53 thoughts on “Trump Announces Strikes on Iran Nuclear Facilities

      1. That’s really impressive. The B-2 launched from an American base in the US, bombed Iran, and then flew back. Presumably there were a few flying refills along the way.

          1. There are many planes that need to ask permission. Surely the B-2 isn’t one of them.

            Of course, this’d be a hell of a way to find out “oh, they figured it out”. I mean, if you were going to play that card, interrupting that particular mission would be when you’d do it.

    1. Wikipedia says: On 22 June, 2025, the Iranian parliament voted to close the Strait of Hormuz, in response to recent U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The decision is pending approval by the Islamic Republic’s Supreme National Security Council.

      So halfway approved at this point.

      1. As has been noted elsewhere on the internet, approval from the Iranian legislative branch appears to be a necessary hurdle for the executive to commit acts of war. As opposed to Congress…

        Granted, my occasional time in government has always been at the state level, as legislative staff, where we were constantly pushing legislators to avoid ceding power to the executive.

        1. Somehow I doubt the Iranian legislative branch approves every act of terrorism. A standard criticism is their parliament has “limited” ability to supervise.

          Which suggests this is political theater.

  1. Well, we’ve pretty clearly set the precedent that to avoid being attacked for developing nukes, you should develop nukes as fast and as secretly as possible.

    The exact thing we were trying to avoid with the sanctions and inspection and the agreement we had with Iran, but, hey, Trump destroyed all of those first term.

    1. The agreement Trump got rid of 8 years ago would have effectively made Iran a nuclear power after 15 years.

      We monitor them closely for 10 years but DON’T GET RID OF IT’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. So they’d continue to have the “right” to make almost-but-not-quite weapons grade material and to continue their weapons-program-in-all-but name.

      After 10 years the monitoring would be phased out and in 15 years there would be no monitoring. Iran would be presumed a normal country. And they’d be a few weeks away from getting dozens of bombs.

      That was the best deal we could get, in exchange for Iran’s “cooperation” we’d pay Billions of dollars for it and get rid of the sanctions.

      IMHO the flaws in this approach are pretty obvious.

    2. …to avoid being attacked for developing nukes, you should develop nukes as fast and as secretly as possible.

      Yes. However that’s better than the alternative, where you develop them openly and just claim it’s “for civilian purposes” even when it’s obvious they’re not.

            1. And none of it’s neighbors feel the need to get nukes to counter Israel’s while those same neighbors have said they’ll need to if Iran does.

              Almost like all of them understand that Israel responds to terrorism and Hamas using human shields is on Hamas’ ticket and not Israel’s.

              1. None of them feel the need? You don’t think Iraq, the Saudis, Yemen, Lebanon, etc., would love nukes if they had the ability to produce them and not either run afoul of their close allies (in the Saudis case) or get bombed into oblivion by Israel and their big brother before they can ever have a functioning nuke? I mean, Israel invades Lebanon every few years. Imagine if they, you know, couldn’t.

                What Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel have shown is that the best way to prevent hostile neighbors from attacking your country on even a medium scale, you have to have nukes. Iran is learning this lesson doubly, with both the U.S. and Israel attacking them. If they weren’t pursuing nukes — and there’s evidence they weren’t, at least not urgently — they definitely will be going forward.

              2. I mean, Israel invades Lebanon every few years. Imagine if they, you know, couldn’t.

                Does this imaginary reality picture Israel tolerating terrorism against it’s civilians, does it picture all the Jews fleeing the Middle East, or does it picture the terrorism stopping?

                What is your desired vision for peace in the Middle East? More specifically, does that vision include a Jewish state existing?

        1. …doesn’t that make the point? Like, explicitly?

          “Yes. Like Israel.”

          What’s the next part of the argument? “Isn’t it hypocritical to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of people who scream for your death?”

          “Um. No?”

          Wait, maybe a bad appeal to unshared principles will do the job. “I thought you were in support of gun control. This is exactly that.”

          1. My point was if you don’t want nukes in the region, then letting Israel have them was a bad idea. Given that Israel has them, that genie is no longer really bottle-able.

              1. Dark’s argument is Iran having them would result in multiple states in the region having them. My counter is Israel having them is why Iran is trying to have them. Whether or not any of them should have them is a different discussion.

              2. Iran having them would result in multiple states in the region having them

                Hasn’t yet.

                Israel having them is why Iran is trying to have them

                I’m pretty sure that there are plenty of reasons to want them.

                Whether or not any of them should have them is a different discussion.

                That particular discussion recently was reopened and concluded, however temporarily, with a dozen bunker-busters.

              3. Thanks to Heather Cox-Richardson, we learned tonight that the US planted the seeds for this at the same time we planted them in Israel:

                In 1967 the U.S. supplied a nuclear reactor and highly enriched uranium to Iran, and trained Iranian scientists in the United States. In 1974, according to Ariana Rowberry of the Brookings Institution, the shah announced he intended to build 20 new reactors in the next 20 years.

                https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/june-23-2025?r=v677&utm_medium=ios

              4. The seeds? Iran in 1974 was a normal state and had signed the non-proliferation treaty.

                We were obligated under that treaty to help them with their civilian nuclear power program in exchange for them not seeking nukes. For that matter we’ve offered to give modern Iran as much civilian enhanced U as they want.

                Back in the 60’s nuclear power was supposed to be cheap and limitless.

