The Joy Of Opening Time Capsules: 2024 Election Edition
In 2011, we made predictions about 2012 and then, in 2012, enjoyed reading those predictions.
Back in 2015, we made predictions about the coming nominations and then, in 2016, had a real hootenanny looking back again.
In 2018, we made predictions about what would happen in the mid-terms.
And, yes, in 2019, we made predictions about who the Democratic nominees would be.
In 2020, we made predictions about the presidential election.
And, in 2022, we made predictions about the off-year election.
Now it is time to make predictions about November 2024!
There are several big ones.
The first is: Will Trump be on the Republican ballot?
If it’s not Trump, who will be at the top of the ticket?
In any case, who will be the vice-presidential candidate?
A somewhat easier prediction to make is about the Democratic ticket. It’ll still be Biden/Harris, right? If it’s not… who will it be?
We also have elections coming up for the House and for the Senate!
As of right now, there are 219 Republicans, 213 Democrats, and 3 vacancies. Will the Democrats take back the house? What will the numbers look like?
As for the Senate, there are upcoming elections for (deep breath) Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Nebraska has *TWO* elections! One of their senators was appointed last year, you see. So that’s a grand total of 34(!) senate seats up for election.
There are *SEVEN* senators retiring. California, Delaware, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Utah, and West Virginia. California’s kinda doesn’t count, though. That was DiFi’s seat and she died in office and her replacement, Laphonza Butler, went in knowing that she wasn’t going to do much more than keep the chair warm.
The big questions: Will Sinema (now an independent) manage to keep her seat? Debbie Stabenow in Michigan is retiring! Will her seat flip to the Republicans? How’s about Jon Tester in Montana? Sharrod Brown in Ohio is a Democrat and Ohio has slowly gotten redder over the years. Will any Republicans lose to the Democrats?
Right now the Senate Numbers are 48 Democrats, 49 Republicans, and 3 Independents. What will the numbers look like afterwards?
And are there any big questions that I should have asked as well?
Remember: you can’t mock someone else as being worse than Hitler for how they think the election will turn out without making your prediction first!
Biden wins by 2-4% nationally and takes the EC. Biden getting +5 nationally would not surprise me. D’s get a solid majority in the House. Senate: i got no idea. I know this is a tough year for D’s but i have no idea about the precise numbers or candidates. Wouldn’t surprise me if R’s piss another senate seat or two down their legs given that is their history. Sinema: she’s gone and on to whatever will make her gobs of money.
tfg’s vp pick: Who knows? I dont’ have the psionic ability to detect who is the most degradable, bendable and humiliation positive R out there.Report
Okay.
First thing is that, once again, everything feels weird and off. Like, I have read a handful of reasonable arguments for why Trump won’t be on the ballot in November due to this, or that, or the other thing. I have read a handful of reasonable arguments for why he will be. These arguments all make sense to me.
So will he? Let’s throw a hail Mary.
I think he actually might *NOT* be on the ballot. One lawsuit too many and whammo. He’s not the nominee. But it won’t be Haley. I think that they’re going to swing back to DeSantis after whatever happens, happens. Which means that the guy from Florida is going to have to grab somebody from the Midwest to tighten up that part of the ticket. Mike DeWine?
That’s crazy. It can’t be DeSantis/DeWine. We can’t have the De’s on the ballot. That’s nuts.
It’s still Biden/Harris.
Republicans keep the house and widen their hold. Right now it’s 219? Let’s put the marker at 230.
As for the Senate, the big question is whether the Republicans are at 52 after the election or at 53. I’m going to say that they’re going to be disappointed to only have 52. They won’t get Michigan. They will get Arizona, Ohio, and Montana.Report
First, note that I’m terrible at these things.
Trump will be the candidate. The Supreme Court will weasel the primaries, most likely holding that states can disqualify someone where it’s an absolute matter (the candidate is old enough, or not) but not on matters that are subjective (like, you know, was it an insurrection). The court cases will drag out past the convention, and once he’s the candidate the RNC isn’t crazy enough to try to remove him.
The Republican VP candidate will be someone from east of the Mississippi River. Trump hates/ignores the western half of the country and won’t pick someone from there.
Biden/Harris win the national popular vote by 10M+. The EC decision comes down to 100,000 votes in the right places.
Democrats hold the Senate seats in Arizona and Montana. Sinema drops out and the Democratic margin there is surprisingly wide.
Abusing edit privileges to add: Lauren Boebert doesn’t make the ballot in Colorado.Report
I’m going to go with my heart.
Trump/Desantis lose to Biden/Harris and it’s not close. Biden keeps GA and AZ but loses Oh.
The current razor thin house GOP majority becomes a minor Dem house majority, like 5-10 seats.
