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Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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155 Responses

  1. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Nichelle Nichols has passed. George Takei had a lovely eulogy.

    Report

  2. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Idle thoughts on The Crab Bucket:

    Over the weekend, there was a tempest in a teapot in a particularly small corner of the Social Justice part of twitter.

    I’ll try to explain…

    Okay. A few weeks back, one of the crabs in the crab bucket was a YA author who got some pretty good traction by arguing that the argument that authors ought to read other books in the genre in which they’re writers was an ableist argument.

    Seriously this started a *HUGE* fight over the whole question of ableism, genre fiction, you name it.

    Well, it turns out, the crab in question also works at a major military contractor and has worked at this same major military contractor for about 15 years.

    Well, the other crabs in the crab bucket did some quick math and started yelling something to the effect of “HOW DARE YOU LECTURE PEOPLE ON ABLEISM WHILE YOU’VE BEEN WORKING AT (major military contractor) SINCE THE BUSH ERA” and the fight seemed to switch to the whole issue of the problems of being really good at the crab bucket while, at the same time, working for (major military contractor).

    Avery Edison condenses one side of the argument:

    Now let me be clear: I don’t think that there’s anything wrong with working for a major military contractor. I don’t think that there’s anything particularly wrong with working for a major military contractor and using twitter to lecture others about the importance this or that intersectional thing.

    But we are now on Day Three of the drama, the original writer has deleted his account, and the others in the crab bucket, having defeated one of the former crabs at the top layer of the bucket, have started taking turns arguing over the whole situation. The original person who pointed out that the person who outed the YA author was from an alt-right troll site and arguing over whether it’s worse to use the information from the alt-right troll site to crab bucket or whether it’s worse to crab bucket while working for a major military contractor.

    And through it all, there’s this weird undercurrent about how the whole object level doesn’t seem to exist.

    It’s all about the relationship of the crabs to the other crabs in the bucket.

    =====

    At the height of the pandemic, there was a tik tok kid who also did twitch streaming who also did witchcraft who learned that there was a problem with Native American women going missing. So she did what tik tok kids who also do twitch streaming who also do witchcraft do: She announced that there was going to be a special twitch show where she would cast protection spells on the behalf of Native American women.

    This did not go over particularly well. The magick-skeptical people had responses of something to the effect of “good job, making this all about you” and even the magick-sympathetic had criticisms of doing this sort of thing. So the crab bucket did what the crab bucket does and dug through post history and found that the kid claimed “co-consciousness” with a handful of European deities and this went through all kinds of crab bucketing where the kid was educated that “co-consciousness” was an appropriative term and she should use the term “channeling” instead to “does the fact that she’s channeling European deities indicate white supremacy undertones?” to “I doubt that (goddess) really gets *THAT* excited over riding shotgun with an American drinking iced coffee with a flavor shot from Starbucks when she has access to the coffee made in her own native soil by people who actually know how to make espresso”.

    After a brief period where she went through the “why are you attacking me, an ally?” phase, she apologized and just went back to being a tik tok kid who also does (less) twitch streaming who also does witchcraft (with less channeling).

    There was a lot of it not being about the object level there as well. It’s all about the meta of the workings of the bucket.

    =====

    It feels like the more it becomes obvious that it’s about the bucket, the less clout there is to be had.Report

    • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Hoo boy. The YA author was one of the people who helped dogpile Isabel Fall.

      Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Jaybird
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        says:

        Oh, and I should post something from the other side of the argument as well:

        Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      I had no idea that this was a twitter of the day scandal since you placed it here. I think you vastly overestimate how much the general population knows or cares about twitter’s person of the day.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Saul Degraw
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        says:

        It’s sort of the reverse of how we political folk just assume that everyone is as outraged about Joe Manchin as we are, when almost no one even knows his name.

        Which is why I really don’t mind when celebrities use their fame to publicize a political cause- a lot of people probably learn about Dobbs only because a famous actress tweets about it.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Chip Daniels
          Ignored
          says:

          I would say the big difference is that people should know Joe Manchin’s name and how the Senate works and various other issues. This is knowledge on current affairs and how our government/democracy works (or fails). This story involves the twitter equivalent of a blowhard in a bar.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Saul Degraw
            Ignored
            says:

            Agreed.
            I’m betting that it is that way with most world events though.
            Most people are unaware of the approaching danger until the day after it is too late.Report

            • Love and Peas in reply to Chip Daniels
              Ignored
              says:

              This is a deliberate policy to allow the “well-connected” to live, and for you to die. It is why people who think that they understand current affairs through “watching the news” are in general, armchair bloviators at best — and parrots at worst.

              If you can’t explain why “Build Back Better” was an anglosphere phenomenon, you’ve kinda missed the boat on world affairs.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw
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        says:

        My thoughts were primarily dealing with The Crab Bucket and using the scandal du jour as the crystalizing part of it.

