Throughput: AI Sexbot Edition

Michael Siegel

Michael Siegel is an astronomer living in Pennsylvania. He blogs at his own site, and has written a novel.

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60 Responses

  1. Chip Daniels says:

    I heard that one of the most sought after services from escorts is the “girlfriend experience”, which I assumed was just hiring a woman to say things like “Are you going to wear that shirt?” or maybe “Pick up some TP on your way home and don’t forget about Sunday dinner with my mother”.

    The man who creates a sexbot to do that will be the next Bill Gates.Report

  2. Myra d'Angelo says:

    ThTh1: Your data is entirely incomplete. Start your ages at 9 years old, if you’re lucky. How many AIs can emulate the personality of a nine year old? Enough to convince a 40 year old Koch that she’s “not happy to be here”?
    Yes, it’s perhaps possible that people who are interested in hiring Adult Women actually want a personality.
    But, without the data exploring how many people are interested in 9 year olds. 13 year olds. 16 year olds, you aren’t exploring the low-hanging fruit.

    How many people would pay for a “drunken Sexbot” model? Personality: Drunk Off Her Ass.
    Certainly, some people would pay for a sexbot who is passed out (see KIDS).

    ThTh2 and ThTh4 may be related. How often do you measure gravity to 10 significant digits?Report

  3. InMD says:

    Th1 You can always tell it is AI because of the hands. Zoom in on the fingers. Shudder.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

      The side conversation on this is Deep Fakes. Is AI ‘good enough’ to customize the porn experience with pictures/celebrities/specs. At which point, pesky details like fingers don’t matter.

      I’ve thought and will continue to think that we’re going to be really surprised by ‘augmented reality’ altering ‘truth’ with regards lots of things that we process visually. Politics and probably law/justice (as related concepts) will be downstream of the porn proof-of-concept work.Report

      • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

        It’s certainly a disturbing possibility. My wife and I have an inside joke where every time we see someone on a news/talking head show with an odd tick or appearance we talk odds on the person being an android. We’ll have to start factoring in whether or not hands are visible.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

          One of the Sunday Morning shows had a segment with an Adobe exec. And the thing about Sunday Morning shows (as I’m sure you know) is that they are the last remaining bastion of old school establishment propaganda. And the key message from that interview was that Adobe, Microsoft, Google and all the other tech giants in the digital image space had more or less abandoned the idea of ‘disproving’ a deep fake after the fact, but instead were focusing on basically image Lineage/chain-of-custody.

          The idea was that if the image/video you were looking at didn’t have the Lineage Symbol (i forget their marketing term) then you should put your skeptical hat on. And they ‘demo’d’ how a curated image could be traced to the original and we could all see how it had been altered to ‘fit a narrative’.

          My takeaway was not that this was a great idea that was going to work, but holy crap, these people are clutching at straws and they know it.Report

          • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

            I’m not surprised, and to your point, we’re building the ability to deceive way faster than the ability to establish trustworthiness. I actually worked at a company that had patented some concepts related to securing a digital identity. Totally different use cases in mind, but some parallel kinds of challenges and considerations. Making any of it work of course all requires agreeing to standards, but beyong the standards someone has to have credibility to create and enforce them. Who would that even be? I don’t have an answer.Report

        • Myra d'Angelo in reply to InMD says:

          Have you seen the clip of Pelosi? The “Good Morning, Sunday Morning” one.
          The explanation for it is really, really intricate and lengthy, but … Yeah.Report

  4. LeeEsq says:

    Now, two of those women were dark haired and one looked Asian, so the AI knows that not all the white male porn addicts that created it like the same thing. 😉Report

  5. LeeEsq says:

    I always assumed that the point of a sexbot was that it was a physical thing that you could have sex with. Basically a very advanced and life sized sex toy that could interact with you. An AI generated masturbation image is not a sexbot per se.Report

  6. Jaybird says:

    I wouldn’t see the threat as being “AI women will replace women” as much as “AI women will replace nothing at all”.

    I happen to be in a circle where pretty much everybody I know personally (defined as “share a meal with occasionally”) is married. Those that aren’t married are between relationships. So this won’t have an impact on me or my circle at all.

    HOWEVER.

    My college years were spent being painfully single. Many of my close friends in my college years were also painfully single.

    Would I have *WANTED* an AI Girlfriend? No. Absolutely not.
    Would I have *SETTLED FOR* an AI Girlfriend? There are weeks that I might have.

