Post-Pandemic Wasteland

John McCumber

John McCumber is a cybersecurity executive, retired US Air Force officer, and former Cryptologic Fellow of the National Security Agency. In addition to his professional activities, John is a former Professorial Lecturer in Information Security at The George Washington University in Washington, DC and is currently a technical editor and columnist for Security Technology Executive magazine. John is the author of the textbook Assessing and Managing Security Risk in IT Systems: a Structured Methodology

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52 Responses

  1. fillyjonk says:

    Two anecdotal things for me:

    – Going back out to the local Lowe’s, the only real large home-supplies concern in town: their selection has become incredibly restricted. Not just down to one brand of things in some cases, down to one variety of one brand. And there are still shortages of odd things in the grocery store and other places.

    – Taking a train trip to visit my mom for the first time in 15 months, meals are now “flex meals” – basically Lean Cuisine brought to your compartment (and I understand it’s even rougher for coach passengers). Supposedly some runs are getting full meal service back but apparently not the one I routinely take.

    A number of small businesses in my region have closed, I think a few restaurants have realized they can do carry-out only with less staff and so they’re sticking with that as long as they possibly can.

    I said, back mid-pandemic, that “when it’s finally really safe, I am going somewhere, somewhere with either nice hiking or nice shopping, and I am staying in a Fancy Hotel that has room service, and enjoy my Fancy Hotel and get room service in my room every night for dinner” but now that….may not happen? Like, ever?

    I guess the “back” means “back to the usual grind,” not “back with the nice things that were in the before-times.” Then again, given how people in my region have acted during all this,, I sincerely doubt I will be eating a meal INSIDE a restaurant any time soon or going to a movie in a theater any time soon.Report

  2. Oscar Gordon says:

    We spent a night in a hotel last weekend and one thing we noticed is after cleaning, the room had a tape seal on it. Easy enough to break, but a visual reminder that things are a bit different.Report

  3. DensityDuck says:

    “Dance, poor people! Dance, for my amusement! Dance! DANCE! Wait, you have unemployment benefits now? Well…darn.”

    I guess we’re gonna end up with Robot McDonald’s after all, but not in the way that the Fight-For-Fifteen naysayers imagined…

    That said, they sure ain’t cutting back prices as a reflection of “service” not being the same.Report

  4. Saul Degraw says:

    1. Spain had a lockdown, Australia had a lockdown. There was nothing in the U.S., even in California that resembled a lockdown. At no time was I forced to stay within X miles of my San Francisco home. I could venture anywhere i wanted in the city, state, country, etc. There were states that asked out of state residents to quarantine upon entry but this was done on an honor system with no enforcement mechanism. In Singapore, the government marched people coming into a country to a hotel room for two weeks, delivered food to the door, and tested for COVID before letting people leave. My partner had to do this when she went home last December to visit family. It is tiresome to hear Americans whine about our “lockdown” when it was nothing of the sort.

    2. A lot of the issues here are because businesses decided to lay off lots of people and now have to scale back up and people realized that working for unfriendly/abusive management at low wages/low benefits sucks and there is something to giving yourself dignity rather than groveling to a bullying boss.

    3. I will say that it is unclear how much work from home will be a thing but it will be a conflict. Upper management and the C-suite seems to really want people back in the office ASAP. I can’t tell how much of this is because upper management does not trust people to work from home and/or it worries about the costs of long term commercial leases. A lot of workers do seem to like working from home and seem to be willing to change jobs to keep that.* If hybrid or work from home becomes more of a thing, it will hurt the small businesses that thrived on serving coffee, breakfast, and lunch to the office crowd.

    *I am more of a hybrid guy myself fwiw. I think most people really hated the commuting and the trafficReport

    • LeeEsq in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      3. I also think that a lot of businesses see their being prestige in being big fancy offices to meet with clients, work out deals, and schmooze. Law firms, high finance, and consulting are going to be the ones that really place a lot of emphasis on having the big fancy corporate headquarters and branch offices over other businesses. I also think that many lawyers aren’t going to want their clients to know where they live.Report

      • Oscar Gordon in reply to LeeEsq says:

        So let them, I suspect that will still be a minority of the previously occupied office space.Report

      • Philip H in reply to LeeEsq says:

        SO my contrarian side says – what did the firms do for the 16 or so months? How much of that time were alternate, not place based, methods used an how successful were those methods? I suspect there are more virtual prestige opportunities there then one might expect, and firms that take them may actually get a leg up.Report

    • Oscar Gordon in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      King county has started buying up old hotels to convert to homeless shelters. I say local governments should make that a practice to create more affordable housing, and include vacant office space as well.Report

      • Chip Daniels in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

        I’m actually starting a new job in a few weeks for a construction firm doing just that, converting old motels to either homeless shelter or transitional housing, then the state of California purchases them.

