With The Court of International Trade temporarily putting most of the Trump tariffs in timeout, the main components of the administration’s economic policy continue to reign supreme: confusion, chaos, uncertainty.
Two broad categories of tariffs implemented by the Trump administration have been halted by the court’s decision.
Trump’s global tariffs announced on April 2, which affected nearly every country around the world, have been struck down. These tariffs imposed a 10 percent tax on imports from nearly all countries. Initially, Trump said those tariffs would rise to much higher rates for dozens of countries. But those so-called reciprocal tariffs on more than 75 countries were later delayed and not scheduled to take effect until July. Trump also imposed a higher rate on imports from China, which was lowered after negotiations between the two countries.
The court also halted 25 percent tariffs that Trump — citing an emergency over illegal migration and drug trafficking — imposed on many products from Canada and Mexico, and tariffs of 20 percent on most goods from China for its alleged role in facilitating production of the opioid fentanyl.
The court also appears to have halted Trump’s order that removed duty-free shipping for small-value packages, or “de minimis” shipping previously used by retailers such as Shein and Temu, on goods from China, though the immediate effect on de minimis was unclear.
Trump’s tariffs on specific products such as steel, aluminum and automobiles are not affected and are still in effect. Trump did not use the emergency powers to implement these levies, instead relying on a 1962 trade law. Typically, the commerce secretary or another government official has to investigate whether the imports affect national security under this law, so the process takes longer than using emergency powers.
That last bit is the key to this whole mess, the President using “emergency powers” for something that is only an emergency for an administration that has we want what we want, and we want it right now, now give it to us or else as guiding judicial philosophy.
President Trump’s long-proclaimed desire to use tariffs has given him one of his life’s main goals; the entire world fiscal system revolves around him, his whims, and his wants. He can say something and have the governments of the world, the markets, and the media immediately adjust their orbits around the new gravity well he just spun out. Then on to the next whim. Lather, rinse, repeat. Donald Trump has never been happier.
But the global economy isn’t designed to work this way for good reason. Aside from the legality of Trade Policy via Truth Social, and aside from congress’s complete abrogation of its delineated powers when it comes to trade and the national purse, and aside from the bullwhip effects in the logistics system of goods and resources being started and stopped arbitrarily, and aside from…
No, actually, all those asides are the point. President Trump is doing whatever he wants because President Trump has been trained by the American system of government for a decade now that President Trump can do whatever he wants. Unlike his first term, where there were a handful of old guard functional adults in the administration that never lasted long but did check Trump’s worst impulses, there is no internal pushback to anything. That isn’t going to change. Congress has a slim majority GOP House that just passed the “big, beautiful bill” and a Senate GOP majority that now has to try and make the monstrosity work and pass. Checking the President on trade isn’t going to get any oxygen in those rooms no matter how asphyxiated the sycophant caucus of the GOP gets. But the occasional congress critter might do some crowing about it on a media hit occasionally, so there is that.
The only thing that has checked the Trump Administration’s tariff tear so far is when the bond market freaks out, which – rightfully – freaked out the administration. The judicial review whack-a-mole of injunctions, reliefs, overruling, and appeals is going to continue at a pace that is far slower than the dictates of a president that governs by dictates. Meanwhile the global economy that centers around the United States economic might has to try and adjust to an artificial obstacle course game show imposed by Trump where the rules change on a whim, the points don’t matter, and just the fact everyone else is running the course is enough for the administration to feel like it is winning bigly.
Chaos isn’t a ladder to those already at the heights of power; it is a cudgel, one that the American electorate voted for. That same electorate’s representatives in congress can’t seem to bother doing anything about it. Thus, we will all be getting what was voted for, good and hard, with only intermediate judicial and market-induced respites, until 2028 gets here.
The second worst thing you can do to an economy is bad policy. The worst possible thing you can do is perpetual uncertainty. Creating economic chaos just for the amusement and aggrandizement of a lame duck president? We’re going to need a whole new term for that one.
Given his proclivities he is not assuming he is a lame duck. Engine that state at our peril.
Ironically the courts may be bailing Trump out on this one. Tariffs are such an incredibly bad policy that anything that ranks this lever from his hands will probably help the economy a lot. I also doubt the Supreme court will override on this either- it’s not at all complicated and their own venal interests will incentivize the Supreme Court to go along with “a taking the keys away from Grandpa” move by the courts.
And, of course, if trade resumes as it was pre-Trump it’s possible the disruption he’s already caused may just get absorbed by the economy as a bump rather than a crash into a wall. Trump really may be one of the luckiest SOB’s alive.
Yeah. What’s funny is that this is, like, a legitimate ruling on the courts part. This is not particularly political beyond the good feelings it engenders in Trump’s opposition (as opposed to a handful of other recent things that the courts have done to stymie Trump).
