More Backroom Weaving Of The Legislative Web

In the seemingly never ending saga that is the “Build Back Better” legislative agenda, the only thing for sure is nothing is for sure.

From Punchbowl News:

The fate of President Joe Biden’s agenda has always hinged on several Democratic power centers on Capitol Hill: House progressives; House moderates; and Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.).

But in the last 12 or so hours, we’ve seen each of these groups shift strategy and exercise power in important ways.

→ Manchin’s news conference on Monday made clear that he has no problem with killing the reconciliation bill if Democratic congressional leaders and the White House don’t move the proposal in his direction. He made abundantly clear that he hasn’t approved of Biden’s framework and there’s a lot of work to be done, including a deep dive into the long-term fiscal and economic impact of the legislation. He called the Democrats’ budgetary offsets “shell games.” And Manchin made clear he’s sick of progressives holding the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill hostage in hopes he’ll commit to voting for the Build Back Better Act. In fact, Manchin said it’s counterproductive.

→ After weeks of saying that they wouldn’t vote for the bipartisan infrastructure bill until they get ironclad assurances that Manchin and Sinema will back the Build Back Better Act, leading House progressives now say they’re ready to vote for both this week. Speaker Nancy Pelosi told her leadership team that the Rules Committee could meet Wednesday on this legislation, signaling a possible floor vote by the end of the week on BBB and the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

→ Moderates are now expressing serious concerns that could threaten progress on the reconciliation package. They’re privately griping about immigration provisions that may be added to the $1-trillion plus proposal. Some want an official Congressional Budget Office score before voting for the measure. This came to a head last night during a meeting of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition.

All these moves reflect changing political realities facing Democrats as they march into November and the reconciliation endgame. Manchin continues to try to drag the reconciliation package toward the center somewhat, but there’s still a sense in his orbit that he’s being made to swallow policies that he opposes, such as Medicare expansion. So Manchin is establishing that the debate will go at his pace — or not at all.

Progressives, who had been holding the line successfully for weeks, have softened their opposition, in part because they don’t want to be blamed for the continued delay in advancing President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda, especially following last week’s debacle over the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Here’s Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, with a brand new tone:

“I just have to believe what the president says and the president said right after [Manchin] spoke that he is confident he can deliver 51 votes for this plan. I am going to trust the president. Our members are going to trust the president and we are going to do the job that we need to do which is pass both bills through the House and whatever Sen. Manchin says is, you know, up to him.”

Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), another leading progressive, said it’s time to move forward — even without assurances from Manchin:

“We have an informed sense of confidence [Manchin will support the bill]. … Is it as ironclad as I’d like? No. Am I taking a step if not a leap of faith? Yes. Could I end up in the witness protection program politically? Absolutely. But at the same time, Joe Manchin is never going to say everything we want exactly the way we want it. It’s just not going to happen.”

But we have bad news for Democrats — moderate Blue Dogs aren’t down with your plans right now.

Several sources tell us that the group of middle-of-the-road Democrats is ready to block consideration of the BBB unless leadership gets a CBO score. We’re told at least five Democrats — Reps. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), Jared Golden (Maine), Kurt Schrader (Ore.), Jim Costa (Calif.) and Ed Case (Hawaii) — could block action on the BBB without an analysis of the revenue and spending impacts. This echoes Manchin’s position.

There’s lots of complicating factors here. Democrats could cobble together budgetary analysis from CBO, the Joint Committee on Taxation and unofficial scoring from the White House. That could sway some moderates, but we’ll see.

There’s also a chance that Democratic leadership would move to “deem” the bipartisan infrastructure bill passed as part of the rule on floor debate for reconciliation. This would make the rule vote very high stakes — but it would also avoid multiple votes. It would be a recognition that Republicans are unlikely to provide the votes needed to pass the infrastructure bill. All of this is up in the air.

At this point, one thing is certain: moderates are going to have a chance to flex their muscles now. We’ll see if they take the opportunity.

We caught up with Pelosi Monday evening. Here’s a snippet from that conversation.

Jake: “Do you have any reaction to Joe Manchin’s comments today?”

Pelosi: “We’re on course. We’re on our course to pass our bill. And there was nothing new in what he had to say. Did you think?”

Jake: “I did, yes.”

Pelosi: “What did you think was new?”

Jake: “I think he said he’s fine with voting for it and he’s fine with not voting for it. That seemed new to me.”

Pelosi: “Well, we’re not finished but everything he talked about — our bill’s paid for, it reduces the debt, also, all the economists who view it say that the way it is paid for will not contribute to inflation. We don’t take inflation lightly, but this bill does not contribute to it.”

So, yes, Democratic leaders want a vote this week. We’ll see if they can get one. It’ll take a lot of finessing. The bill isn’t done yet — there’s still negotiating going on! But Pelosi is scheduled to go to Glasgow next week for a global climate-change conference, and she’s going to want this all wrapped up beforehand. Again, color us skeptical.