These last few weeks have seen the race for the Oscars finally see some action as some regional groups have started to come out with their awards and nominations while critics individually have released or are drafting out their “Best of the Year” lists. But the biggest headlines have come from what I consider to be the early major awards bodies that the industry will look to as a guide on what films to screen and what performances to champion.
Critics Choice and the Hollywood Creative Alliance’s now re-named Astra Awards, both which have never not nominated the eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, announced their nominees; as did the Golden Globes who have just once ever not nominated the eventual Oscar winner (If you account for Parasite not being eligible its year). The American Film Institute and National Board of Review released their choices for the ten best films of the year with the former only twice in twenty-plus years not having the eventual Oscar winner on their list, and the latter having it listed among their list eighty-plus percent of the time in its near century old existence. Save for All Of Us Strangers, every movie that I have listed below as Picture contenders got at least one nod from one of these groups.
The Best Picture race can be divided into several sub-tiers. Oppenheimer, Killers Of The Flower Moon, Poor Things, The Holdovers, Maestro, and Barbie are locked in to the point I’d bet my mortgage on them getting nominated. American Fiction and Past Lives look extremely likely to happen but they’re also the most likely movies to end up losing steam as the season chugs along because historically almost always a strong early contender slips towards the finish line that is nominations morning; but they’re looking safe right now.
Then there’s those last two spots which every year several movies are fighting to get into. I currently have Anatomy Of A Fall in ninth as I believe the international crowd can flex their muscles and get it in. The Color Purple has taken a massive hit the last few weeks to the point I have it borderline making it now at tenth. As good as the early reactions for the movie are, the film has had key misses but Best Picture nominations from CCA and HCA have kept it barely alive and the guilds could bring it home.
Then you have what I believe are serious contenders to get into the race but I currently predict missing. The Zone Of Interest picked up a Golden Globes Picture nod and could end up being the international pick over ‘Anatomy’. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse became a rare animated film to get into the AFI Top 10 and get a Best Picture nomination from the HCA. Air has found a way to stay in the conversation with a surprising Picture nomination at the Golden Globes and getting the nod from HCA. May December is a big hit with critics showing up in the AFI Top 10 and the Golden Globes Picture race. Saltburn somehow pulled off a Best Picture nomination for the Critics Choice Awards.
After that we have five longshots that I consider very likely out of the race but their paths aren’t completely cut off in my opinion either. Ferrari, The Boy And The Heron, and The Iron Claw all got an NBR Top 10 listing though haven’t really shown up big elsewhere. All Of Us Strangers is a big hit with critics and its screenplay is surging but hasn’t shown up anywhere in Best Picture save for independent film awards. And then there’s the buzzed about international film Society Of The Snow which could be this year’s All Quiet On The Western Front, a film that missed everywhere for the top prize until the international voters flexed their muscles and catapulted it to finishing second-place at Oscar.
I really thought my predicted ten would change but it seems like one of those years, unlike last, that has much of the slate set in stone for months. That said there is no way I don’t see me changing this at least a little bit after more results start to stream in. The next best time to look back into the race will be after the start of the new year.
On the Acting front I haven’t changed any of my current predicted winners though my Supporting Actress prediction could change any minute depending on how The Color Purple does with the guilds. The Screenplay races are real tossups and I haven’t really touched them much in my updates. I’ll start adding other below-the-line categories in my projections after the BAFTA and Oscars shortlists come out.
Best Picture: Tilts Oppenheimer
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 10
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Maestro (+2 Since Last Update)
06. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. American Fiction (+1 Since Last Update)
08. Past Lives (+1 Since Last Update)
09. Anatomy Of A Fall (+1 Since Last Update)
10. The Color Purple (-5 Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
11. The Zone Of Interest (Unchanged Since Last Update)
12. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (+1 Since Last Update)
13. Air (-1 Since Last Update)
14. May December (+2 Since Last Update)
15. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
16. The Iron Claw (-2 Since Last Update)
17. All Of Us Strangers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
18. Ferrari (+4 Since Last Update)
19. The Boy And The Heron (Returning To The Board)
20. Society Of The Snow (New Entry To The Board)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: John Wick: Chapter 4, Napoleon, Nyad, Perfect Days, Priscilla, Rustin, The Promised Land, Wonka
Best Director: Tilts Nolan
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Christopher Nolan; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Martin Scorsese; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Yorgos Lanthimos; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Alexander Payne; The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Celine Song; Past Lives (+2 Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Gerwig; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (+3 Since Last Update)
08. Justine Triet; Anatomy Of A Fall (-3 Since Last Update)
09. Jonathan Glazer; The Zone Of Interest (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Cord Jefferson; American Fiction (+1 Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Blitz Bazawule; The Color Purple (-1 Since Last Update)
12. Emerald Fennell; Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
13. Sean Durkin; The Iron Claw (Added To The Board Since Last Update)