        I’m sure that the general population neither knows nor cares about this particular corner of the twitters.

        But The Crab Bucket? They’re learning.Report

        • North in reply to Jaybird
          Ignored
          says:

          And the Crab Bucket is left wing twitter? I gotta agree with Saul. Fish what happens on Twitter- it’s a dumpster fire and everyone except the twitts knows it. Heck, even the twitts know it, they just don’t wanna get off the tiger and get eaten.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to North
            Ignored
            says:

            No, The Crab Bucket is not left wing twitter. The Venn Diagram’s circle of The Crab Bucket covers only a very small corner of left wing twitter.

            As for left wing twitter’s relationship to “the real world”, the only real overlap with “the real world” appears to be the YA fiction market and occasionally some overlap with the military-industrial complex.Report

          • Saul Degraw in reply to North
            Ignored
            says:

            One of the things that the right wing excels at is nutpicking the platonic ideal of a strident, puritanical leftie on twitter/internet and making it seem like said random person has a direct line to Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer. This is real EAIAC territory considering we just found out that the GOP nominee governor for PA paid a consulting fee to the anti-Semitic GAB CEO.

            I think a big problem is because a lot of journalism/media and political types are very online and it is easy to find examples of the strident twitter rando and somehow connect to blue cities exploring composting and denser housing. Or to the fact that your employer asks you to put gender pronouns in your e-mail handleReport

            • Jaybird in reply to Saul Degraw
              Ignored
              says:

              Saul, I’m a 3rd Party Voter. My criticisms of Biden, Harris, Pelosi, and Schumer will sound a lot more like a platonic ideal of a strident/puritanical nutjob than a real Democrat such as yourself.

              “RESCHEDULE MARIJUANA!!! JUST RESCHEDULE IT!!!!”

              See? I sound like a crazy person.

              As for the journalism/media and political types lying down with strident, puritanical lefties and waking up with questions about ties to the MIC? Well, that’s between them, isn’t it?

              Let me just say this: What I think the guy got wrong was the whole crab bucket game, not the whole job thing.Report

          • Saul Degraw in reply to North
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            says:

            There is also apparently an issue of transrights and disability rights involved because Mardoll was apparently heavily involved in the sinking of the Men as a transphobic novel. The defenders see this as pretext for revenge.Report

      • Slade the Leveller in reply to Saul Degraw
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        says:

        If nothing else, you learned the internet’s philosophical jargon du jour.Report

      • DensityDuck in reply to Saul Degraw
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        says:

        “I had no idea that this was a twitter of the day scandal since you placed it here”

        If only there were some kind of quick news-links roundup where the website writers could collect minor stuff the writers consider interesting but not worthy of a whole post.

        I’m thinking a real short thing, something that doesn’t take more than ten seconds to read through and have a short think about.Report

    • Kazzy in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      I literally could not follow this but best I can tell is that some liberals were fighting with other liberals on Twitter?

      Okay…

      Ya know what would be kinda sorta good? If some conservatives were willing to fight with conservatives about a thing or two.Report

    • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      It’s worth pointing out that the “working” this person did for a Major Military Contractor was in, like, the area of reviewing and approving service contracts for inventory-management software. This is not someone personally writing computer programs to optimize the seam lines on a fragmentation shell so that it kills orphan children with maximal efficiency.

      “Well yeah but they still worked for ELLEM and had Opinions” brother if that’s where you’re going then you better never have ever had any association whatsoever with anyone who ever did anything bad, because you’re building a world where it matters that five years ago you Liked a tweet by a guy who was later found to be taking pictures of women at Pride marches without asking them first.Report

      • Jaybird in reply to DensityDuck
        Ignored
        says:

        I believe the argument, as I understand it… here, I’ll let Shanley say it. People who believe it will be able to communicate the sentiment better than I could paraphrase it:

        Report

        • Chris in reply to Jaybird
          Ignored
          says:

          While I did not participate in the online hubbub, and had never heard of the person at the center of it (and think doxing is universally bad), I don’t think it’s going too far to say that Lockheed-Martin is one of the largest, and in many ways worst, parts of the Military-Industrial complex, and that working for them, unless you have no other options, is bad because they are such bad actors. It’s not just that they build the planes that we use to bomb other countries; it’s that they are a big part of the machine that pushes us to continually be bombing other countries. This is the sort of thing that libertarians, certain types of conservatives, certain types of liberals, and leftists would mostly have agreed on even a few years ago. That is, these groups may have quibbled about when it’s OK to work for the worst actors in the military-industrial complex, but they’d at least have agreed that a.) the military-industrial complex is bad, and b.) Lockheed-Martin is a major actor in it, and therefore is itself bad.