        One thing I have noticed is indoor farms/ cannabis grow operations being done in previously vacant industrial buildings in downtown Los Angeles. The buildings are cheap and LED lights are efficient enough to do indoor farming.

        What I find so interesting about it is that both office and retail markets are withering, with massive vacancy rates. Indoor farming can be a way to efficiently brings fresh produce directly to the city.Report

        • InMD in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          Indoor farming can be a way to efficiently brings fresh produce directly to the city.

          If it proves viable that would be a very cool concept.Report

          • Oscar Gordon in reply to InMD says:

            I’ve done Tech Tuesdays about indoor farming operations in the past. It works great for certain cops (leafy greens, strawberries, etc.), but is a lot more challenging for stuff like grains, or orchard produce (nuts, tree fruit, etc.), or crawling plants (squash, melons).

            The real benefit, besides the shorter logistics chain, is the ability to better control for pests, weeds, and disease.Report

          • North in reply to InMD says:

            I have deep doubts about viability, as cool as it would be. Also, to be blunt, downtown LA would be much better off converting that space to housing units than pretty much any other use.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Chip Daniels says:

          I don’t think we can fully write off the death of the office yet or even the death of the downtown (or midtown) business core. Upper management might win more often than they also. For anecdata, I have seen more traffic coming into SF on weekday mornings and my own suburbanish office tower seems to have more people coming back in.Report

          • Chip Daniels in reply to Saul Degraw says:

            True, they won’t disappear but retail especially is undergoing a slow contraction that won’t reverse or even slow down anytime soon.

            Vacancy rates are rising even as rents soften and landlord give-backs increase, and there doesn’t appear to be any inflection point on the horizon.

            The thing about urban core real estate is that the ground floor of a building isn’t suited for residential or office use; Stoop units work but only in select areas and most office tenants want second floor or higher and in a soft market they will get their wish.

            So there are thousands of buildings with empty ground floors, looking for some way to fill it.

            In Chipotopia, these spaces would be filled with small indoor farms and independent craft maker spaces. But so far the proletarian cadres are resisting this great leap forward.Report

            • Philip H in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              I think you could also make a lot of those highrises into actual housing for employed people. Theres plumbing to tie off of, elevators and stairs to move people, security systems for suites, etc. Can’t be more expensive then shoving the urban residential core out (again). And having people living in those buildings would necessitate groceries, eating places, and farming . . . .Report

              • Chip Daniels in reply to Philip H says:

                A firm I was at actually did a study of converting a high rise office into residential.
                It’s possible, but (depending on the building) expensive. But still cheaper than having a massive investment sit empty, so, maybe?Report

            • Saul Degraw in reply to Chip Daniels says:

              The death of retail is more complicated I think. This weekend, I went shopping for bathroom fixtures. That is not something I would want to do online.Report

  5. InMD says:

    I mostly concur with Saul’s comment above. One of the things that the pandemic has laid bare is just how unessential a lot of the trappings of office/corporate life really were. Deep down I think most people kind of knew it. They were just afraid to draw the line or convinced themselves that there actually were intangibles with tough to measure but nonetheless real benefits. Now we know there aren’t.

    My sincere hope is that we can take what we’ve learned and reshuffle accordingly. Undoubtedly this will be hard on those businesses and lifestyles that relied on the old way and we need to soften the impact on people where we can. Some things will of course return but I see no reason to look back on a lot of this stuff as more than shed skin.Report

    • Marchmaine in reply to InMD says:

      A few years ago… actually maybe 5-7 I was in Raleigh, NC at a large multi-national and they had just that year switched to ‘zone’ office space.

      Basically no-one (well, no one below a certain level) had an office, a desk, or even a seat. Everyone was assigned a Zone with their team (and maybe relevant other teams, maybe) with the expectation that they took their laptop with them every night. Based on an analysis they had done (someone somewhere) they didn’t have to have a space for everyone on the team because some % of workers aren’t at the office each day.

