2023 Oscar Projections: And The Nominees Are…

It feels just like yesterday, back last Spring, when I looked at the initial contenders for Best Picture. Unlike the very safe and predictable 2021-2022 season that preceded this one, this race has ended up being much more of an unpredictable and wild roller coaster ride. Films that were considered major players fell flat on their face at their festival premiers, and movies that climbed their way up thanks in part to those falling down the ladder ended up fading as we started to hit the homestretch. Some major would-be contenders got delayed until next year as well. Thus we are on the cusp of the most mainstream friendly and diverse set of Best Picture nominees for an Oscars race in quite some time.

The movie I had slated as the early frontrunner, Babylon, may have ended up a personal favorite of mine for the year but has also ended up being one of the most divisive films of the season and is just fighting to even get a nomination at this point. The film I had in second place, The Fabelmans, has been the frontrunner since the film festival season and has held on since to a very precarious lead thanks in large part to two movies that at the outset I had on the outside looking in with Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees Of Inisherin giving it a run for its money. As we head into nominations morning, I now believe those latter two have surpassed it and we have a new frontrunner in the race. At the moment those are the top three right in the thick of it for what will win the grand prize, and all three have enjoyed getting their flowers in Best Picture races from various awards bodies including highbrow critics groups and the early major award ceremonies.

Right behind them as dark horses attempting a late CODA like surge is one movie that many deem as a potential player in Elvis and another in a film no one thought would be a contender for the prize much less be talked about to have a shot to go all the way in Top Gun: Maverick. Add in the critical darling TAR, the international pick by the industry voters in the All Quiet On The Western Front German remake, and the biggest box office grosser of the year in Avatar: The Way Of Water and we have eight slots that are locked in to make the Picture race. These eight you can take to the bank, they’ve all made the key places a movie wants to get in to show strength going into nominations morning.

Unlike last year when there were about four or five trying to squeeze in, we have two open slots and at least twelve movies that I believe can conceivably find their way in as that 9th or 10th film. All have either gotten some major momentum sometime during the season or have shown up as nominees in other award bodies. From the aforementioned Babylon to the little seen Women Talking to the big international sensation RRR to the MCU flick Black Panther: Wakanda Forever to the late breaker of the season in The Whale and many others more. I can’t remember the last time the makeup of the Best Picture ten was so unpredictable. Its exciting, but also nerve-racking for people like me trying to predict what gets in.

I believe Picture  starts out a battle between a respected veteran Director telling his life story, an audacious new duo of Directors that created a new classic, and a beloved writer of great dialogue who has given us a new Irish tragic comedy. I believe Director is a battle between the icon Spielberg and the up and coming Daniels duo. I believe Actor is a three-way race between Butler, Farrell, and Fraser. I believe Actress is a bloodbath with the top two being a tight battle between Blanchett and Yeoh. I believe Supporting Actor is a Ke Huy Quan sweep, and Supporting Actress could end up being Angela Bassett’s moment if the others in the race don’t have anything else to say about it. I believe both screenplay races are wide open. And those are just the above-the-line races.

Below you’ll find my belief on what and who will get called on nominations morning for what category, and the long lists of what I think are potential contenders knowing I’ll get some wrong.

 

Best Picture: 3-Way Battle Between The Top 3

Final Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. Elvis
05. TAR
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Top Gun: Maverick
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water
09. The Whale
10. Babylon

Watch Out For:
11. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
12. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
13. Women Talking
14. She Said
15. Living
16. Triangle Of Sadness
17. Aftersun
18. RRR
19. The Woman King
20. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

Potential Stunner:
21. The Batman

 

Best Director: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
02. Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Field (TAR)
05. Berger (All Quiet On The Western Front)

Watch Out For:
06. Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
07. Luhrmann (Elvis)
08. Cameron (Avatar: The Way Of Water)
09. Rajamouli (RRR)
10. Ostlund (Triangle Of Sadness)

Potential Stunner:
11. Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)

 