          The current hubbub, at least what I’ve seen of it, has largely not been among leftists, but between liberals, who in many cases have reacted to this situation along strictly, er, identitarian lines, and leftists, who have basically just said working for Lockheed-Martin is bad, period. There have been side discussions about doxing, but they’ve largely been ignored by the main participants (again, as far as I can tell).

          Is this discourse irrelevant to the world outside of Twitter? However, I think it does reveal a fracture-point between leftists and liberals that exists in offline space as well, and as liberals have become increasingly dependent on a growing and increasingly independent left to win elections at every level, even as the fracture points make liberals, again, online and off, more and more critical of those to their left, these fracture points are not irrelevant to the offline world. In this case, it’s a fracture point between the anti-war left and identitarian progressives, but these fractures intersect with others, many of which also relate to how liberals and leftists view employers, workers, race, gender, disability, war, health care, and power generally, and they will affect elections, not because Twitter is stupid and somehow making people stupid, but because these ideological differences are real, and growing, and liberals are, at best, struggling to navigate them.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to Chris
            Ignored
            says:

            The eternal desire to ask “Why are you attacking me, an ally, instead of attacking the enemy?”

            What makes this particularly good fodder for a dark comedy is that the person at the center of it did a great job of attacking allies in the service of getting them to be “better”.

            “No wonder she found Isabel Fall’s story so personally offensive” was one of the better jokes I saw bandied about.

            Wait, here’s a good one so the author can get the credit for it:

            Report

          • Love and Peas in reply to Chris
            Ignored
            says:

            Ha. So you’d actually be more okay with a YA writer who advocates for biological terrorism, than one who works for Lockheed Martin?

            (Biological terrorism, in this case, is also known as “nonlethal methods of crowd dispersal.” As in “gets fewer people killed.”)Report

          • Saul Degraw in reply to Chris
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            says:

            Do you think if liberals disappeared overnight that there will be a socialist-left majority in this country?Report

            • Chris in reply to Saul Degraw
              Ignored
              says:

              Damn, liberals as the people not left behind in Left Behind is a pretty good metaphor for how liberals see themselves.

              Suffice it to say that leftists don’t distinguish liberals from conservatives to the extent that liberals distinguish themselves from conservatives, so removing one arm of American conservatism is unlikely to turn the whole county into a socialist utopia, no.

              Worth noting, as a relevant aside, that one subject of debate among leftists is over whether conservative, though mostly apolitical workers would be easier to convince than “PMC” liberals, in large part because the Left Behind analogy is way too spot on for the latter. Really glad you gave me that one. I will be using it a lot going forward.Report

          • DensityDuck in reply to Chris
            Ignored
            says:

            “I don’t think it’s going too far to say that Lockheed-Martin is one of the largest, and in many ways worst, parts of the Military-Industrial complex”

            lolwut

            Considering that you don’t even know how many hyphens there are in the company’s name, I doubt that you could even tell me what it actually does without looking it up.Report

            • Chris in reply to DensityDuck
              Ignored
              says:

              I’ve hyphenated and not hyphenated it, but I’m glad you singled on that instead of what I said, mostly because I’m typing quickly, but I’m glad i un-muted you to see this silliness. Thanks.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Chris
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                says:

                (he didn’t know.)Report

              • Philip H in reply to DensityDuck
                Ignored
                says:

                Why does that matter?Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Philip H
                Ignored
                says:

                Did you like the pictures from JWST?

                If you did, then you damn better understand why it matters that people opining on this issue know what Lockheed Martin does.Report

              • Philip H in reply to DensityDuck
                Ignored
                says:

                What does that have to do with the hyphen? Or anything else for that matter?

                Yes, Lockheed Martin does satellites. They do airborne and ground based weapons systems. They do underwater robots. They do rocket motors and rocket motor control systems. They do building control systems. They do a lot of software behind those systems.

                And that’s just from memory based on my interactions with their people over the last decade. Am I now qualified to talk about them? Am I now qualified to opine about the quality or lack thereof of how they treat employees? Or the impacts of the actual things they make?

                Because as pretty as those pictures are, they don’t negate the slaughter done at the hand of LM’s weapons systems. Not by a long shot.Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Philip H
                Ignored
                says:

                “What does that have to do with the hyphen?”

                lol

                “why are you focusing on just a small part of the statement that doesn’t have anything to do with the main point” he said as he focused on a small part of the statement that didn’t have anything to do with the main point

                “[A]s pretty as those pictures are, they don’t negate the slaughter done at the hand of LM’s weapons systems.”

                …so, did you like the pictures from JWST?Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to DensityDuck
                Ignored
                says:

                Also, if you had to get somewhere, would you know where you are now and know how to get there?