Which does two things:
1. A good thing that helps the economy
2. Looks exactly as politicized as the less perfectly legitimate rulings
I’m wondering if the “right track” numbers will go green for the first time since… oh my… this can’t be right…
What can’t be right?
We haven’t had a positive “right direction/wrong track” number for more than 20 years.
The closest we got was a tie. Once.
Welcome to a closely divided electorate *shrugs*.
According to the chart, we were practically in accord during Biden’s term.
Biden was, apparently up until the last year, a genial old collaborative fellow and, while the GOP voters had no love for him, it’s pretty clear the GOP politicians in DC couldn’t muster up much genuine animus for him. He did a pretty decent job overall on economic and foreign policy and got a number of bipartisan bills through a very narrow majority because of his approach and demeanor so it’s no surprise that the gap was narrow under his tenure. If he’d have been a few years younger we could have scraped through but he wasn’t and we didn’t.
Click on the link.
That’s not the accord that the chart shows.
We’re finally moving *BACK* to being a divided country.
It does lend a lot of credence to the people who said that we shouldn’t be worried about whatever Trump says because the Deep State will stop him doing anything really harmful to most Americans.
I suppose so though that ascribes a much more benign meaning to the term Deep State than I think most Deep State critics do.
Will this one go all the way? From CNBC: Trump tariffs reinstated by appeals court for now
If only the U.S. Constitution had outlined a deliberative body tasked with taking care of things like this. What a country we would have been!
It’s an administrative stay, and includes a briefing schedule with reply briefs from the government due on 09 June 2025, less than two weeks from now. That suggests the Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit is contemplating making a preliminary ruling pretty quickly.
Here’s the actual order.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cafc.23105/gov.uscourts.cafc.23105.7.0_2.pdf
I am not sure of how important it is, but some people seem to think this sort of thing is very important and predictive. Here’s the breakdown of the judges who are included in the per curiam:
Moore – Bush the Younger
Lourie – Bush the Elder
Dyk – Clinton
Prost – Bush the Younger
Reyna – Obama
Taranto – Obama
Chen – Obama
Hughes – Obama
Stoll – Obama
Cunningham – Biden
Stark – Biden
If you’re counting D’s and R’s, that’s 8-3. Pauline Newman, a Reagan appointee (!) apparently recused herself. There are no Trump appointees on this Court.
1. Tariffs are not a priori bad policy contra North above. Trump is an idiot and I have no confidence in his ability to navigate international economics is a different issue.
Regarding the courts, they have one lever to pull and that is whether the Use of Emergency powers meets the criteria set by congress for declaring the Emergency. It is possible to make this case, in theory. From what I’ve seen, in the ruling? Not sure the Roberts Court will bail Congress out of this.
Here’s what the law says:
(a)Any authority granted to the President by section 1702 of this title may be exercised to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the President declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/50/1701
Congress: We’re going to delegate tariff power ordinarily governed by the ITC in the case of an Emergency to you.
President: Like War?
Congress: We’re thinking maybe anything that’s an extraordinary threat… no, make it an unusual extraordinary threat.
President: Like a foreign threat?
Congress: Sure, or maybe at least like, let’s say, substantially foreign.
President: So like a foreign (substantially) threat to National Security?
Congress: Well, and maybe to like to Foreign Policy in general.
President: Ok, so a threat to my core responsibility as Commander in Chief and Head of State. Got it.
Congress: And the Economy
President: The Economy? An emergency threat to the Economy that requires Tariffs?
Congress: Yes.
President: And the Emergency is something Congress declares?
Congress: We were thinking maybe you could decide that for us?
President: And then you review it after a period of time like the War Powers Act?
Congress: Nah, we’re good with whatever you decide.
President: So,… as long as I think something is an unusual extraordinary substantially foreign threat to anything related to National Security and Foreign Policy or the Economy I can use these powers?
Congress: Well, you have to ‘Declare’ it first.
President: Like Bankruptcy?
Congress: That’s not how Bankruptcy works.
President: So I declare it and it is?
Congress: Yes.
President: I accept.
https://www.cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/files/25-66.pdf
I’ll cop to the wording on that being over broad but surely you’ll allow that the tariffs as Trump has enacted them have been an utter clusterfish of a policy whether or not tariffs in general have occasional applicability? Biden did targeted strategic tariffs and trade restrictions on China in areas his administration deemed strategically important and I am sympathetic to that position.
Well sure, I did write “Trump is an idiot and I have no confidence in his ability to navigate international economics” so we’re aligned on the principle that the guy at the helm with all the delegated power is a good reason not to delegate power stupidly without oversight, time limits, and or/approval.
Even ‘fast track’ trade agreements require the deal be brought back to Congress for an up/down vote…
The Roberts Court has been begging Congress to resume its role. And I think there’s a 70% chance it rules in that direction (30% is the rare ACA Mandate = Tax exception to the Roberts Rule).
Yeah I agree odds are excellent Roberts upholds Trump being shooed out of tariffing everything in sight.