It has been six days since the Israeli-Iran War started and Israel seems to be operating with impunity in Iranian airspace. Iran’s attempts to retaliate with missile and drone attacks have largely resulted in millions of dollars worth of scrap metal littering the Israeli countryside.
It is into this state of affairs that Donald Trump had decided to insert himself, calling for Iran’s UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” in a characteristic all-caps post. The president is apparently attempting to invoke the spirit of former president and general, Ulysses S. Grant, who bore that phrase as a nickname.
You might ask yourself how the president of a nation that is not at war could conceivably call for the unconditional surrender of a nation that is at war… with someone else. The answer to that is that Trump has apparently decided to self-identify as an Israeli president, despite having opposed Israel’s attacks at first and emphasizing that Israel acted alone. Trump now appears to be taking credit for Israel’s success and is definitely threatening the Iranian regime.
In addition to calling on Iran to surrender, warning that Tehran should be evacuated, and saying that the US may decide to directly target Iran’s supreme leader, Trump is also saying, “We [emphasis mine] now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran,” adding, “Nobody does it better than the good ol’ USA.”
I imagine the Israeli military thinking, “What do you mean ’we,’ paleface?”
It seems most likely that Trump is trying to piggyback on Israel’s glory, but there is a real chance that the US may eventually get directly involved. There is speculation that some Iranian nuclear sites are too hardened for the Israelis to destroy, but the US has a massive 30,000-pound conventional bomb that is designed to destroy impregnable targets. These “bunker busters” could be dropped by US aircraft at almost no risk now that “we” (meaning Israel) control the skies.
There are signs that US involvement is being considered. Trump abruptly left the G7 conference in Canada over the weekend. At about the same time, about 30 US Air Force tankers left the country for Europe in an apparent move to position the fuel-delivery planes to support a potential strike force.
So how do you lose a war you aren’t fighting? Well, one way is to make yourself look weak and vain by swooping in to glory-hound after most of the fighting is done and the risks have been taken. Everyone knows that this has been Israel’s show from the beginning, and Trump’s attempts to steal the spotlight are transparent.
Israel took a YUGE risk and it seems to have paid off handsomely. I wrote last week that the US and Israel have been contemplating airstrikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear programs for about two decades, but the matter was always put off because of the logistical difficulties and the risks of not being able to complete the job successfully. The problems became worse after Russia supplied Iran with modern S-300 surface-to-air missile systems in 2016. Israel seems to have solved all of those problems, and the failure of Iranian air defenses should be keeping Putin and his generals up at night.
The sustained air campaign by a small nation is immensely impressive, especially considering the fact that the distance from Israel to Tehran is almost 2,000 miles, with much of that distance being over hostile territory. That is farther than the distance from New York to Denver.
The difficulty was probably eased somewhat by the fact that Iran has few friends among the Arab nations in the Middle East. A great many of the oil states around the Persian Gulf did not want to see a nuclear-armed Iran destabilize the region and start a regional nuclear arms race. Compared to opposing over Israel’s actions in Gaza, the silence over Iran is deafening.
The Israelis seem to have destroyed Iran’s war machine without losing a single aircraft, despite Iranian claims. So much for the critics of the Lockheed F-35 Lightning II, or as Trump might say, the “losers and haters.”
At this point, it is unclear how long the Israeli-Iran War will continue, but the Persian nation has turned into a target-rich environment for Israeli pilots. What seems apparent is that Israel will keep bombing as long as they want because the Iranians are powerless to stop them. The war may continue until Israel can’t find any targets worth bombing or until Israel ‘s stockpile of munitions is depleted.
This may be the most lopsided victory in the history of aerial warfare, and make no mistake, it is an Israeli victory, no matter what Donald Trump says. The Israelis took the risks, and they deserve the glory.
The Israelis took the risks, and they deserve the glory.
I’m sure they’re fine sharing the glory with Trump in exchange for the US dropping a dozen or so bunker busters. Well, that plus the various supplies we’ve sent them and the political cover we’ve given them at the UN.
Israel apparently can control the skies all the way to the Iranian-Pakistani border and blow shit up at will. It can mostly defend itself against missiles. And Israel has some pretty good covert ops and espionage capabilities, too, as we’ve seen. I presume nearly all of the enrichment facilities in Iran are smoking craters and rubble right now other than the ones that the bunker-busters are needed to englassify.
But none of this is boots on the ground. Regime change in Iran isn’t on the menu. And it seems hard to imagine anyone being satisfied with Iran promising to do [X] (like “Okay, this time we mean it, we really won’t develop nukes, you can come and check,”) because no one will trust them not to renege and cheat. That basically gets us back to IAEA inspections.
So what would Iran’s UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER bring? IOW, what’s the objective of continuing to blow up stuff in Iran (beyond the bunker buster stuff)?
Sorry — strike this; I see y’all are actively debating this issue on another thread. Will jump in there.
what’s the objective of continuing to blow up stuff in Iran
It’s a country which is much bigger than Israel. The list of military targets is so large Israel could bomb until it runs out of bombs and not be done. Also all of Iran’s potential air assets aren’t gone. In theory if Iran is left alone for a few days they could regain enough air control to create problems. Bombing random stuff now creates chaos and gives Israel time for the US bombers to show up and claim all the glory.
It’s also possible for Israel to cripple Iran’s oil infrastructure but from the pictures I’ve seen that hasn’t happened yet. Those “strikes” look more like “look what we could do while we’re here” rather than attempts to burn stuff down. There are politicians trying to make deals, this increases Israel’s leverage.
You need to take into account how the old people who remember Operation Iraqi Liberation will read this comment.