                And what’s the weather gonna be like this evening?Report

              • Philip H in reply to DensityDuck
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                says:

                I work for the agency that forecasts the nation’s weather. Again, what’s that got to do with the discussion of LM?Report

              • Chris in reply to Philip H
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                says:

                Imagine thinking a hyphen means something.

                (By the way, my brother is obsessed with the war in Ukraine, and keeps sending me videos of HIMARS in action. I can’t remember, who makes those weapons that have expanded and likely extended the war, and further heightened tensions between the U.S. and Russia?)Report

              • Philip H in reply to Chris
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                says:

                Clearly to talk about their impact in the world you have to both know what they do, and how to spell their name properly. And if you can’t spell it properly, you can’t possibly know what they do . . . .Report

              • InMD in reply to Chris
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                says:

                HIMARs are indeed manufactured by Lockheed Martin.Report

              • Chris in reply to InMD
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                says:

                Yes, sorry, I was being silly.Report

              • InMD in reply to Chris
                Ignored
                says:

                Re-reading I can now see the sarcasm went over my head like a missile breaking the speed of sound.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Chris
            Ignored
            says:

            The question of “Who is a legitimate target of our rage?” is, not surprisingly, an ancient question and has never been given a simple or easy answer.

            And it doesn’t have much of a left/ right dimension to it. All armies or political factions grapple with it and have to eventually make their peace with whatever answer they arrive at.

            I’ve heard people matter of factly explain to me how the rape and murder of four nuns in Central America in the 80s was a good thing actually, since it reduced the ability of the Communist Empire to argle barlge gibber squee.

            During the Balkans War in the 90s I remember reading a story about street fighting in Sarajevo and how a woman was running for her life carrying her toddler.
            A sniper hit her and she went down.
            The toddler got up and was wandering in circles wailing.
            A few seconds passed, until the sniper got a good angle and took out the toddler as well.

            I reflected on that for a good long while. What series of choices and events brought that sniper to the moment, when he was looking through his scope at a toddler and choosing to pull the trigger?
            Was he a madman? Not likely. More likely just a soldier who had been steeped in that bitter tea of rage and revenge, maybe having lost his own loved ones possibly.

            But the point is that all this talk, like that tweet about how it doesn’t matter if you empty trash cans you are still part of the MIC seems…reckless somehow.

            Like its spoken by people who aren’t aware of how smooth and easy the glide path is, from that tweet to looking down the scope at a toddler, or participating in the rape of a nun.
            Who I’m sure, were part of some military industrial complex of an Evil Empire you just know they were.

            I guess what I would suggest is a bit more caution from these sorts of people, and more careful reflection given before accepting these sterile fatwas from armchair commandos.

            And I say this not in spite of, but because of the fact that we are in a very dangerous moment in American history, when that question may take on greater salience and urgency.Report

            • Chris in reply to Chip Daniels
              Ignored
              says:

              If you’re emptying trash cans, no one on Twitter is gonna say shit, most likely. The person in question was not emptying trash cans.

              That said, it’d be good if in the short term, we could get the person emptying trash cans a job with a company whose technology is not currently extending and expanding a war that threatens to spill into a full-blown global, two-front cold war with very real risks of getting hot very quickly, and medium-term, if we could get rid of the contracts that lead the company to produce such technology, and in the long-term, have the workers of said company take control of it and, in solidarity with fellow workers world-wide, ensure that it never again bids for such a contract.Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Chip Daniels
              Ignored
              says:

              Here’s a fun analogy that might help you see how someone to your left might see it (instead of someone to your right):

              Report

              • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird
                Ignored
                says:

                If we want that analogy to be actually similar to the real-world situation, your other friends need to be buying Serial Killer-made soap and Serial Killer-made leather handbags and Serial Killer-made scrimshaw art, and telling themselves that it’s okay to have these things because they aren’t actual meat.

                (“well they’re just presenting an ANALOGY, those aren’t meant to be EXACT” yeah but the tweeter actually goes quite far in presenting the analogy as though it were an actual argument, which means criticisms of accuracy valid)Report

        • DensityDuck in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          are you actually citing fucking Shanley in a statement you intend me to actually take seriouslyReport

  3. Kazzy
    Ignored
    says:

    There’s been lots of talk of arming teachers or teachers arming themselves.

    Important context:
    https://giffords.org/lawcenter/report/every-incident-of-mishandled-guns-in-schools/

    While it touts itself has chronicling “every incident” it actually only has those which were “publicly reported” meaning it probably is missing quite a few that were not made public.Report

    • Love N Peas in reply to Kazzy
      Ignored
      says:

      Naturally, it’s missing all the reported knife incidents in schools.
      While many people may think guns are a Problem, with a capital P, knives in schools are a good deal of the ‘problem’ with bullies and the bullied (two guesses as to who brings the knife to school).

