The Return of the Elk

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Pursuer of happiness. Bon vivant. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Ordinary Times. Relapsed Lawyer, admitted to practice law (under his real name) in California and Oregon. There's a Twitter account at @burtlikko, but not used for posting on the general feed anymore. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.

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4 Responses

  1. Jaybird says:

    A fun essay. The closest thing that Colorado Springs has is General Palmer.

    Question about the rents: is the excess office space (the stuff that they are considering switching to residential) acting at all as downward pressure on prices?

    Like, not even are they going down but are they holding steady?Report

    • Burt Likko in reply to Jaybird says:

      We spoke about this a bit at Leaguefest, but let me recapitulate here for those who weren’t privy to our conversation (meaning everyone else in the world):

      The basic answer is “I don’t know, that goes beyond my knowledge and expertise.” The more complex answer is “Low demand must, obviously, yield downward pressure on prices, but I don’t really know how much that is the case.” In my own case, I sublease from another attorney at a very reasonable rate for what I get and so there are several layers of insulation between me and these market forces at work.

      It’s also useful to note that a lot of the vacant commercial spaces the switch-to-residential proposals are aimed at are not “Class A” office space. There’s issues in “Class A” buildings having vacancies too, but we’re mostly talking about structures that are 80+ years old with street-level retail and not a lot of demand for anything upstairs — especially when there is “Class A” commercial space available at affordable rates.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Burt Likko says:

        I had seen a handful of articles like these that talked about how San Francisco’s office vacancy rate was now in the 20s:

        A million years ago, an acquaintance told the story of having a destination business in a strip mall and the other members of the strip mall fell away due to this or that problem. His lease was up soon and he figured something like “good, I can just renew the whole thing and don’t have to worry about a rent hike” and, of course, the landlord raised his rent.

        “What? Why in the heck are you raising my rent?”
        “I need to make up for the losses in my other units!”

        Anyway, the guy moved out. He said that, last he checked, the strip mall was entirely empty. Just sitting there.

        So, all that to say, when I read about how your city had business units remodeling to become human-friendly, after I stopped thinking about washing machines, showers, and sewage, I wondered if this was resulting in an obvious downward pressure on prices or if the landlords were thinking stuff like “I need to make up for the losses in my other units!”Report

        • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird says:

          Metro Denver continues to surprise/shock me. They keep building new office space at about 2.5 million square feet per year. A third or so of that is bespoke: large corporations decided to do their growth in Denver. The rest is speculative, but is eventually leased.

          As I recall from back in the days of Amazon’s HQ2, one of the knocks analysts put on Denver was that they couldn’t possibly build the half-million square feet per year that Amazon would require. Oops.

          IIRC, there’s more customized warehouse space under construction than office space.Report