The Senate stays 50/50 Dems in control. Sinema goes but is replaced by Gallego- she discovers that her wealthy “friends” have little use for her now that she isn’t a voting Senator and to be a lobbyist you need someone on your old team who’ll answer your calls. She gets a perch at Fox and goes into the “I didn’t leave my party, my party left me” spiel.Report
Aren’t there Constitutional problems with Trump/DeSantis?Report
You may be right, an arcane one about the veep and President not being from the same state IIRC.Report
Nothing prevents them from running such a ticket. The Presidential and Vice-Presidential candidates can be from the same state, but the electoral votes of, in this case, Florida, can be applied only to one of them — presumably the Presidential candidate. In a blow-out EC win, the VP candidate could conceivably have enough EC votes to win even without Florida’s. This does not seem likely, and it would make little sense to run a ticket with two candidates from the same big state. As a practical matter, one might get away with two candidates from Wyoming.Report
Dang, we just took down the Christmas tree and the Nativity sets are still up… is it election season already? Definitely not in the mood yet.
And for that reason, I’m not really ready for a vibes test on election predictions. But, to play the game:
Trump will be on the ballot, and at this point it’s pretty clear that campaigning for President, defending against civil, criminal and constitutional indictments *is* both his political and legal (and fundraising) strategy. So running for president pays for potentially ruinous civil judgements against him (in his mind a cost of doing business); but I also expect the monetary damages and NY ‘fraud’ lawsuit not to yield ‘ruinous’ $$ after appeals etc. Whether or not criminal charges can resolved *before* the election? I’m gonna say 40% chance. And, if they are resolved, I’d also ‘predict’ that the sentences will be less than what opponents are imagining… especially for the documents charges (unless they find evidence of espionage… which would then make the odds of wrapping up before election almost nil). BUT, I’d have to say there’s an 80% likelihood he’s convicted (of something) but also an 85% chance the sentencing is suspended pending the election and therefore a slim 4.8% chance he’s in jail running a Eugene Debs reprise. He’ll still be on the ballot.
Trump’s running mate? Doesn’t matter and I have no idea.
Biden/Harris with a 10% chance that Biden either dies or suffers a debilitating health event… depending on the timing, he might still be on the ballot (???).
Prediction: Too soon to predict.
Hypothesis: Trump’s self-absorption campaign will bigly underperform 2016/2020. Biden wins by a lot.
Counter-hypothesis: Biden’s decline and weakness has impacted his ability to shape the Dems — progressives actively work to denigrate the good he does, and he’s too weak to marginalize the progressives and create the ‘big tent’ some hoped he’d build in 2020. Therefore, he campaigns on a ‘too-online’ platform and he isn’t seen as a foil to the Dem crazy for independents; this leaves the race shaped by that last worst thing done by either side in the negative-partisan sweepstakes to tilt the balance. Trump eeks out a squeaker, and MattY commits ritual suicide.
As for everything else, that’ll have to wait until after Easter.Report
Biden/Harris +7% nationally, and +200-300K in electorally important states. Win.
Trump/Stefaniak -7% nationally (obviously) with Trump actively appealing one if not two convictions by election day.
House +7-10 Democrats.
Senate remains the same, but with a solid Democratic replacement for Sinema. West Virginia’s flip to an R after Manchin is offset by another D pick elsewhere.
Come January 6th 2025 there way more political violence as the GOP base realizes they have been had again.Report
I think Stefaniak is a brilliant pick. She is a proven Trump lickspittle and has more than enough ambition.Report
Granted, Sarah Pallin didn’t really help John McCain, but Trump doesn’t like him anyway because he is a loser who got captured.Report
In 2008, Zombie Reagan running with Calvin Coolidge would have failed to win the election.
I cannot imagine a *SINGLE* republican who would have won in 2008.Report
In fact, Palin cost McCain at least one vote, as I was “on the fence leaning Obama” until he chose her and knocked me right off the fence.Report
My good friend had the same reaction, though he was leaning McCain. “That’s ridiculous”, he said.Report
Trump wins.
Biden claims the election was stolen.
Thousands of Antifa and PussyHats storm the Capitol.
The OT lefties claim it’s not an insurrection.
David Thornton writes 3 Trump articles a day for the next 4 years.
Trump is impeached 7 times, three of them after he drops dead of a heart attack in 2026.
President Nikki nukes Iran and Syria.Report
Nice to know you take this seriously.Report
Link?Report
Biden beats Trump, or Trump beats Biden’s replacement. That’d be Newsom if Biden drops out before June 1, Harris if he drops out afterwards.
An explanation. I personally think neither Trump nor Biden should be running. But the Republicans don’t have anyone who could tell Trump to step away, and the Democrats have a lot of people to tell that to Biden. If things are going badly for him or in international affairs, they’ll tell Biden, but it’ll be too little too late. I’d put the odds of Biden dropping out at 3:1.
The Senate, man, neither party is sending their best challengers. The safe bet is that VP Harris or Stefanik is the 51st vote.Report
For my money, it’d pretty interesting if they both croaked before November. What an election season that would be!Report
More DeSantis / Newsom debates?Report
Make it before October. By October 1, a large percentage of ballots — a substantial majority in the western states — will have been frozen and being printed. This year, in the 13 states of the American West, >90% of all regional ballots cast will be distributed by mail well in advance of election “day”. Here in Colorado, Oct 4 is the day county clerks are required to be in physical possession of the printed ballots. For the ten or so large population counties, that means the ballots have been folded and inserted in properly addressed envelopes. I believe the corresponding date in California is at least a week earlier.Report