      Knives are cheaper and easier to get than a gun, and feel more intimidating. Which doesn’t stop a gal from stabbity-stabbing the next girl, if she feels legitimately threatened.

      Knife-usage by schoolgirls is “off narrative” for basically everyone (liberals and conservatives) so it’s tops on the list of “things we gotta cover up.”Report

    • DensityDuck in reply to Kazzy
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      says:

      If we’re making up non-reported incidents and declaring them to be occurring in hugely significant numbers, then I can make up any number of incidents where the teacher declared themselves to be armed and that stopped a situation from progressing.Report

      • Kazzy in reply to DensityDuck
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        says:

        Only that’s not what I did. I noted an error in its representation of what it is.Report

        • DensityDuck in reply to Kazzy
          Ignored
          says:

          ahhahaha, no. No, that is not what you did. You said “…it probably is missing quite a few [incidents] that were not made public”, which is a statement that you believe there are a significant number of such incidents.Report

          • Kazzy in reply to DensityDuck
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            says:

            The title is” “Every Incident of Mishandled Guns in Schools.”

            The first sentence reads: “Our comprehensive analysis finds there have been nearly 100 publicly reported incidents of mishandled guns at schools in the last five years.’

            The title refers to the entire set.
            The first sentence refers to a subset.

            So, ahahahaha, yes, I did do what I said I did. I acknowledged what the article was (a partial reporting of incidents) and not what it claimed to be (a complete reporting of incidents) and offered a logical conclusion (some were left out).

            If you want to argue that “quite a few” = “significant”, that’s on you. I never made that claim.Report

            • DensityDuck in reply to Kazzy
              Ignored
              says:

              “If you want to argue that “quite a few” = “significant”, that’s on you. I never made that claim.”

              if you didn’t mean it as “significant number” then…why did you post about it…?Report

  4. Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Anti-abortion activists receive thrashing in Kansas. Kansans reject stripping abortion rights from the state constitution in an overwhelming majority. So far 408,489 or 62.2 percent of the vote is no.Report

  5. Philip H
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    says:

    Apparently Alex Jones – and his attorneys – are not nearly as smart as they think they are:

    The lawyer for the Sandy Hook families, Mark Bankston, provided something very real to the court on Wednesday, however: messages taken from Jones’ phone, the contents of which Bankston says were given to him accidentally by Jones’ lawyer, and which show Jones was lying when he said he didn’t have any communications about Sandy Hook.

    “In discovery you were asked if you had Sandy Hook messages on your phone and you said no, correct?” Bankston added.

    “If I was mistaken, I was mistaken,” a visibly shaken Jones said after pausing. “You’ve got the messages right there.”

    “You know what perjury is, right?” said Bankston.

    The implications of all of Jones’ communications from the past two years finding their way to the hands of the lawyer representing the Sandy Hook families could extend well beyond this week’s trial. Jones is connected to a host of right-wing figures, including politicians, conspiracy theorists, and others involved in the effort to overturn the 2020 election.

    “You know what nobody’s thought about yet?” Bankston said on a hot mic, according to Ben Collins of NBC News. “What happens when that phone goes to law enforcement.”

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/alex-jones-caught-lying-sandy-hook-trial-1392160/Report

    • Chris in reply to Philip H
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      says:

      Jones’ testimony has been absolutely amazing. Dude said he didn’t have an email address. Then they pointed out his email address (because they have the entire content of his cell phone). So he said what he meant is that he doesn’t write emails, so they pointed out emails he’d written. So he said, no, sorry, what I meant was, I don’t write emails; I dictate them.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H
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      says:

      These are not very bright people and things got out of hand. I’m still deciding whether it was an accident or an “accident” that the plaintiff’s attorneys received the cellphone data. In the end, Ken White is correct that the biggest issue is that lots of Americans either pay to want to here what Jones says and are willing to pay for it. The show apparently often makes between 100K-200K an episode and some episodes earn up to 800K. He also seems to have supporters in the vague inchoate category of “anti-establishment” types who are anti-anti Alex Jones which might be more indefensible.

      My idea for a dark reboot of 12 monkeys is a time traveler who goes back to Austin in the 1990s are tries to convince the ironic hipsters of the day not to find amusement in Alex Jones.Report

  6. InMD
    Ignored
    says:

    The NFL will appeal the Deshaun Watson suspension.

    https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2022/08/03/nfl-deshaun-watson-nflpa-appeal-suspension/

    I predict embarrassment no matter the outcome.Report

    • InMD in reply to InMD
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      says:

      (For clarity the appeal is to request a sterner punishment.)Report

      • Kazzy in reply to InMD
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        says:

        Not sure embarrassment for the NFL… which is rare. Unless he sues and discovery reveals stuff.

