If Not Joe Biden, Who?

David Thornton

David Thornton is a freelance writer and professional pilot who has also lived in Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas. He is a graduate of the University of Georgia and Emmanuel College. He is Christian conservative/libertarian who was fortunate enough to have seen Ronald Reagan in person during his formative years. A former contributor to The Resurgent, David now writes for the Racket News with fellow Resurgent alum, Steve Berman, and his personal blog, CaptainKudzu. He currently lives with his wife and daughter near Columbus, Georgia. His son is serving in the US Air Force. You can find him on Twitter @CaptainKudzu and Facebook.

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37 Responses

  1. Philip H says:

    I think you are largely correct about Biden.

    I don’t think you are correct about some others. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris now have enough clout to garner better staff, who in turn can better direct a campaign. Mayor Pete is now garnering significant executive experience as Transportation Secretary – a sector that will be key to decarbonizing America. If Hakeem Jeffries has higher ambitions, 2024 will likely be his year to chase them. And Gavin Newsome presides over the world’s 4th largest economy, a growth message that Republicans can only dream of.

    Democrats, however, have shot themselves in the foot repeatedly at the state level. Jon Bell Edwards is indeed a centerist Democrat in a deeply red state, but he’s the only one. Likewise in Mississippi the only two Democrats in state-wide or state known office are Bennie Thompson and Brandon Pressley – the Public Service Commission Democrat currently challenging Tate Reeves for Governor. There just isn’t bench depth.

    At this point I am somewhat maudlin about the left’s prospects in 2024. Should Biden and Trump face off I think Biden wins. Biden and DeSantis is a tougher campaign, but as noted elsewhere here on OT DeSantis doesn’t have an economic answer for Americans, and Biden still does.

    Regardless, I want Biden to be the last Boomer or Boomer adjacent President. There is good leadership in the Gen X crowd, and we are REALLY tired of waiting to stretch our legs.Report

    • InMD in reply to Philip H says:

      I think Biden is actually Silent Generation.

      Of your list the only one that seems to me like a total whiff is Kamala. Newsome has a propensity to embarrass himself but as Chip notes below the GOP seems intent on perpetually raising the ceiling (or is it lowering the floor?) in that regard.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Philip H says:

      I’ll give props to Joe for his opening to SOTU. Beginning with recognition of McCarthy and his ‘dad joke’ about working with him came off as sincere, warm, and unironic — as far as DC goes, anyhow. Biden has always been really good at retail politics.

      As a Biden declinest, I still don’t think he has enough left in the tank to be the sort of Centrist Liberal he’d like to be. I think he’s managing his team in equal measures to how he’s being managed… and the balance will continue to tip unfavorably away from him. I’m not saying he has dementia, just that he has the fortitude and acuity of an Octogenarian – which is way past peak – and it shows. And it’s not going to improve. I’m a little bit reminded of BXVI who ultimately resigned the papacy in recognition that exerting the (internal) force necessary to control all the ambitions of his administration, was beyond his capacity. Whether or not that was good for the Papacy or would be good for the Dems? Maybe, maybe not.

      That said, yes, it’s his nomination to dispense with. For the party’s sake, it’s probably wise to see how 2024 shapes up before pushing in all the chips on Joe. But also, touting Joe’s ‘centrism’ absent Joe directing the show, increasingly comes across as strained. And, further, as much as I’ll grant that Joe has Centrist instincts and credentials, he’s become increasingly Left Liberal on a number of public issues, which further erodes the idea that he’s ‘holding back’ or managing the direction of the Party.Report

    • Jesse in reply to Philip H says:

      Whitmer / Warnock is the ticket for 2028, assuming neither of them are secretly serial killers or whatever.Report

  2. Chip Daniels says:

    The weakness of pundit prognostication is that A, a lot can happen in a couple years, and B, someone MUST and someone WILL win, regardless of any other factors.

    For context, in 2004 Barack Obama was so little known that Peggy Noonan crowed, “I do not know in toto what the Democratic party spent on the 2004 election, but what they have seemed to have gotten for it is Barack Obama. Let us savor.”
    In 2014 Donald Trump was a punchline and it was impossible for him to win the nomination, right up until he did. In 1992 GW Bush was riding high in the polls due to the Gulf War.

    I admit a strong bias, but Gavin Newsom has in fact put together a strong coalition similar to Joe Biden.
    What a lot of pundits don’t realize is that California is very much like America itself. Look at an electoral map broken down to the county level and the map of California looks pretty much like America. Trump got more votes in California than anywhere else and much of the Chaos Caucus hails from the “liberal” state.

    Here in California the fable “swing” voters- the moderate Democrats, independents, middle of the road small business owners and suburban moms- have opted to vote Democratic, and (this is the important part), largely because A, the California Dems are not at all radical, and B, the Republicans are disastrously radical and self-defeating.

    A GW Bush or Reagan style Republican could today run against Newsom and give him a nail-biter contest, but alas for the Republicans the best they could come up with was a comical radio show host.

    Having said all that- After Tuesday’s SOTU, Biden looks like a heavyweight in his prime.