    It’s *THERE* that we have to worry about AI Chicks. Not that they’d replace women. But that they’d replace nothing.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Michael Siegel says:

        It’s the margins where we’ll see this manifest for (short-term) good or (long-term) ill.

        Here’s where we talked about GPT-3 back in 2021.

        How far has GPT come in the last two years? I was fiddling about with it and asking it to write a script. I showed the script to my buddies and they said “it didn’t do X or Y.”

        So I changed my prompt and told it to do X and Y. I showed them the new script and they said that this was a lot better.

        The bots can script and, with a little refinement and testing, can tell you that you need to be better at asking for what you want.

        What will GPT-4 be capable of? Good lord, what will GPT-5 be capable of? If GPT-5 can write a GPT-3 without guardrails…

        Well, the margins will move.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Jaybird says:

      Yeah, I don’t really understand the leap to existential replacement; we have more than enough data that there are significant ‘market inefficiencies’ with regards sex. This just seems like a potentially big Opportunity Cost issue that is already present and can escalate.

      The physical mechanics aren’t there, but hard to see how AI/Porn won’t defeat OnlyFans as a virtual product. Which will include increased opportunity costs as the barriers to entry for OnlyFans (and the like) are reduced and customized content is improved. No robots or meat-space required (yet).Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Marchmaine says:

        One of the funny tweets out there showed a woman in her late 20’s talking about how much she thought her future boyfriend should spend on an engagement ring. $30k or $40k was the answer.

        The funny part was the comment that said something along the lines of “so let’s imagine a 6’3″ investment banker who has $40k to spend on a ring. Why would he pick this woman instead of one who is younger, dumber, and more demure?”

        The comment finished up: “There are a lot of weebs in basements who want an orgy with multiple bikini babes but they at least know that that’s never going to happen.”

        AI and VR and whatnot cannot give the weeb in the basement what they want. But they can give a poor facimile of what they want. And the poor facimile gets less poor by the year.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Marchmaine says:

        The current argument on the Anglophone Left is that humans just need to deal with these market inefficiencies.Report

        • Marchmaine in reply to LeeEsq says:

          Sure, the problem is that ‘deal with’ and dealing with market inefficiencies are outside the Anglophone Lefts ability to control. They [the ineficiencies] will be dealt with.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Damon says:

      I remember an old column of Michael Kinsey’s from back in the early oughts.

      He was talking about the Martha Stewart Principle of how putting in 25% more effort can give you something 10% better… and how he’s also noticed that you can get something 75% as good by putting in half the effort. Don’t bother chopping everything individually. Just throw it in the blender and hit purée.

      And, let’s face it, if you’re making supper for one, you probably don’t need to mince garlic cloves. Just use the stuff from the jar.

      And if you’re not getting a girlfriend to introduce to the parents and you don’t need to make sure that she’s compatible with the siblings enough to handle the occasional holiday dinner and you don’t need to have her show up for board game night with your board game friends…

      Well, you don’t need to use the Martha Stewart Principle, do you? “Good enough” requires a lot less effort.Report

    • Burt Likko in reply to Damon says:

      You have one of two reactions to this scene, and it depends on whether you believe that there is something autonomous and self-aware in K’s and Joi’s programmed minds the same way that there’s something autonomous and self-aware in our biological minds. Or, if you prefer, something that the more faithful among us call a “soul.”

      If you think these are autonomous, sentient entities the same way we are, this is a lovely vignette of a man giving his partner something she’s always wanted, something that will let her transcend her limitations and open up a vast new world for her. It’s hard to imagine a more loving sort of gift. The rules that society puts in place for the creation of these entities becomes hugely problematic at that point, but governing and incorporating them into the rest of society becomes a question of recognizing their personhood, and the events of their existences can be evaluated and understood the same way the events of a natural person’s.

      That’s the easier way to process this movie, and this scene in particular. The harder way is if you think they are programmed and lack the “soul” unique to humanity. The ways the events of the scene become problematic is perhaps to long to comfortably list here, and eventually elevates to an understanding that we’re watching a portrayal of a fiction (the fiction of K’s humanity) interacting with a different kind of portrayal of a fiction (the fiction of Joi’s humanity) within a still different kind of portrayal of a fiction (we’re watching a movie, after all).Report

  7. Doctor Jay says:

    One of the things, an important thing, I want from a sexual experience is to have another person – for me, a woman – there with me who wants me. Who desires me. Who will enjoy what we are about to do. Can a bot ever do that for me? (Clearly, I also want to feel the same way about her).