        The embarrassment is already out there, as Robinson basically said her hands were tied by the NFL’s lenient penalties in the past. Goodel can maybe show he’s not a total buttclown if he can get a harsher penalty to stick. Appealing to himself or his designee is part of the collectively bargained discipline process, so as lame as that seems, the NFLPA agreed to this.

        Then again, it’s dumb to bet against Goodel fucking up.Report

        • CJColucci in reply to Kazzy
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          says:

          Sleazy as Watson’s conduct was, Ben Roethlisberger was credibly accused of borderline (or perhaps actual) rape, and he got six games, later reduced to four when he didn’t rape anyone else in the off-season.Report

          • Kazzy in reply to CJColucci
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            I think that was part of Robinson’s ultimate logic… that previous like incidents got 6 games or fewer. She said something to the effect that a more severe punishment would represent an unexpected departure from precedent.Report

            • InMD in reply to Kazzy
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              says:

              That is also my understanding of her reasoning. What I was trying to get at is I think it’s kind of a no win for the NFL. There’s no objectively correct punishment, especially for something that looks like it’s going to stay out of the criminal realm. So they’ve had the criticism this week then they’ll have it again whenever the new sanction comes down, probably in the middle of the season when everyone had forgotten about it.Report

  7. Philip H
    Ignored
    says:

    GOV. Ron DeSantis of Florida has decided he knows better then Hillsborough County voters who their county prosecutor should be:

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday suspended Tampa’s elected prosecutor, Andrew Warren, for pledging not to use his office to go after people who seek and provide abortions or on doctors that provide gender affirming care to transgender people.

    DeSantis also accused Warren of not pursuing criminals to the fullest extent of his powers as the state attorney of Hillsborough County.
    “To take a position that you have veto powers over the laws of the state is untenable,” DeSantis said at a press conference in Tampa surrounded by law enforcement.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/politics/desantis-suspends-prosecutor/index.htmlReport

  8. Saul Degraw
    Ignored
    says:

    Sandy Hook parents receive 4.1 million verdict from jury in their defamation case against Alex Jones: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/08/04/us/alex-jones-sandy-hookReport

  9. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Report

  10. InMD
    Ignored
    says:

    Sinema appears to be a yes for the Inflation Reduction Act, with concessions of course.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2022/08/04/inflation-reduction-act-sinema/Report

    • North in reply to InMD
      Ignored
      says:

      I am torn. Sure the carried interest loophole surviving is onorous and noxious but my understanding is the alternative pay-for she finagled (a tax on stock buybacks) actually generates more revenue than the loophole policy would have. I can’t, honestly, muster any venom for her today (she should still be primaried out in ’24 though).Report

  11. Philip H
    Ignored
    says:

    Recession my left butt cheek:

    The US economy added 528,000 jobs in July, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, far surpassing economists’ expectations.

    The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, after holding at 3.6% for four straight months.
    Friday’s employment snapshot marks the 19th consecutive month of job growth.

    https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/04/economy/monthly-jobs-report-preview-july/index.htmlReport

    • Chris in reply to Philip H
      Ignored
      says:

      Hard to wrap my head around a labor market that so heavily favors workers, combined with supply chain issues and some level of capital strike that keep supply low, resulting in inflation at a jogging pace, even as the fed keeps doing things that should make the labor market worse for workers. I see economists using language like “paradigm failure” and similarly dramatic phrases. Weird, wild times.

      If Austin, where housing prices almost doubled in 2 years (and rent doubled in 1!), is any indication, the fed has managed to slow the housing market, but it feels like that’s only gonna last as long as the Fed has their foot firmly on the break. As soon as they let up, it’ll take off again.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Chris
        Ignored
        says:

        I see economists using language like “paradigm failure” and similarly dramatic phrases. Weird, wild times.

        The good economists will acknowledge that they are trying to make rational sense of irrational actors.

        That aside, all the fundamentals are strong despite slight slips in GDP. That tells me that GDP is probably not doing us any good measuring our national economic status.Report

        • InMD in reply to Philip H
          Ignored
          says:

          There is such a thing as a short, shallow recession. Obviously politicians can’t say this but such a thing may well be the right policy outcome, or at least the best we can do with imperfect tools; that being enough of a slowdown to curb inflation without a prolonged downturn, and hopefully a quick return to sustainable growth. We don’t need to try to redefine terms over something so easily articulated.Report

          • Jaybird in reply to InMD
            Ignored
            says:

            That’s…

            (he took a second searching for a word)

            That’s sexist.Report

          • Philip H in reply to InMD
            Ignored
            says:

            I think we do need to redefine terms in as much as slight declines in GDP for two quarters – your short shallow recession – aren’t being backed up by the fundamentals. Which to me says that defining “growth” through the lens of GDP is no longer adequate to describe what we are witnessing.Report

          • North in reply to InMD
            Ignored
            says:

            I hope you’re right. Sinema has signed onto Manchins bill so it looks like a bit more deflationary pressure is on the way along with an extension of ACA subsidies and some decent work on climate change. This has been an astonishingly productive congress.Report

            • Michael Cain in reply to North
              Ignored
              says:

              The biggest surprise for me was that Manchin pretty much dropped his demands to prop up all fossil fuels and settled for natural gas. Interesting data point: a couple of years ago, the dollar value of NG produced in West Virginia passed the dollar value of coal produced in WV. Manchin got guarantees for a pipeline that should ensure WV will sell large amounts of gas for (probably) many years to come.Report

              • North in reply to Michael Cain
                Ignored
                says:

                It surprised me too. I just reinforces for me that Manchin is understandable and preferable to any alternative from his state. I can’t say I’m a Manchin fan but I can’t muster any real dislike for him.
                Normally I’d take a gratuitous swipe at Sinema at this point but she appears to have signed on to the bill and not done any serious harm (maybe even slightly improved it?) so I’m giving her a pass today. She still should be primaried out in 2024 though.Report

            • InMD in reply to North
              Ignored
              says:

              I would like to see them do the IRA and the allegedly agreed upon changes to the electoral count act. If that happens I would consider them to have knocked it out of the park based on how slim the majority is.

              To your comment above re: Sinema I am with you, but also don’t have it in me to be angry about it today.Report

              • North in reply to InMD
                Ignored
                says:

                Agreed entirely. If they can horse whisper an electoral count reform bill through then it’ll be a triumph of a legislative session regardless of how the election turns out.Report

          • Chris in reply to InMD
            Ignored
            says:

            A recession with hundreds of thousands of new jobs each month, an unemployment rate so low that economists would call it full employment, and record profits for capital, is well and truly shallow, to the point of being nonexistent.

            I don’t know that this will be short, though. The supply chain doesn’t look like it’s going to be un-fished anytime soon, and even record measures by the Fed haven’t managed to turn the job market from extremely pro-worker to even slightly more pro-employer, with unemployment actually dropping, and wages still high. Unless something else big (a miracle in U.S.-Russia relations? I dunno) happens to slow inflation, we have to assume the Fed is gonna get even more aggressive, right? Something’s gotta give somewhere, and I don’t know why it would give quickly, or what reasons there are to believe the recovery would be quick either. Feels more like we’re running along a cliff than that we’ve taken a quick, shallow dip.Report

            • InMD in reply to Chris
              Ignored
              says:

              I would assume we will see more rate hikes. I also agree that we are at a weird, probably unprecedented moment in modern times.Report

            • North in reply to Chris
              Ignored
              says:

              It’s super weird, agreed.Report

            • Jaybird in reply to Chris
              Ignored
              says:

              The boomers have finally started retiring (or other).

              They’ve been the foundation of the economy for so freakin’ long, people have forgotten what it means when a large chunk of the workforce isn’t there when it’s needed.

              The closest I’d compare it to is the mid-90’s when they needed IT workers but didn’t even have names for half the stuff they needed.Report

    • Pinky in reply to Philip H
      Ignored
      says:

      As noted time and time again, economic data about one period doesn’t change economic data in another. The economy could be increasing 50% this quarter and it wouldn’t affect whether there was a recession in the first two quarters of the year. Your resistance to the term “recession” isn’t based on principle.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Pinky
        Ignored
        says:

        As I said after the second straight quarter of slight negative GDP was announced, I agree by the definition of recession we may have had one. I just think the definition needs a serious analysis because everything else says we didn’t.Report

        • Pinky in reply to Philip H
          Ignored
          says:

          I guess I missed the subtle analysis in “Recession my left butt cheek”. I didn’t miss that you cited recent data while apparently questioning a prior recession though.Report

        • Pinky in reply to Philip H
          Ignored
          says:

          Oh, and when you say that everything but real GDP declining for two quarters says there wasn’t a recession, I don’t think you’re recognizing how broad a measure of the economy real GDP is. It’s not like it excludes wages, or manufacturing, or basically anything else economic.Report

          • Philip H in reply to Pinky
            Ignored
            says:

            Wages remain up. Hiring remains up. Industrial production has gone flat but isn’t really declining. retail isn’t declining – though its not growing either. Crude Oil Prices and gas prices have fallen for 6 or so weeks. Most of the important factors that should drive GDP seem to be going in positive directions while GDP had two quarters of slight (i.e. under 2%) decline. So something is off in that reckoning. We would be well served to find out what, and fix the analysis.Report

            • Pinky in reply to Philip H
              Ignored
              says:

              July employment numbers – not part of 2nd quarter
              last six weeks or so of oil prices – mostly not part of 2nd quarterReport

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky
                Ignored
                says:

                We’ve had 19 straight months of job growth. which is very much part of both those quarters.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H
                Ignored
                says:

                If you don’t want to admit that there was probably a recession, fine, don’t. At least admit that you’re arguing that there wasn’t a recession.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky
                Ignored
                says:

                Three times, in two threads now, I have said that according to the NBER definition we may be or have been in a mild recession. Don’t know how to make that clearer.

