the street then expected. I have relatives there who voted for Trump last time because they are anti-abortion who are proudly and publicly planning to Vote for Biden.Report