Thursday Throughput: Artemis Delayed Edition

Michael Siegel

Michael Siegel is an astronomer living in Pennsylvania. He blogs at his own site, and has written a novel.

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8 Responses

  1. Michael Cain says:

    I listened to much of the press conference. I could not shake the feeling that NASA was saying, “We’re stuck with LH2. Like the Shuttle, launches will be hit or miss — sometimes we’ll get through the countdown and launch, many times we’ll drag it back to the assembly building and futz with the plumbing.”

    I know that NASA didn’t make the decision — this is what you get when Congress chooses to make fundamental design decisions. I know that NASA has shifted as much of the Artemis moon program to RP-1 and methane as they can — the SLS will not haul anything to the moon except the Orion capsule itself.

    You hoped for a successful SLS/Artemis launch this week. I was terrified of it all going horribly wrong as NASA starts cutting corners. If they get a quick fix to this leak, they’re going to ask for an unprecedented second waiver on the battery life for the flight termination system. If they get that, they are slowly but steadily creeping up on the already-extended rated lifetime for the seals between the solid-fuel booster segments.Report

  2. Slade the Leveller says:

    [ThTh8]: I had a lot going on this past weekend, but I really wish I could have made this LeagueFest. I really enjoyed the Portland one. Hopefully, the next one won’t be in 6 years!Report

  3. Kazzy says:

    Re: The Moon

    When you you say returning “this time for good” what do you mean exactly? Building a moon base? Colonizing? Something else?

    How long do people stay on the ISS or whatever space stations we have up there now? Would it be harder/easier/the same/just different to have folks live for a similar amount of time in a base on the moon?Report

    • InMD in reply to Kazzy says:

      My understanding is that the goal is development of a permanent station where people would stay for at least 3 months which then ultimately serves as a staging point for manned missions to Mars.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to Kazzy says:

      Standard tour of duty on the ISS is about six months. SpaceX charges NASA about $60M per seat to haul astronauts up and return them. ULA, once Boeing’s Starliner capsule is in use, will charge about $90M per seat. Orion seats up to seven, and at $2B per launch will cost almost $300M per seat for delivery to lunar orbit if all seven seats are used. There will be some additional charge to haul fuel for the lunar lander by some separate means. Absent some drastic change in plans, a tour on a lunar base this decade will be at least a year, simply because Boeing has flat said the launch tempo for SLS will be no more than once per year until at least the 2030s.

      Regular readers know my opinion — Congress has fallen into the sunk cost fallacy with SLS. Also the jobs program that comes with it. Just from a systems perspective, if you start from the goal of a crewed mission to Mars and return, or from the goal of a permanently staffed base on the Moon, and then work backwards to what Earth launch capabilities you want, SLS is not where you end up.Report

      • Kazzy in reply to Michael Cain says:

        Thanks, though this didn’t quite get at my question.

        If we can keep folks alive for 6 months on the ISS — a structure that (as I understand it) can’t provide them any of the basic necessities they need for life — can we more or less do the same on the Moon? I understand we need to create the structure and that is obviously a whole thing. But once we have a moon base, will it just be a matter of sending someone there with whatever they need to survive for however long they’ll be there? Or are there different things that need to be done to keep people alive inside a structure on the moon compared to keeping people alive inside a structure in orbit? Is it just “Bring your food and clothes and water. The structure has a way of managing CO2 and O2. See ya when ya get back?”Report

        • Michael Cain in reply to Kazzy says:

          So far, for the next decade (assuming schedules don’t slip — see, I can be funny if I try), NASA plans a habitat in lunar orbit. Like the ISS, only about ten times the cost for each supply mission and each astronaut trip. From time to time astronauts will take a lander down from orbit for a few/several days to do stuff, then return to orbit. There are certain… inconsistencies, shall we say, in the plans.

          Late last year NASA’s IG reported that NASA and Boeing were fudging on the SLS accounting and that the actual price per launch was so large as to be unsustainable. This past week the GAO issued a report that said NASA’s Artemis project was a bunch of pieces with no overall scheme.Report

  4. Measure Twice says:

    Deindustrialization of Europe sure sounds like a big project to me.
    Elections have consequences, and the Artemis issues are just one of them.Report