Best Actor: 3-Way Battle Between The Top 3

Final Projection:
01. Fraser (The Whale)
02. Butler (Elvis)
03. Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Nighy (Living)
05. Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)

Watch Out For:
06. Mescal (Aftersun)
07. Labelle (The Fabelmans)
08. Calva (Babylon)
09. Sandler (Hustle)
10. Hanks (A Man Called Otto)

Potential Stunner:
11. Fiennes (The Menu)

 

Best Actress: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. Blanchett (TAR)
02. Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
03. Davis (The Woman King)
04. de Armas (Blonde)
05. Williams (The Fabelmans)

Watch Out For:
06. Deadwyler (Till)
07. Robbie (Babylon)
08. Colman (Empire Of Light)
09. Thompson (Good Luck To You, Leo Grande)
10. Ackie (Whitney Houston: I Wanna’ Dance With Somebody)

Potential Stunner:
11. Riseborough (To Leslie)

 

Best Supporting Actor: Leans Quan

Final Projection:
01. Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
02. Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
04. Dano (The Fabelmans)
05. Redmayne (The Good Nurse)

Watch Out For:
06. Pitt (Babylon)
07. Tyree Henry (Causeway)
08. Whishaw (Women Talking)
09. Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
10. Hanks (Elvis)

Potential Stunner:
11. Schuch (All Quiet On The Western Front)

 

Best Supporting Actress: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
02. Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
03. Chau (The Whale)
04. Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once)
05. Hsu (Everything Everywhere All At Once)

Watch Out For:
06. De Leon (Triangle Of Sadness)
07. Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)
08. Buckley (Women Talking)
09. Mulligan (She Said)
10. Hoss (TAR)

Potential Stunner:
11. Williams (The Fabelmans) ← Potential Category Swap

 

Best Original Screenplay: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. The Banshees of Inisherin
03. The Fabelmans
04. TAR
05. Triangle Of Sadness

Watch Out For:
06. Aftersun
07. Decision To Leave
08. Babylon
09. The Woman King
10. Elvis

Potential Stunner:
11. The Menu

 

Best Adapted Screenplay: A Pure Tossup

Final Projection:
01. The Whale
02. Women Talking
03. Living
04. She Said
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

Watch Out For:
06. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
07. Top Gun: Maverick
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water
09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
10. White Noise

Potential Stunner:
11. Bones And All

 

Best Animated Feature: Leans Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Final Projection:
01. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
02. Marcel The Shell With Shoes On
03. Puss In Boots: The Last Wish
04. Turning Red
05. Wendell And Wild

Watch Out For:
06. The Sea Beast
07. My Father’s Dragon
08. Inu-Oh
09. The Bad Guys
10. Minions: Rise Of Gru

Potential Stunner:
11. Strange World

 

Best Animated Short: A Pure Tossup

Final Projection:
01. The Boy, The Mole, The Fox And The Horse
02. New Moon
03. Save Ralph
04. My Year Of Dicks
05. The Flying Sailor

Watch Out For:
06. Ice Merchants
07. An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It
08. It’s Nice In Here
09. Sierra
10. Black Slide

Potential Stunner:
11. The Debutante

 

Best International Film: Leans All Quiet On The Western Front

Final Projection:
01. All Quiet On The Western Front
02. Decision To Leave
03. Argentina 1985
04. Bardo
05. The Quiet Girl

Watch Out For:
06. Close
07. EO
08. Saint Omer
09. Holy Spider
10. Return To Seoul

Potential Stunner:
11. Joyland

 

Best Live Action Short: A Pure Tossup

Final Projection:
01. Le Pullipe
02. An Irish Goodbye
03. Warsha
04. The Red Suitcase
05. Nakam

Watch Out For:
06. Ivalu
07. The Lone Wolf
08. The Treatment
09. Sideral
10. Almost Home

Potential Stunner:
11. Plastic Killer

 

Best Documentary Feature: A Pure Tossup

Final Projection:
01. All The Beauty And The Bloodshed
02. All That Breathes
03. Fire Of Love
04. Navalny
05. Descendant

