War and the Speed of History

A bus burns as Russia invades Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, on a road from Kharkiv to Kyiv. Photo by Yan Boechat/VOA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Contrary to the predictions of some optimists, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine last week. Russian tanks rolled over the border, moving far past the initial separatist regions where they had shown the most interest early on. The intent is now clear: Russia wants to overthrow the western-leaning Ukrainian government and replace it with one more pliable to Russian interests. So far, the Ukrainian people have not acquiesced in that desire. Ukraine has put forth fierce resistance. According to Jonah Shepp on Monday, “the Russians have not established air superiority, taken control of any major population centers, or successfully demoralized the Ukrainians, even as the invasion has displaced millions and sent hundreds of thousands of refugees pouring over Ukraine’s western borders.”

War in Europe and Ukraine is a tragedy first and foremost. Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have already died along with Ukrainian civilians. It is impossible to know what the result of the war will be and what effect it will have on global politics. The potential questions are endless. Will Sweden and Finland join NATO? Will Putin threaten nuclear warfare? Will Poland be next? Predictions of the war’s impact have run the gambit from limited to wildly irresponsible. In situations such as these, it can be helpful to look at what has already happened and use the lens of history to provide context as to what the next steps may look like.

One unavoidable consequence of war is its ability to change the course of history in the blink of an eye. Wars introduce new social processes and vastly speed up those that had been previously operating. The United States is, of course, no stranger to this concept. Decades of abolitionist goals and Northern agitation were accomplished through the Civil War in four short years, fewer if one considers the successful Confederate performance up through 1862. The slow creak of autocratic empires in Europe, which had been declining for over a century, fell over four years during the First World War.

Smaller wars have decided the course of world history as well. Just one country, Russia, has been at the center of many of these. The war between Russia and Poland in the 1920s checked Soviet spread and ensured that central Europe would stay outside of the USSR. Russia’s 1956 invasion of Hungary put an end to the hope that the Soviet Union would fall following the 1953 death of Stalin. Afghanistan sped up the fall of the Soviet Union and was arguably the most important factor in that collapse.

Outside of social movements, war has put engineering, health, and weapons-related technologies on a fast track. The needs of the First World War led to revolutions in transportation technology and the manufacturing of weapons. The American Civil War helped bring together advances in nursing and anesthesia that would save millions of lives. In many ways, the information-based world we live in today was shaped by transistor-related advancements during the Second World War. War is the most effective historical force, bringing potentially significant developments along with its obvious horrors.

The war between Russia and Ukraine has the potential to mimic the impact of these earlier wars. Europe is at a crossroads after several years of decline due to populist movements and debate over the EU. The war with Russia may finally push the rest of the continent towards energy independence. It may also strengthen Europe’s resolve and unity, giving it a new position in the fight against autocracy throughout the world. NATO may gain new members after years of skeptics wondering if the organization had any purpose in the 21st century. In the United States, the war has the potential to end a years-long affinity between Russia and the American conservative movement.

These predictions are not based on terrifying fears about what Russia may do. They are rooted in events that have already happened. The Nord Stream II pipeline has already been frozen. Donald Trump has already started to criticize Vladimir Putin. The Europeans are already starting to act in a more harmonized manner. It is possible to see a way forward that is hopeful and breaks the countries of Europe and the West out of their previous complacency, and one that fits earlier historical patterns.

The West will be pushed to intervene in this conflict. They will have to sit on their hands and watch as Ukraine either ekes out a victory or collapses in defeat against the Russian onslaught. Then, they have to prepare for what will come next. More than likely, the experience of war will supercharge trends and movements that had already been operating at a glacial pace. Whatever the outcome, it is certain that the Ukrainian conflict will change Europe for the 21st century and perhaps beyond.