    Honestly, I’m skeptical that a sex worker can do that. How could a bot?Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to Doctor Jay says:

      I think we’re looking at the evolution of Bot. This is a Bot that can pass the bar exam… presumably even lawyers can express desire. Or be trained to, anyhow.Report

      • Burt Likko in reply to Marchmaine says:

        Lawyerbots will be programmed to desire and seek out billing opportunities. Accountantbots will be programmed to desire and seek out accounts collectible opportunities. Investmentbankerbots will be programmed to desire and seek out arbitrage opportunities.

        Perhaps ChatGPT will simulate outside interests on their resumes, like playing the piano or breeding carnivorous reptiles. As long as we don’t need to see AI generated fingers and hands on the bio pictures, maybe we won’t even notice the difference.Report

        • Chip Daniels in reply to Burt Likko says:

          I remain convinced that AI will be to white collar professionals in the 21st century what electro-motive power was to blue collar tradesmen in the 20th.

          We won’t be replaced exactly, but the AI will hoover up the high value skillsets leaving us with the human interface.

          Much of what we in the professions (Law, Medicine, Engineering/ Design) do is actually very suitable to algorithm and machine learning.

          Being presented with inputs of a problem, searching a vast database for comparables and frameworks, then synthesizing a proposed solution.

          It will act as a de facto ceiling on fees more than a driver of unemployment.Report

          • To judge what I read from fellow solo and small firm lawyers via our e-mail exchanges, this prospect absolutely terrifies some of my colleagues. Probably some of yours too. But I agree, a lot of professional services are really little more than complex algorithms.

            The real trick in my field will be if/when AI can figure out that a person is likely lying (as opposed to just nervous).Report

            • KenB in reply to Burt Likko says:

              I was recently chatting with a med student and asked him what he was thinking to specialize in. He said “surgery”, partly because it involved physical skills that weren’t as close to being obsoleted as the specialties that are more about knowledge and analysis. He’s talked to young radiologists who are getting nervous as they see AI systems increasingly able to, say, take in an x-ray and deliver a diagnosis and next steps.Report

            • LeeEsq in reply to Burt Likko says:

              Lawyers are going to be protected by license requirements until that is amended. The big test will be for court room lawyers or places where having an in person advocate and negotiator is important.Report

              • Marchmaine in reply to LeeEsq says:

                Think of it more as a ChatGPT concierge… licensed lawyers will still review and deliver the content. But the work? Well, like eDiscovery, eLaw will serve up the recommended strategy, rhetoric and citations.

                Until we get sexy lawyer bots that can talk… then you’re sunk.Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to LeeEsq says:

                This. Lawyers are heavily over-represented in most of the legislative bodies in the US. That will matter.

                When I lived in New Jersey many years ago, literally 98% of the legislators had a law degree. Buying a house required a minimum of two lawyers, one for the buyer and one for the seller. A third to represent the firm issuing the loan if there was a mortgage. Maybe a fourth to represent one of the brokers. The room where our closing occurred was full.

                It was kind of stunning when we moved to Colorado and learned buying the house here required zero lawyers.Report

              • LeeEsq in reply to Michael Cain says:

                Same in New York, one lawyer for the buyer, seller, and mortgage issuer was required to buy property. In California, no lawyers involved. Basically lawyers are in a better position to protect themselves than other professions because we write the laws.Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Burt Likko says:

              I imagine that the legalzoom stuff will be easiest to replicate.

              Courtroom stuff? Yeah, humans will be necessary as long as judges remain human.

              But stuff like patents or businesses or wills? Yeah, that’ll be a problem.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird says:

                What’s going to be unreplaceable is reasoning.

                Which, again–we’re living in the “Snow Crash” future. Library systems can find any knowledge you can imagine exists, but they can’t identify the connections between multiple piece of knowledge (although with enough context definition they could connect one person’s summary with another’s.)

                So I could tell the computer “find a way to pack an arbitrary number of items of varying value into a finite volume in such a way that total value is maximized”, and the computer will start doing that, but you need a human to say “this is taking too long, let’s just pick the best one so far…”Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Doctor Jay says:

      I have to phrase this part gingerly:

      I am a pretty good cook. Amateur, to be sure… but I make pretty good food and other people are pleased to eat it after I make it. I have had people ask me for my recipes. I have had people tell me that they enjoyed eating the food that they have made with my recipes.