14. Michael Mann; Ferarri (New Entry To The Board)
15. Hayao Miyazaki; The Boy And The Heron (New Entry To The Board)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Sofia Coppola (Priscilla); Ridley Scott (Napoleon)
Best Actor: Tilts Cooper
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Bradley Cooper; Maestro (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Cillian Murphy; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Paul Giamatti; The Holdovers (+1 Since Last Update)
04. Jeffrey Wright; American Fiction (+2 Since Last Update)
05. Colman Domingo; Rustin (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Leonardo DiCaprio; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-3 Since Last Update)
07. Matt Damon; Air (+4 Since Last Update)
08. Teo Yoo; Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Barry Keoghan; Saltburn (-1 Since Last Update)
10. Adam Driver; Ferrari (+3 Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Zac Efron; The Iron Claw (-4 Since Last Update)
12. Andrew Scott; All Of Us Strangers (-2 Since Last Update)
13. Joaquin Phoenix; Napoleon (-1 Since Last Update)
14. Joaquin Phoenix; Beau Is Afraid (New Entry To The Board)
15. Nicolas Cage; Dream Scenario (New Entry To The Board)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Mads Mikkelsen (The Promised Land); Koji Yakusho (Perfect Days)
Best Actress: Tilts Stone
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Emma Stone; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Lily Gladstone; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Carey Mulligan; Maestro (+1 Since Last Update)
04. Margot Robbie; Barbie (+4 Since Last Update)
05. Fantasia Barrino; The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Greta Lee; Past Lives (+1 Since Last Update)
07. Sandra Huller; Anatomy Of A Fall (-1 Since Last Update)
08. Annette Benning; Nyad (-3 Since Last Update)
09. Natalie Portman; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
10. Cailee Spaeny; Priscilla (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Aujanue Ellis-Taylor; Origin (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Alma Pöysti; Fallen Leaves (New Entry To The Board)
13. Teyana Taylor; One Thousand And One (-2 Since Last Update)
14. Trace Lysette; Monica (+2 Since Last Update)
15. Helen Mirren; Golda (-1 Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: Emily Blunt (Pain Hustlers)
Best Supporting Actor: Tilts Downey JR
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Robert Downey JR; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Robert DeNiro; Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Mark Ruffalo; Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Ryan Gosling; Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Charles Melton; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Sterling K Brown; American Fiction (+2 Since Last Update)
07. Dominic Sessa; The Holdovers (+2 Since Last Update)
08. William Dafoe; Poor Things (-2 Since Last Update)
09. Colman Domingo; The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Matt Damon; Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Glenn Howerton; Blackberry (+2 Since Last Update)
12. John Magaro; Past Lives (-1 Since Last Update)
13. Holt McCallany; The Iron Claw (+2 Since Last Update)
14. Paul Mescal; All Of Us Strangers (-2 Since Last Update)
15. Jesse Plemons; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-1 Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
Best Supporting Actress: Tilts Brooks
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Danielle Brooks; The Color Purple (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Da’Vine Joy Randolph; The Holdovers (+1 Since Last Update)
03. Emily Blunt; Oppenheimer (+1 Since Last Update)
04. America Ferrera; Barbie (+6 Since Last Update)
05. Taraji P Henson; The Color Purple (-3 Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. Viola Davis; Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
07. Jodi Foster; Nyad (-2 Since Last Update)
08. Julianne Moore; May December (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. Rosamund Pike; Saltburn (+4 Since Last Update)
10. Racheal McAdams; Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (+1 Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Penelope Cruz; Ferrari (-2 Since Last Update)
12. Vanessa Kirby; Napoleon (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Claire Foy; All Of Us Strangers (+1 Since Last Update)
14. Niecy Nash-Betts; Origin (+1 Since Last Update)
15. Cara Jade Myers; Killers Of The Flower Moon (-3 Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
Best Original Screenplay: Tilts The Holdovers
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. The Holdovers (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Barbie (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Past Lives (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. Anatomy Of A Fall (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. Air (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. May December (+3 Since Last Update)
07. Maestro (-1 Since Last Update)
08. Saltburn (Unchanged Since Last Update)
09. The Iron Claw (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Fair Play (+3 Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Asteroid City (+3 Since Last Update)
12. Origin (+3 Since Last Update)
13. Priscilla (-2 Since Last Update)
14. Rustin (-2 Since Last Update)
15. Napoleon (-5 Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tilts Oppenheimer
– TIER 1: MY CURRENT PREDICTED 5
01. Oppenheimer (Unchanged Since Last Update)
02. Killers Of The Flower Moon (Unchanged Since Last Update)
03. Poor Things (Unchanged Since Last Update)
04. American Fiction (Unchanged Since Last Update)
05. All Of Us Strangers (+3 Since Last Update)
– TIER 2: “ON THE BUBBLE” CONTENDERS
06. The Zone Of Interest (-1 Since Last Update)
07. Are You There God? Its Me, Margaret (+4 Since Last Update)
08. The Color Purple (-2 Since Last Update)
09. Spider-Man: Across The Spiderverse (-2 Since Last Update)
10. Ferrari (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– TIER 3: LONGSHOTS WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE
11. Blackberry (+1 Since Last Update)
12. Nyad (-4 Since Last Update)
13. Wonka (Unchanged Since Last Update)
14. Next Goal Wins (Unchanged Since Last Update)
15. Dumb Money (Unchanged Since Last Update)
– Off The Board Since Last Update: None