              5. They were a government imposed on Iran’s people by a CIA funded coup. As were a great many regimes back then. To expect they would remain so was the worst kind of hubris.

                Beyond that – we gave them the equipment to start a nuclear program. That the current regime converted it to military purposes should have surprised exactly no one. But to keep yammering on about how bad this – while ignoring our own very important role in putting the pieces in play is to be intellectually dishonest at best.

              6. Unfortunately I lack a time travel machine to go back to my grand parents time and warn the US that they shouldn’t honor their treaty obligations to a country they were in good standing at the time.

                Even if I had and we hadn’t “given them the seeds”, Iran would have gotten the technology from someone else because at the time everything they did was legal and acceptable. It wasn’t obvious that this was a weapons program until well after the revolution.

                They were a government imposed on Iran’s people by a CIA funded coup

                True. And now they have a government imposed on them by a religious sect. First actual free election and the Priests are out of there. Certainly Iran’s women don’t like being beaten up because of different views on women’s fashion.

                One of the ironies of this is at the time of the Iranian revolution President Jimmy Carter was well aware of the ethical issues you describe and hoped to resolve them by having the revolutionaries take over and being on better terms with them.

                However, we still have the problem of what to do with an insane country run by religious zealots who constantly attack their regional neighbors via terror proxies and who want nuclear weapons.

    3. I’m not sure this has much predictive value.

      1. We have another (worse) precedent where Libya negotiated the end of it’s nuclear and WMD program and complied with international inspections, only to be bombed by the US and it’s EU negotiating partners.
      2. North Korea turned it’s Soviet civilian program into a semi-secret program successfully having negotiated multiple treaties promising not to complete it’s program.
      3. India pursued civilian nuclear and pivoted to a secret weapons program with internal expertise.
      4. Pakistan, same as above. Neither country participated in NPT.
      5. Famously, Israel has no nuclear weapons; just a Civilian Nuclear program.

      Nuclear non-proliferation is difficult… it seems to fail on every axis except the voluntary one. And even then, it fails since voluntary compliance simply pivots to non-compliance in secret.

  2. The consensus seems to be that the entire inventory of bunker busters was 19 or 20. They cost many of millions of dollars to build, and it is not clear that the production infrastructure still exists, so months or longer. If 14 were not enough, it’s unlikely that another 5 or 6 are. The scary thought is that there are hundreds of low-yield nukes available, easier to deliver, and already deployed as close as the nearest carrier strike group.

              1. Here’s a second order effect that would have been a third order effect on Friday: Qatar has closed its airspace.

                I don’t know whether that means that Al-Udeid’s airspace is also closed.

              2. The real question is whether the missiles to Qatar are part of the face-saving process that Iran uses to de-escalate? Post Soleimani, post Israel #1, post Fordow…?

              3. They’ve *SAID* that they are?

                And Trump has agreed that they are? Kinda?

                Iran has officially responded to our Obliteration of their Nuclear Facilities with a very weak response, which we expected, and have very effectively countered. There have been 14 missiles fired — 13 were knocked down, and 1 was “set free,” because it was headed in a nonthreatening direction. I am pleased to report that NO Americans were harmed, and hardly any damage was done. Most importantly, they’ve gotten it all out of their “system,” and there will, hopefully, be no further HATE. I want to thank Iran for giving us early notice, which made it possible for no lives to be lost, and nobody to be injured. Perhaps Iran can now proceed to Peace and Harmony in the Region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

              4. Seems that way. So we can all be grateful that everyone is now standing down and the war that we started seems to be over with some stuff blown up but not much more than that. (Edited to add: Oh, other than all those people who died, but they were Iranian so they must have been bad.)

                Iran didn’t have nuclear weapons before, they don’t have them now.

                We didn’t know where their uranium was before, and we still don’t now.

                No one will go through regime change.

                Under Trump’s leadership we were seen as untrustworthy, belligerent, and just plain unlikeable, and that certainly hasn’t changed, either.

                Nothing changed. The Straits of Hormuz were not shut. Hell, the market barely even blinked.

              5. Well, I wouldn’t declare victory just yet if I were Team Trump; and, I wouldn’t rule out Trump going to the well one more time and spoiling the soup.

                But most importantly, the harder work of diplomatic negotiations of a new framework are non-existent; and I don’t trust the Trump team to navigate this window of opportunity.

                On the matter of trustworthiness, it is possible that US credibility on this and some related matters has gone up. I take your point that it may also go down in other areas; but pending final dispositions, nuclear non-Proliferation has a new risk calculus.

                I recognize that I may have different long-standing priors regarding international institutionalism than you do; but be assured it comes from a much older, non-Trumpy place.

                Finally, I’d assume betting markets on Trump catching a bullet within 24-months should have inched upwards some amount.

              6. Let me go on the record as being clear that I am not rooting in favor of an assassin’s bullet. I want Trump removed from office, via lawful and peaceful means. (I know very well I am not going to get that.)

      1. …my first thought is “ground-level dirty bomb”…. How accurate is that?

        Dirty in the sense that ground-burst or shallow-penetration warheads inherently create more fallout than an air-burst bomb of the same design, yes. Dirty in the sense of salted bomb designs intended to maximize the effective amount of radioactive fallout, no.

        1. Well, a suitcase nuke (where suitcase is defined as “one of the big suitcases” rather than “briefcase”) is probably unlikely given the levels of tech required.

          But it’s significantly easier to imagine one that could fit in the back of a 1982 Subaru GL.

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