      Last week, I doctored up an Alfredo from Costco and it was *REALLY* good. I make a decent red sauce. I use the red sauce to make decent homemade pizzas. I can also do really simple stuff like assemble a sandwich (but I also know to put it under the broiler for 45 seconds before closing it).

      I make good food and it’s healthier than fast food.

      But I still sometimes grab a McDouble Bundle when I drive past McDonald’s and I just need some calories to get me to suppertime.

      I spent a lot of time in my late teens and early 20s just being hungry.Report

    • John Puccio in reply to Doctor Jay says:

      Eventually the sex bots will be able to fake it better than Meg Ryan.Report

  8. LeeEsq says:

    The Left is pretty split when it comes to sex work. The younger faction tends to be for legalization of all forms of commercial sex but there is an older faction that still finds commercial sex objectionable. This isn’t because they hate workers but because they believe that, at least for heterosexual men, any person who pays for commercial sex is a low-status creep that shouldn’t be having sex with anybody let alone be able to pay for it. It would be interesting to see how the politics and ideological debates involving sex work plays out once a viable sex bot comes along. Humans being humans, I can see all sorts of anti-sex bot arguments developing that roughly parallel those regarding sex work despite no real human being involved.Report

  9. Chip Daniels says:

    I was joking about the AI powered vibrator, but the conversation I’ve seen online seems to validate the feminist critique of media in that women’s voices are not heard, and the entire conversation is driven by men speaking of their desires.

    Like, the thinking seems to envision women as entirely passive objects upon who action is rendered, rather than active participants.
    What would female consumers of AI want? Gay males, lesbians, trans people- what are their thoughts on AI and how it would serve their desires?

    I get that the marketplace isn’t going to be driven by the 10% gay or 2% trans segment, but the 50% female segment seems like a lucrative territory which is currently being unexplored.

    If the history of pornography is any guide, the female AI product will be asymmetrical.
    That is, there really is no symmetrical female counterpart to the vast heterosexual porn/ sex industry. But the romance novel / Hallmark movie industry seems to be thriving.Report

    • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      There are more heterosexual men who seem to enjoy entertainment purely about banging than heterosexual woman. At least in terms of paying for it and watching it. So SexBot people will go where the money is.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to LeeEsq says:

        Well, we’re a couple of dudes talking about What Women Want so we are operating from a position of ignorance.

        But being dudes that shouldn’t stop us amirite.

        What if there is a large pool of older single women, who have money and aren’t desperate for a man, or even want the hassle of a man, but want some parts of what men can offer.

        Like, oh I don’t know, a device that can talk and be witty and compassionate, a good listener who likes to snuggle and can not only vibrate you to orgasm but talk afterwards about how unbearable your mother is.

        Sort of related to my reply to rexknobus, where the form of AI will not be symmetrical to men or even take a form that we can envision right now, but satisfies the requirements and taps into a large enough market segment to make the R&D worthwhile.Report

        • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          Meh, people talk about things they don’t know about all the time. I think we have enough information to take some educated guesses where the biggest market for SexBots is going to be and that will be cis-gendered men no matter what gender they are attracted too. Are there plenty of heterosexual men that would want a living woman for the emotional elements of romance/sex? Yes. Are there plenty of heterosexual men that might find a sexbot AI good enough on occasion? Also yes.Report

    • If we’re understanding sexbots as more akin to sophisticated sex toys than they are akin to substitutes for human sex partners, then of course there will be a significant market for women.Report

    • Damon in reply to Chip Daniels says:

      Women make decisions on the vast majority of all spending decisions in the US economy. They why the marketing is geared to them. We already know what women want….just watch the Hallmark channel on cable or any romance novel. It may take more time to work that out AI wise than just a “bang bot” but I’ll get done, trust me.Report

  10. rexknobus says:

    A question somewhat related to the ThTh1 sexbot story. Despite their constant appearance in science fiction stories and movies is there any possible reason for robots to have human form other than as sexbots?Report

    • Jaybird in reply to rexknobus says:

      Customer service.Report

      • rexknobus in reply to Jaybird says:

        Are you referring to a sexbot’s “customer service,” or to talking with people on the telephone/online who try to help me out of a software jam? No need for human form in the latter.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to rexknobus says:

          I mean, like, standing in line somewhere.