      So, the idea was to have an ‘Office’ where a % less than 100% would show up each day and find a new place to work. The folks we were meeting with said it mostly worked… but there was a massive shortage of meeting spaces where you could talk in private because people were booking those spaces for hours on end.

      They explained this as we were heading outside for our meeting because there was no where to meet.

      I expect this will be iterated upon heavily in the coming months/years. You won’t have to come in every day… and when you do you won’t have a place to go specifically just an area you head to like you’re working remote from your real office at home. The only question to me is whether that will be on a weird 2-on-2-off schedule or some sort of algorithmic 3-2-3 pattern that staggers all the team members.Report

      • InMD in reply to Marchmaine says:

        I think those kinds of situations are going need to be managed as opposed to left in a state of benign neglect. I’ve heard horror stories from a college friend whose company is based in France and does the European ‘open office’ concept. It’s total nightmare fuel.

        My company suffered from the meeting space issues pre-pandemic. About 35% of the company was completely remote but the expectation for HQ and the satellite offices was that if you were in proximity and not on a sales team you were there, with a large dose of discretion for family emergencies, plumber is coming, etc.

        That said, some group was always in town or there was always a recurring hold set by big wigs that could make it damn impossible to find conference space. Luckily as an attorney I had been granted a corner office with some room, even if it was on the floor where the ceiling tiles turn black and collapse whenever it rains.

        When all is said and done I’ll be happy to share an office with my boss and/or the attorneys on my staff on some kind of staggered basis. These are problems I think (hope?) we should be happy to solve.Report

      • Oscar Gordon in reply to Marchmaine says:

        Corporate just sent out a proposal (for feedback from the workforce) on the idea of us all going hybrid, and the existing office space being hot desks and small, but private meeting rooms (we currently have 3 meeting rooms, this would be expanded considerably), with the expectation that if you booked a private meeting room, you were having a meeting (either in person or a conference call, no booking the room so you can have a private fishbowl office).Report

        • Philip H in reply to Oscar Gordon says:

          My agency had already begun spending millions of dollars on this very sort of redo in our suburban Maryland HQ spaces. The drivers was a desire to consolidate two other operating center into the existing HQ area, and hotdesk many of us. Given how functional we have been the last year I question the need for that, but the contract is well underway, so we will see how it goes.Report

  6. Marchmaine says:

    I haven’t returned to my super-sexy-traveling-sales-rep lifestyle yet… but the couple of trips my Wife and I have taken post-Vax sequester have been fine. Not so much travel wasteland as more like European Travel… a lot fewer people lying to me that it was ‘their pleasure’ to give me a warm bottled water… but baseline accommodations with indifferent service. I kinda prefer it.Report

  7. fillyjonk says:

    I dunno. I do not want to WFH (I am a college professor). As I said elsewhere, part of it is it’s harder for me to teach effectively in that setting (no real whiteboard, I am using a small corner of my living room in my small house). Part of it is the feeling of “my workplace has now invaded my home, so I am working 24/7 now.”

    Even being on campus, but with the students remote, isn’t that good – when I can’t see people’s faces and I can only sort-of hear them speaking to me through their phones, communication is stilted and bad.

    I get that some people love WFH but I assume either they had toxic colleagues and/or they have a really large house where they can devote an entire room to being a workspace – I can’t do that, so instead I have to give over part of my already-too-small-house to being a workstation of sorts. If I had to do this forever I’d either quit, or have a climate-controlled and electrified outbuilding built to use as a home office, just to get the psychological work/home separation back.

    But there are education pundits talking about how we should “virtualize” almost all learning and I am really not here for that.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to fillyjonk says:

      WFH clearly does not work for all things.Report

      • fillyjonk in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        I also wonder if places going fully WFH are going to do some kind of cost-sharing plan, doling out some of what they save in rent and electricity and things like T1 lines, stuff that may have been offloaded onto the person working from home – at any rate, people WFH are going to probably see their electrical bills go up a little.

        I would want my workplace to pay me some kind of ‘rent” either in money or reduced duties if I had to turn over a corner of my living room to be a “home office” forever. I know one can THEORETICALLY write off an office space on one’s taxes but my dad tried it a couple years when he was doing geological consulting (mostly work on water wells) and he got audited every time and at least once the deduction was denied.Report

        • Jaybird in reply to fillyjonk says:

          I think they’ll do the whole “we’ll call it even” thing.