Watch Out For:
06. Moonage Daydream
07. The Janes
08. Retrograde
09. Bad Axe
10. The Territory

Potential Stunner:
11. Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song

 

Final Projection:
01. The Flagmakers
02. 38 At The Garden
03. How Do You Measure A Year?
04. The Elephant Whisperers
05. Nuisance Bear

Watch Out For:
06. The Martha Mitchell Effect
07. Holding Moses
08. As Far As They Can Run
09. Haulot
10. Anastasia

Potential Stunner:
11. Stranger At The Gate

 

Best Original Song: 3-Way Battle Between The Top 3

Final Projection:
01. “Naatu Naatu”; RRR
02. “Hold My Hand”; Top Gun: Maverick
03. “Lift Me Up”; Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
04. “Ciao Papa”; Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
05. “Applause”; Tell It Like A Woman

Watch Out For:
06. “Carolina”; Where The Crawdads Sing
07. “New Body Roomba”; White Noise
08. “This Is A Life”; Everything Everywhere All At Once
09. “You Give Me Strength”; Avatar: The Way Of Water
10. “Stand Up”; Till

Potential Stunner:
11. “Good Afternoon”; Spirited

 

Best Original Score: Tilts Babylon

Final Projection:
01. Babylon
02. Women Talking
03. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
04. The Banshees Of Inisherin
05. The Fabelmans

Watch Out For:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. The Woman King
08. Everything Everywhere All At Once
09. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Potential Stunner:
11. She Said

 

Best Sound: Leans Top Gun: Maverick

Final Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. Everything Everywhere All At Once
03. Elvis
04. All Quiet On The Western Front
05. Avatar: The Way Of Water

Watch Out For:
06. Babylon
07. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
08. The Batman
09. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Potential Stunner:
10. Moonage Daydream

 

Best Editing: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. Everything Everywhere All At Once
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. The Banshees Of Inisherin
04. Elvis
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

Watch Out For:
06. The Fabelmans
07. TAR
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water
09. Babylon
10. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Potential Stunner:
11. Women Talking

 

Best Cinematography: Leans Top Gun: Maverick

Final Projection:
01. Top Gun: Maverick
02. All Quiet On The Western Front
03. Elvis
04. The Batman
05. Empire Of Light

Watch Out For:
06. The Fabelmans
07. The Banshees Of Inisherin
08. Avatar: The Way Of Water
09. Babylon
10. Bardo

Potential Stunner:
11. TAR

 

Best Visual Effects: Leans Avatar: The Way Of Water

Final Projection:
01. Avatar: The Way Of Water
02. Top Gun: Maverick
03. All Quiet On The Western Front
04. The Batman
05. Thirteen Lives

Watch Out For:
06. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
07. Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness
08. Nope
09. Jurassic World: Dominion

Potential Stunner:
10. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets Of Dumbledore

 

Best Production Design: Tilts Babylon

Final Projection:
01. Babylon
02. Elvis
03. Avatar: The Way Of Water
04. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
05. All Quiet On The Western Front

Watch Out For:
06. Everything Everywhere All At Once
07. The Banshees Of Inisherin
08. The Fabelmans
09. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
10. Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Potential Stunner:
11. The Batman

 

Best Costume Design: Tilts Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Final Projection:
01. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
02. Elvis
03. Babylon
04. The Woman King
05. Mrs Harris Goes To Paris

Watch Out For:
06. Everything Everywhere All At Once
07. The Fabelmans
08. Living
09. Women Talking
10. Corsage

Potential Stunner:
11. Amsterdam

 

Best Makeup & Hair: Tossup Between The Top 2

Final Projection:
01. The Whale
02. Elvis
03. Blonde
04. The Batman
05. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Watch Out For:
06. All Quiet On The Western Front
07. Babylon
08. Amsterdam
09. Crimes Of The Future

Potential Stunner:
10. Emancipation