You Can’t Change Anything
Participating in democracy is futile. Your vote, by itself, doesn’t matter. No, what you need is seven friends. Then, the eight of you can determine the outcome of an all-eyes-on-you election like the 2012 Iowa Republican Caucuses:
|
Mitt Romney
|
30,015
|
|
Rick Santorum
|
30,007
|
|
Ron Paul
|
26,219 |
|
Newt Gingrich
|
16,251
|
|
Rick Perry
|
12,604
|
|
Michelle Bachmann
|
6,073
|
|
Jon Huntsman
|
745
|
|
Herman Cain
|
58
|
|
Buddy Roemer
|
31
|
|
No Preference
|
135
|
|
Other
|
117
|
Buddy Roemer? Really, 31 Iowa Republicans? Since when was he an option? Anyway, there’s the results. Perry and Bachmann are basically out, Gingrich may stick it out hoping to realize more favorable numbers projected to come from South Carolina and Florida — but New Hampshire is Romney’s, period, especially with a McCain endorsement on its way later today.
And yet. . .
While I think Romney is the likely nominee, his showing last night indicates that there’s little enthusiasm for him out there among the Republican base. Having watched his speech last night, I can understand why. No matter how hard he tries, there’s just something off about Romney, something vaguely non-human. Heck, Santorum, a guy who normally makes my skin crawl, came off as more sincere, with a dash of actual good humor, as opposed to Romney’s lame stab at making a joke. Combined with being a Mormon in a party that sports a major evangelical base and a serial flip-flopper on social issues, I just don’t see how Romney attracts evangelicals and Paul supporters to the polls come November.
While Obama has his own enthusiasm gap this time around (I’m sure I’m not the only left-of-center type who finds his record on civil liberties appalling), he’s still the more attractive candidate compared to Romney and, if the economy keeps chugging along showing vague signs of improvement, he’ll be the man to beat.Report
You’re gonna lead with Buddy Roemer voters instead of Herman Cain voters? Poor form.Report
Cain at least got some national media to roast him alive. Where was Roemer’s press?Report
I wasn’t being entirely serious. Roemer at least has an amusing Twitter account to his credit, and his support may have come from voters intent more on mischief than genuine belief in his abilities.Report
I was thinking about the Colorado Caucus in 2008 and how my group (of 1) got busted up. Now, the rules in Colorado stated that you needed 15% to have your group remain. So I watched as the six people who showed up became seven people who showed up (bummer!) become 35 people who showed up… at which point I would have needed SIX people in my group.
Is there a similar 15% rule for Republicans in Iowa?Report
No, I understand it was a straight one- shot deal – you wrote the name of your candidate on a piece of paper and they counted it and that was it. (expcept for selecting the delegates, which was a different and later process) (As I understand it, Paul actually won the delegates – 9 for him, 7 apiece for Romney and Santorum – but as I also understand it, these delegates made non-binding pledges toward their respective candidates)Report
Nope. The 15% rule works in the Democratic caucuses, but in the Republican ones, it’s basically a straw poll.
On the other hand, the actual delegate apportionment process actually has very little to do with the results of the straw polls, and more to do with how party insiders deal with delegate selections.Report
Now would that be voting in bad faith?Report
It’s depressing when things go predictably. Romney in a walk. The only interesting thing to watch will be if any of his rivals actually try and take aim at him or if they all abstain out of fear of harming him in the general.Report
Gingrich now seems poised to detonate a genesis device to blow up Romney’s candidacy.Report
Y’know who it’d be hilarious in a monkey-wrench-in-the-gears sense for Rick Perry to drop out and endorse?Report
Buddy Roemer?Report
Ron Paul, actually.
Not saying there’s any chance whatsoever he’d do it, but it’d be a nice hand grenade to throw into the tent as he left.Report
My thoughts:
*Santorum picked up the “Anybody But Romney” talking stick which was previously held by Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Look for some nasty stories about Santorum in the next few weeks.
*A substantial number of Republican voters don’t give two shits what Ron Paul maybe wrote thirty years ago. If Paul cared more about getting elected than about using the political campaign to push his message then the primaries would basically be over.Report
Look for some nasty stories about Santorum in the next few weeks.
Am I allowed to say eeeew?Report
If you’re twelve, yeah, but I figure most of us outgrew the “making fun of your name” age a while back. (Yes, I know what you’re talking about.)Report