          It’s a safer play than getting the accountants involved. (I mean, if my corporation called me in and wanted to discuss remuneration in this new and improved WFH economy, I wouldn’t go into the conversation thinking that I’d walk out with more money.)Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to fillyjonk says:

          My partner’s company gave everyone a budget to buy whatever office equipment they wanted. Other companies will probably want to do shuffle all the costs off on the employee.Report

          • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

            We were allowed to go into our offices in June-ish and “check out” office equipment including monitors, docking stations, desk chairs and standing desk add-ons. Not sure that went at HQ, but in the field many folks already had that stuff at home.Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to fillyjonk says:

      At my final technical gig, part of my job was being an informal internal consultant. Sometimes it was because I knew more about the technical subjects; sometimes it was because I knew more about the history of the company. There were few days when someone didn’t stop by my cubicle to ask a question. Sometimes the discussion took an hour because it was a good question.

      Even though I’m not in the business any more — I once did research in the field of real-time multi-media multi-person communication over the internet — I still sometimes think about what the software system would have to do in order to make that kind of interaction work well at a distance.Report

      • Susara Blommetjie in reply to Michael Cain says:

        Amen brother. *This.* I hear so much utopianism about remote working, and then I wonder how these sort of informal discussions are supposed to take place.

        I think we are going to loose a good deal – a great deal – with remote working.Report

        • Oscar Gordon in reply to Susara Blommetjie says:

          The challenge is informal discussions. I work remote & I still have those all the time.

          The challenge will be building the relationships that lead to informal discussions.Report

          • Do you have a good equivalent to a whiteboard? I always seemed to wind up with a whiteboard full of small handwriting, graphs, etc. If you add a third person, can you easily push it to them?Report

            • Oscar Gordon in reply to Michael Cain says:

              We make doReport

            • fillyjonk in reply to Michael Cain says:

              And the internal-to-Zoom “virtual whiteboard” is hot garbage. I had to use it during the enforced teach-from-home time for one of my classes and people complained they could not read my writing because the white board is so small.

              If I had to teach from home for an extended time, as I said, the first choice would be a separate shed where I could put up a white board, second choice would be to get a big one on a stand and just…..sacrifice more or my living room 🙁

              and that’s not even getting into the issue of “how the hell do you teach a field organism-identification lab virtually?”Report

              • Michael Cain in reply to fillyjonk says:

                Unless automatic white levels on cameras have gotten a whole lot better, having a separate whiteboard includes the problem that if the whiteboard is properly illuminated the person is just a silhouette, and if the person is properly illuminated the whiteboard is entirely washed out.

                I’ve been thinking about getting one of these. Wacom doesn’t do drivers for Linux (where I prefer to experiment) but there’s an open source group that does.Report

              • JS in reply to Michael Cain says:

                My wife got by with two iPads and a Macbook.

                She would toss what Zoom was sharing from iPad A (her face), iPad B (drawing/whiteboarding/highlighting notes) and MacBook (same thing as B, but for stuff that was closer to slideshows or she needed to type not draw).

                It wasn’t as good as a blackboard, but she had been using an iPad paired with a projector to basically quickly scan something, put it on the projector, then marking it up while lecturing. Anything from analyzing a piece of poetry suggested by a student to marking a student’s assignment (sans name) as examples of how she graded or how to edit their own work.

                Even though her classroom and she were incredibly tech savvy, the six months of remote teaching were the most stressful in her 18 year career. And this in a year where, bluntly, if you just logged on you’d pass.Report

    • JS in reply to fillyjonk says:

      WFH is frankly not for teaching.

      While there is a subset of students who can learn well from videos and example problems, that is a…small subset. (Frankly, it’s why 200 person lectures ALSO suck at conveying information).

      One teacher, no more than 30 or so adults. You need to be able to read facial expressions and body language, and assess students on the fly. Which you can’t do from a tiny Zoom window.

      Even for college students, you really need to be there physically to teach it well. Even with some of the nifty tools used to sort of approximate a teacher’s physical presence (for instance quick one question quizzes that every student pops an answer to, used to both verify attention and determine understanding) isn’t as good as doing that and being able to determine who is clearly making the face of “I don’t get this, but I’m afraid to say something”. Or worse yet, giving the “I totally get this, I can tune out” face even though you haven’t gotten to the important bit.

