Could the GOP Make Hay Out of Dobbs?

Over at CNN, Patrick Brown has taken a novel approach in GOP circles to answering the problem of the GOP dog having caught the Roe V. Wade car with the Dobbs ruling this past summer.  Unlike “normal” GOP campaign advisors and pundits who caution ignoring the subject and scrubbing web sites of references to it, https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/13/opinions/gop-republican-roe-abortion-midterm-elections-brown/index.html”>Brown seems to think that the GOP should confront its own victory here, mostly because he thinks the issue seems to be fading in polling:

In fact, polling by FiveThirtyEight suggests abortion has begun to fade from some voters’ minds, as inflation remains stubbornly high, crime rates stay elevated and fears of an economic downturn continue to grow. In the immediate wake of the Dobbs ruling in June, 29% of women aged 18 to 44 listed abortion as one of their top three political priorities. In a poll conducted in September, that number had dropped to 12%.

Well sure, they aren’t polling it as much anymore, but given the reporting (consistently) since Dobbs about women registering to vote and closing the gender gap I suspect that its still an important issue that will drive choices.  It may also be that women, recognizing their power to change the Dobbs outcomes during the midterms, no longer see this as an important issue because they can deal with the issue by voting.

Still, Brown believes Republicans have a path forward to showing that their “win” in Dobbs needn’t hurt women:

When the subject comes up, Republicans should remind voters not just of Democrats’ extreme stance on abortion, but stress the importance of addressing the economic and cultural factors that push women to consider it in the first place.

Imagine a voter who feels conflicted about the legality of abortion – personally opposed, maybe, but knows someone in their life who got an abortion because of economic pressures. Pledging to champion expanded funding for safety net programs – like the special supplemental nutrition assistance program for women, infants and children (WIC) and programs that aim to reduce maternal mortality – could help them feel more comfortable voting for a candidate who would support greater abortion restrictions.

There is obviously a strong moral case to be made that Republicans should make life easier for women facing an unexpected pregnancy. But there is a political case as well. An agenda that puts parents first would recognize the importance of a new emphasis on pre- and post-partum support in a post-Roe America. And many moderate voters are turned off by the extreme position on either side of the abortion debate. They could be won over with sensible exemptions around rape and incest, coupled with meaningful support for new moms. Inroads among those voters could be enough to tip the scales in a close race.

Sounds rosey right?  Seems like a grand idea that would help the majority of Americans – who still support access to medically safe abortions up to between 15 and 22 weeks (depending on the poll you consult).  What’s to stop this from working and helping cement GOP midterm wins?

Well for starters, there’s the stubborn refusal by 12 states to accept the federally funded expansion of Medicaid that was and still is an option due to the ACA.  Those states are leaving federal funds on the table (from other bluer states no less) that would provide pre- and post-natal medical support for a good many of their citizens.  It’s no coincidence that those states rejecting the expansion are almost all run by Republicans.

Second, Brown fails to acknowledge, much less muddle on the fact that expanding the other types of support he describes would need either TAX INCREASES, or reallocation of federal funds under existing tax schemes from other places for funding.  Given that 40+ years of trickle down has failed abysmally with tax cuts that have yet to pay for themselves in new revenue through economic growth, Republicans would have to admit that taxation can do economic good.  Call me kooky, but I don’t see a single GOP candidate running right now being willing to do that.

Third, Republicans would have to stop passing those erroneous “fetal heartbeat” abortion restriction laws and stop talking about a national abortion ban.  If only. Even Brown’s “sensible” exceptions are not universal in red state abortion trigger laws, much less other legislation currently under discussion across the nation. They would also need to couple this with acknowledgement of and funding for more free and low cost birth control availability, since there are dozens and dozens of studies that show as access to birth control goes up, abortion demand goes down.

Finally, to really pull this off, Republicans would have to acknowledge that they are wrong both in their rhetoric about why women seek abortions, and that they are wrong about how Americans come to be impoverished in our current economic system.  Bluntly they would have to stop speaking about both things as personal moral failings.   Brown may well be willing to dip his toe in those subjects with his recommendations, but if 40 years of data saying tax cuts don’t trickle down isn’t enough to change the needle on GOP economic orthodoxy, the desire to secure power after Dobbs isn’t going to be enough for these mea culpas either.