          Remember the Passengers movie? Like the bartender.Report

          • rexknobus in reply to Jaybird says:

            I see your point. Joe Turkel in “The Shining.” No need for the bartender to exist beneath the waist. The “Johnny Cab” in “Total Recall,” except that we already have (for better or worse) self-driving vehicles and no one is putting humanoid joke-spitters in the driver’s seat. But, yeah, the bartender thing might work.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to rexknobus says:

      Most of the developed world is shaped to accommodate humans. For example, if an AI robot is smart enough to understand and carry out the order, “Take this basket of dirty clothes down to the laundry, sort the whites and colors, start the whites in the washing machine with one soap pod and a half-cup of Oxyclean.” The robot carrying the basket has to fit through the door, fit in the hall, navigate the stairs, get around the furniture, open and close washing machine doors and soap containers, manipulate controls.

      The classic example is the driver’s seat in a car. Everything about it assumes a human shape.Report

      • rexknobus in reply to Michael Cain says:

        Reading your list of tasks and asking myself if I designed bot to do all that what would it look like, I ended up with a vague mental picture that looked a lot like WALL-E. Is WALL-E humanoid? I guess YMMV, but not particularly to me (nice expressive “eyes” though). And, of course, you would only have to give bot the instructions once and get the service for a long time to come.

        The easy chair/recliner in my living room does a much better job of assuming my human shape than does my car seat. The car seat is fine, and after a long walk in the mountains, I love sitting down on it…but I’d prefer the La-Z-Boy back home. I think the car seat doesn’t assume my reclining desires or my desire for lower leg raising. I do like the cup holders though.Report

    • Chip Daniels in reply to rexknobus says:

      No, and this is what I’m thinking of, that how “automation” takes forms that we aren’t even aware of.

      For example, if you walked into Sterling Cooper in 1961 and told Don Draper that the entire secretarial pool would be fully automated by the year 2000, he would just naturally envision a floor filled with pretty female robots typing away on electric typewriters.

      But of course that’s not the way it happened; the advent of word processing and email and other advances didn’t just replace the woman typing “Carbon Copy” (what we call “cc”) but it eliminated the very need to have a separation between thinking a thought and typing the thought and distributing the thought to millions.
      Today’s Don Draper simply thumbs a message on his handheld device and sends it instantly to a thousand clients.

      The very way that we work will change in ways we aren’t able to envision.Report

      • When I joined Bell Laboratories in 1978, the convention was that engineers took hand-written documents to the typing pool and received, after a week or two (depending on the work load) an error-filled typed version. Multiple edit and resubmit cycles followed, covering most of the documents, because new errors were introduced as old ones were corrected.

        Then UNIX came out of Research, along with the troff/nroff formatting tools. The typing pool got those and became more efficient because creating new errors largely disappeared. Then the typing pool did the initial document entry and e-mailed the result to the author. Engineers became responsible for corrections. Somewhere along the line eqn appeared to deal with math, pic to deal with majority of drawings, and grap to do graphs. When I need a table that looks reasonably attractive, I still dump the data into tbl then cut-and-paste the image because it’s easier and faster than trying to get Word or Excel to do a reasonable job, and is entirely consistent across printed documents and the Web.

        Then they dumped the typing pool and made engineers responsible for their own document entry. This by 1980, or 1981 at the latest. The Labs did nothing in the way of touch-typing classes. I cringed when I walked by some of the older engineers’ offices: tic… tic… tic… as they typed from their handwritten version. Who knows how many million engineer-hours were wasted?

        I actually got in a modest amount of trouble for a while because the instant UNIX/troff/nroff was available, I composed at the company keyboard (where oldsters could see me) instead of composing at home in the evening on a typewriter. I had to demonstrate for my department head that I could compose at the keyboard.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Chip Daniels says:

        This generally works out but the decrease in clerical staff has made life much more stressful for lawyers because in addition to doing what lawyers have to do and what clerical staff has to do.

        The goal of a sexbot is always going to be something more interactive than exists now. It could end up as some sort of mental hook up VR thing more than anything else though.Report

  11. Chip Daniels says:

    *Les Nessman voice*

    We see the Chinese balloon now, drifting slowly over the Montana sky, the Big Sky Country, heartland of America and home of open range cowboys, sturdy ranchers and cattlemen, and oh wait, there is something coming out of the balloon, its, a bird, no wait, is something heavy, its dropping fast and plummeting to the ground perhaps its a message of some kind OH MY GOD ITS TURKEYS!!!Report