      Teaching is very, very, VERY social. WFH is effectively like remote happy hours. It’s just not gonna work the same as actually being in the room.Report

  8. Damon says:

    I spent the last year and a half WFH. The priority was always to have the production guys and the engineers in the building. The engineers will be the first to go back as they are needed on the floor very often to help build the products. Every one else doesn’t need to be in the office. There ARE some reasons to be in the office, access to folks is easier and standing in a doorway gets attention email, and skype doesn’t, but the offset is people BSing in the cafeteria for 30 minutes and not working, so maybe it’s a push.

    The technology has existed, at least for my job, to WFH for a decade. No employer has really wanted to do that. Now, apparently, my employer is “looking into” a mixed week of x days in the office each week and the rest WFH. We’ll seeReport

  9. North says:

    Supply chains are fished up. Hotels are parts of supply chains just as much as container boxes full of geegaws are. No one alive today has witnessed an event like what we went through with Covid. Arguably no one ever has witnessed an event like Covid (last grand pandemics we were too poor to do a shut down like this).

    Personally my office has switched to 100% remote and the experience has been impressive. Higher production, better quality, enormously higher worker satisfaction and fewer sick days. Leadership up and down our chain is swearing they won’t go back (not least because my immediate boss and his boss both previously had to commute 2 hours in and out and now don’t).

    Covid is like a forest fire. A lot of old things that existed simply because they existed are gone. Only what actually is needed will likely come back. That means some of the office space, but not all. Some of the services, but not all. I can’t begin to guess if it’ll be good or bad.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

      but what will the boss of your bosses’ boss say? The statistics I read were that 83 percent of CEOs want everyone back in the office and less than half the country got to work from home. Blue cities in blue states might have been a predominant share of those who worked from home.

      I think it is premature to declare a new world order unless the call back to the office produces a general strike.Report

      • Philip H in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        A lot of that less then half statistic is likely in professions that are not from from home amenable. Amazon warehouses, Target stores, restaurants, construction firms come to mind. As Damon notes above parts of manufacturing could, parts couldn’t.

        And as to the general strike – I keep seeing left leaning commentators make the point people not going back to work in low end, high stress jobs is in effect a general strike without the organizing.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to Philip H says:

          That is a bit of an optimisitc read with wish-thinking additions. I think around August/September, work from home is going to end suddenly and hard.Report

          • JS in reply to Saul Degraw says:

            There’s a big argument among my company’s management about it.

            Bluntly put, about 25% of our workforce NEEDS to be in office — they need access to labs and workshops and complex equipment to do their job. That’s been fine, because as long as they were careful scheduling they could keep the buildings no more than 10% full — everyone wore masks except when alone, no more than one person in an elevator, everyone was fine.

            Another 25% need to come in regularly for meetings (with coworkers, with clients, integration work, etc) that work much better face to face — mostly 10+ people who need to talk and work.

            The other 50%….don’t really. I mean they might need to have quick conversations with 2 or 3 other people, which is difficult without setting up a teleconference, but most get by solely with one-on-one calls and working alone.

            And that’s a lot of floor space you don’t need. To boot, per my management, most of the workforce has been more productive rather than less.

            So discussions right now are what to do from WFH. Some favor a hybrid model, although that doesn’t make a lot of sense for a LOT of jobs (we’d have to either horse workstations to and from home a few days a week or IT would have to really up their game on how they configure and store data), some favor liberal WFH policies (ie: work where you want, come in for meetings), some favor getting everyone back together….

            I don’t know where it’ll fall. My immediate manager thinks it’ll be liberal WFH, with low bars for qualification depending on your job.Report

      • North in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        Once you go that far up my company’s food chain the great grand bosses are looking at numbers, not details. Call it an advantage of being in a big company. For my own group the numbers are dispositive: more production, better quality, lower turnover, lower office costs. So I’m very doubtful that the boat is going to be rocked. Also I am blue city in a blue state so I have that going for me as well.

        I wouldn’t dream of suggesting my own corporate drone symbol manipulation group is representative of the industry as a whole- merely exulting at how pleasant my own life has gotten from this disaster and how all indications are that the good times will continue to roll.Report