                What I’m arguing however is that determining a recession based on GDP downturns – when so many of the underlying fundamentals are increasing or stable – may no longer be a good, solid, data driven way to make the determination.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Philip H
                Ignored
                says:

                You made it clear when you said “Recession my left butt cheek”. Unless you were describing a physiological problem.Report

              • Philip H in reply to Pinky
                Ignored
                says:

                let’s try it this way: I believe the NBER’s decision criteria – under which we appear to be in a mild recession – are wrong and no longer account for how our economy actually functions based on the status and trends of the underlying fundamentals.Report

            • Brandon Berg in reply to Philip H
              Ignored
              says:

              It’s important to note here that the 2% reduction in Q1 was an annualized rate, and that real GDP in Q2 2022 was 99.4% of real GDP in Q4 2021. That is, the actual decline has been only 0.6%.

              I think the Democrats in general and to a lesser extent Biden personally have been awful on economic policy, and that the country owes a great debt to Manchin and Sinema for keeping their worst instincts in check, so the Democrats certainly don’t deserve credit for good stewardship of the economy, but I agree that we’re not in a recession in any meaningful sense of the term.Report

          • Philip H in reply to Pinky
            Ignored
            says:

            Consider this: we had two quarters – 6 months – of GDP decline in the middle of 19 months of job growth. those two things alone don’t usually co occur . . .Report

            • North in reply to Philip H
              Ignored
              says:

              It’s still a recession. Maybe next quarter we’ll see growth again and the recession will be a very brief shallow one. I don’t see why that’d necessitate a reappraisal of the definition of the word recession.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to North
                Ignored
                says:

                Seems like a binary understanding — yes/no on recession — may not be the most useful analysis of the economy. Not all recessions are created equal.Report

              • North in reply to Kazzy
                Ignored
                says:

                I never said they were- but to start grumbling about the term “recession” and argue it should be redefined or reconsidered when the recession in question may present a problem for our side of the political spectrum is unhealthy thinking. That’s the kind of stuff the right went careening off down and we don’t want to end up like them.Report

              • Kazzy in reply to North
                Ignored
                says:

                Sorry… this wasn’t meant to be a direct response to you as much as a general contribution to the thread.

                If this is what we typically call a recession, we should call it a recession.

                And if we don’t typically panic at the mere mention of a recession because not all recessions are equal and other things matter, then we shouldn’t panic and should look at those other things.Report

              • Pinky in reply to Kazzy
                Ignored
                says:

                He just stated that all recessions aren’t equal when he speculated that the possible last/current one could be short and shallow. I haven’t heard anyone say that recessions are equal, although I’ve seen Philip push back at the mere possibility that someone could think that. When liberals start attacking a word it’s never out of a desire for clarity.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to Philip H
      Ignored
      says:

      That’s the seasonally-adjusted first cut at the number, which is basically a statistical guess with wide error bars. Ask me what the job gains were when we get the non-adjusted third estimate in a few months.Report

  12. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Well, you have to understand…

    Report

  13. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    It still has to get past the House again (and I want to say that if the House changes it then the Senate has to vote on it again and it’ll be like ping-pong and so that tells me that it’s unlikely that the House will change it) but then it looks like Biden will sign it.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird
      Ignored
      says:

      Reconciliation bill, so if the House changes it the bill goes to a conference committee, and if something comes out of that both chambers vote on it w/o further amendment. House is currently in recess, will apparently return this coming Friday to vote.Report

  14. Chip Daniels
    Ignored
    says:

    “Look, I don’t want any wounded guys in the parade,” Trump said. “This doesn’t look good for me.” He explained with distaste that at the Bastille Day parade there had been several formations of injured veterans, including wheelchair-bound soldiers who had lost limbs in battle.
    Kelly could not believe what he was hearing. “Those are the heroes,” he told Trump. “In our society, there’s only one group of people who are more heroic than they are—and they are buried over in Arlington.” Kelly did not mention that his own son Robert, a lieutenant killed in action in Afghanistan, was among the dead interred there.
    “I don’t want them,” Trump repeated. “It doesn’t look good for me.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/08/trump-book-hitler-milley-kelly/

    Hillary was wrong. Not half, but 100% of the people who vote for this man are objectively deplorable people.Report

  15. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    Report

  16. Jaybird
    Ignored
    says:

    I gotta say: The ability to remember last time kinda sucks.

    Report

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