98th Oscars Projections: Mid-Year Edition

Originally, I had planned to wait until just before or after the fall festivals to make any updates to my Best Picture prediction boards for the upcoming 98th Academy Awards. That’s typically when the race begins to really take real shape. But with so many major trades and awards pundits launching or refreshing their own forecasts at the mid-year mark, I figured it was worth checking in to see how much has changed since the initial post-Cannes chatter. And, truthfully? In my opinion, not much has.

The debate over which film should be considered the current frontrunner remains wide open. Some are staking early claims on Sinners, the surprise horror blockbuster hit from the spring. Others are rallying behind Sentimental Value, the breakout darling from Cannes. I was a little surprised to see the Next Best Picture crew’s staff consensus lean toward After the Hunt as the early favorite. And then there are folks like me defaulting to One Battle After Another. A film that, depending on how the rest of the year plays out, could either be the next Inherent Vice, a ultimately ignored awards contender, or become the film that finally earns Paul Thomas Anderson that long-elusive Oscar gold. Especially considering the political themes it’s reportedly tackling.

That, to me, is the wildcard in this year’s race, the political climate. Last awards season took place under the shadow of Trump’s return to office, and the industry’s response was oddly muted. Anora, a sharp but chaotic R-rated screwball comedy, took the top prize, less a political statement than the industry juts gravitating to a movie that made them laugh. But now, midway through year one of Trump’s second term, things feel different to me. The cultural mood has shifted. Protests are back on the streets, especially in places like L.A. where the industry lives and breathes. Global tensions are rising. And I have to believe that Academy voters, many of whom pride themselves on speaking to the moment, are going to start craving something with real-world resonance. That was part of the reason I came around late to Anora last season, wondering if voters would want to say something. They didn’t then. They might now.

In terms of what’s emerged as a serious contender at the halfway mark, there’s really only one film I’d feel confident calling a “lock” right now – Sinners. While Black Bag was critically praised, it failed to connect with general audiences and vanished quickly from the cultural conversation. Meanwhile, F1: The Movie has proven itself to be a legitimate summer box office success, but critics seem much more divided on it, and it’s unclear how passionately anyone will push for it come awards season. Several other titles that once looked like long-shot possibilities have shown more red flags than promise. But Sinners continues to stand out. That said, I still have it ranked “only” at #8. I want to see how the rest of the year unfolds, especially whether its genre origins ends up limiting its appeal with the Academy’s more traditionalist, high-brow, or less genre-inclined international voters.

So the question now, as we crest into the second half of the year and watch the summer blockbuster season wind down, is where will things stand by Labor Day?

By then, One Battle After Another will be right around the corner. The fall festivals will be kicking into gear and the campaign season will start to truly heat up. And we’ll be closer to getting a read on two big populist X-factors in Wicked: For Good and Avatar: Fire And Ash. A weak fall festival slate could leave room for the Cannes titles and those larger studio releases to thrive. But if the festival circuit delivers big, that could crowd them out quickly, and suddenly we’re talking about an entirely different set of top-tier contenders.

For now, all we can do is wait. But at this moment, the Best Picture race feels winnable from nearly every direction. Multiple studios have legitimate shots. All it takes is one knockout festival premiere, one widely beloved release, and we might finally have our frontrunner. Last year was a chaotic race right up until the final stretch. Will that same chaos return? Or are we about to witness clarity begin to emerge?

Below are the forty films I currently have my eye on for a spot in the final lineup of ten. I’ve trimmed the board down by ten slots since the last update. The top fifteen remain unchanged, but further down the list, you’ll seen some real movement with several contenders having climbed, others having slipped, and eleven titles having been cut out entirely. As we move further into the year, the board will continue to shrink, and the window for contenders to break into the conversation will narrow. There’s still time for back-half releases to make their mark, but a few months from now, that window, and this board, will start shrinking pretty dramatically.

Tier 1: The Predicted Ten

1. One Battle For Another

2. Sentimental Value

3. Bugonia

4. Hamnet

5. Jay Kelly

6. Deliver Me From Nowhere

7. The Secret Agent

8. Sinners

9. Wicked: For Good

10. Avatar: Fire And Ash

Tier 2: The “On The Bubble” Contenders

11. The Rivals Of Amziah King

12. It Was Just An Accident

13. After The Hunt

14. Marty Supreme

15. The Smashing Machine

16. Nouvelle Vague

17. Frankenstein

18. A House Of Dynamite

19. Ella McCay

20. Kiss Of The Spider Woman

Tier 3: The Dark Horses On The Verge Of Being Taken Serious

21. Ann Lee

22. Hedda

23. The Ballad Of A Small Player

24. Highest 2 Lowest

25. F1 The Movie

26. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

27. Rental Family

28. Is This Thing On?

29. No Other Choice

30. Sirat

Tier 4: The Long Shots With A Slim Path

31. Resurrection

32. Sound Of Falling

33. Die My Love

34. Roofman

35. Train Dreams

36. Eleanor The Great

37. Sorry, Baby

38. The Roses

39. Eddington

40. Black Bag

Off The Board Since The Last Update: Blue Moon; If I Had Legs I’d Kick You; Long Days Journey Into Night; Materialists; Mother Mary; Superman; The Life Of Chuck; The Phoenician Scheme; The Running Man; The Wedding Banquet; Tron: Ares