    But again, I admit a bias.Report

  3. Pinky says:

    Editor – Duplicates of first few paragraphs.Report

  4. Saul Degraw says:

    Let’s make this thought experiment even more fun. A black hole comes to the United States tomorrow and swallows up Trump, DeSantis, Biden, Harris, and McCarthy. Patty Murray becomes President of the United States because she is fourth in line as President Pro Tempore of the Senate but decides not to run in 2024 because she has a phobia of being swallowed up by black holes.

    Who do the party’s run in 2024?Report

    • Pinky in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      Kerry – he couldn’t run as an alternative to Biden in our reality because he’s only a year younger, but he could run in this scenario. Senate, foreign policy, climate change credentials. Assuming the nation is in a black hole crisis, he’d be a calming elder statesman.

      Cruz – He’d love to be president, and with the two strongest pollers off the scene, nobody could stand up to him.Report

      • North in reply to Pinky says:

        Well done Pinky- you have found a scenarion in which Cruz could credibly be elected President; the voters and his party would totally go for it on the plausible chance Cruz would end up in a black hole.Report

        • Pinky in reply to North says:

          The Cruz hate is legendary on the left. They trade stories about it like Pokemon cards. I could see him getting the GOP nom one day though. He’s smart and has high name recognition, and as a person, he’s more likeable than the other guy I mentioned.Report

  5. Saul Degraw says:

    More seriously, I think Biden is one of the most underestimated politicians in the United States. The SOTU address showed he can be very effective against a heckler’s veto and he basically lead Republicans off a cliff and they were all too eager to be a pack of lemmings (yes, I know lemmings really do not commit suicide by running off cliffs en masse.)
    On the other hand, a lot can change in a person from 82-86.

    Trump has decided it is knives out for DeSantis and I have not seen any Republican except the few remaining anti-Trumpers be able to avoid destruction from Trump so DeSantis is probably a goner.

    If not Biden, I like Gavin Newsom. He is a governor of a large blue state and has also shown himself very capable of pushing back against Trump and DeSantis. There are a lot of Democrats who are a bit meh on him because they think he is a bit too slick. Newsom’s sometime nickname is Governor Nicehair. However, I think that can work to his advantage against Trump and DeSantis because it becomes like one frat boy telling another “Dude, not cool. Stop being a dick.”

    Other possibilites are Governor Whitmer from Michigan and Senator Warnock from Georgia (though this would mean a Republican gain in the Senate because Kemp would pick his replacement).Report

    • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      A Newsome-Whitmer ticket would be a thing to watch . . . .Report

    • LeeEsq in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      Newsom looks the most out of central casting. I don’t think he wants to be President though. Rather than having a super majority in the legislature, he will have a heavily divided Congress and one or two spanners in the works of his own party to deal with.Report

    • Greg In Ak in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      Slick Cali guy is tailor made to be hated by lots of people. Not sure how he brings in difficult purple states. D’s need someone to bring the middle 5% of ind voters over the line. D and pols in general suffer from the “distant elite” vibe so we dont’ want to try to sell that. We need someone that connects. I dont’ know if newsome is that guy but his fancy dinner during covid looked bad and shows he is the typical idiotic political instincts of the median D pol.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Greg In Ak says:

        Fetterman definitely shatters the “distant elite” vibe, but I don’t expect the White House is on his radar.Report

      • Saul Degraw in reply to Greg In Ak says:

        My counter to this is the results of 2020 and 2022. Nothing is guaranteed but I think Trump is a largely spent force and the results from 2022 in Trump to Biden states (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) show that there is not a real appetite for the DeSantis culture war in those states either.Report

        • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

          show that there is not a real appetite for the DeSantis culture war in those states either.

          I’m not convinced its the policies so much as the wrapper.Report

        • Greg In Ak in reply to Saul Degraw says:

          Trump has always been a loser. He lost the vote to hillary so he’ll lose the pop vote to biden again. But margins are going to be super thin. Slick Cali guy sounds like a guy tailor made to look bad and sound bad. Having a Cali gov plays into the stereotypes of D’s that doesn’t help in a lot of places.

          I dont’ think RDS culture war will play well. But like i mentioned about Hillary being more popular then trump. True but the EC is there and we need someone who will pick up the last couple states and not just get more votes.Report

          • InMD in reply to Greg In Ak says:

            I also think it’s just hard to tell how Dems from coastal blue states will do under pressure. They’ve usually gotten where they are through intra-party intrigue and maneuvering. Beating Republicans in a swing state is a different beast.Report

        • InMD in reply to Saul Degraw says:

          I agree with you that wherever we are, it is passed peak Trump, not that you can rule out the possibility of some weird chain of events resulting in him running the table again. However I still think Midwesterners and preferably governors are the better bet for national fortunes, if for no other reason than they’ve probably got some experience winning the kind of people they need to in today’s political geography.Report

  6. Burt Likko says:

    This essay is a great reminder that in practice, politics is frequently the art of selecting That Which Is Least Bad.Report

  7. Ken S says:

    Re: Kamala Harris “hasn’t stood out in her current job.” Can you name any vice president in our entire history who stood out as vice president? OK, there’s Dick Cheney who talked George Mortimer S. Bush into starting two disastrous wars. Aside from him.Report

  8. Crprod says:

    A quick review of the GOP bench during basketball season reveals that they were largely walk-ons. As far as I can tell, Pence got the VP nomination because he appeared to be intelligent enough not to be part of that group.Report