Election Day Jour Cinq, Pour Certaines Raisons: Biden Finally Wins and More

Andrew Donaldson

Andrew Donaldson

Born and raised in West Virginia, Andrew has since lived and traveled around the world several times over. Though frequently writing about politics out of a sense of duty and love of country, most of the time he would prefer discussions on history, culture, occasionally nerding on aviation, and his amateur foodie tendencies. He can usually be found misspelling/misusing words on Twitter @four4thefire and his writing website Yonder and Home.

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  1. Avatar Michael Cain
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    says:

    ED3: At least as far as Congressional redistricting, some of the trifecta states don’t matter: seven states (five Republican) have only one district; ten states (five Republican) have independent redistricting commissions; Iowa and Utah have odd hybrid systems.Report

  2. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    At this point, I am perplexed as to why the media and the states are not calling the election. Are they still afraid of the Twitter wrath of Donald and the QANON types?*

    Nevada’s remaining votes are overwhelmingly in Clark County which is going to increase Biden’s lead. Arizona has tightened but not in the numbers necessary to get Trump ahead. He originally needed 58 percent of the batches going to him and now he needs 65 percent or so of the votes and it just hasn’t gone that way. Biden’s lead is probably bigger in AZ because he scored an overwhelming majority of the Navajo Nation votes. The lead in Georgia is narrow but a recount is unlikely to change it and the last additions are more likely than not to ad to Biden’s lead. The same is true in PA.

    So what gives with the media refusing to call it? Ratings? Fear of Trump? Fear of Qsigns going nuts?

    *QANON has not posted since Tuesday allegedly.Report

  3. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    Though I don’t know why the media would be afraid of Trump’s twitter wrath at this point? They are cutting away from his speeches, Anderson Cooper now famously compared him to an obese turtle stuck on his back. A good chunk of GOP leadership is backing away from Trump’s claims of voter fraud quite hard (and are basically ready to stab Trump in the back).Report

  4. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    From now on we should call it Caroline de Nord!Report

  5. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    Vox argues that the election is not being called for professional cover your ass reasons. Probably also applies to the media: https://www.vox.com/2020/11/6/21553115/pennsylvania-call-biden-kornacki-provisionalsReport

  6. Avatar Saul Degraw
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    says:

    And it is called! Champers or really good Whiskey tonight? Or both?Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Saul Degraw
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      says:

      More coconut rum. President Elect Bisen. Now George can pop on and explain how Trump has Biden right where he wants him.Report

      • Avatar Stillwater in reply to North
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        says:

        Trumpism cannot fail…Report

        • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Stillwater
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          says:

          Trump wasn’t very good at Trumpism, though. Maybe the next guy will be. Forget Trump. He was a flawed vessel.Report

          • Avatar Saul Degraw in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            I really doubt this. Trump has the appeal of a carnival barker. Cotton doesn’t. Hawley doesn’t. Who else was a “big” “successful” “real-estate mogul” “billionaire” Reality TV star?Report

          • Avatar greginak in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            Trump was great at trumpism. Incoherent, bloviateing, semi competent at best and all about his ego. Nobody is going to replicate that. The R’s are not done with the ur thrust of what trump started but it’s going to be different.Report

          • Avatar InMD in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            I think it all depends on the sophistication of the Trumpists. If they fall for another TV personality they’ll be disappointed. This is where the conservative media environment is its own sort of hot house, building up people and ideas too frail to last long in the real world.

            On the other hand if they coalesce behind someone with a better sense of how to sort allies from enemies it just may come roaring back far stronger than it ever was under Trump.Report

          • Avatar Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            I gotta go with Saul and greginak here. Trump was spectacular at revival-style rallies and the non-stop Twitter feed. On policy he delivered tax cuts, regulatory rollback, and a more conservative federal judiciary. About the only thing he didn’t get was doing away with the ACA, but the SCOTUS is hearing Texas v. California this week (and the appeals court ruled the entire program unconstitutional).

            What’s your definition of Trumpism that he’s bad at?Report

            • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Michael Cain
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              says:

              It was an oblique joke to socialism.

              “Socialism has never been tried.”
              “What about East Germany?”
              “That wasn’t real Socialism.”

              Trump? Oh, that wasn’t real Trumpism.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to Michael Cain
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              says:

              The parts that were supposed to be different from bog standard plutocrat fellatio republitarianism? The infrastructure, immigration control, anti-globalization, restore middle class wages, protect safety nets stuff that is the reason he got elected in ’16 in the first place? If the right’s voters had wanted someone who’d blow up the deficits giving tax cuts to the rich while cutting regulations and the safety net they’d have voted for any of the other options. The only difference between Trump and a standard republican, policy wise, was the trade wars and the (laudable but in my opinion only 50% intentional) failure to enmesh the country in any new wars.Report

  7. Avatar greginak
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    says:

    We got lots of narrative that is already formed and everybody will believe. The R’s did well in some ways so they are celebrating that. What is coming is the back biting, recriminations and in fighting as they jostle for power and either edge away from trump while sucking up to his followers. Who the hell knows what is going to happen. Partly it will depend on how much trump shits on everybody and everything as he stomps off until Jan. A lot of his sleaziest mouthpieces (rudy, newt) are going to be desperate to stay important and know that when trump moves on there will be much less reason for anybody to put them on tv and trump would just as soon shank them as shake hands.Report

    • Avatar InMD in reply to greginak
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      says:

      I’m betting on collective amnesia.Report

      • Avatar greginak in reply to InMD
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        says:

        I completely believe many R’s were horrified at trump being all trumpy. Of course they were to cowardly and craven to say it in public. They have a few months starting in Jan to do something. A few of them will granted it will be get themselves more power.Report

        • Avatar InMD in reply to greginak
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          says:

          I don’t think they were horrified by him per se and they were clearly happy enough to use him where they could (judges, printing money
          for the have-mosts via budget busting tax cut). What offended the establishment was the terrible discipline, the inability to stay on message, the lack of commitment to the red brand, as opposed to the Trump brand. Maybe the smarter ones understand him and his path to power as a threat to their own but I think that’s a bit different.Report

    • Avatar Stillwater in reply to greginak
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      says:

      Another narrative that won’t get a lot of traction: after four years of Trump the Dems won the Presidency, but didn’t take the Senate, lost seats in the House, lost the Montana Governors race… Four years of Trump yielded no blue wave, no Biden coattails. Expect the House to flip Red in 2022 and GOP to pick up more Sen seats. Dems are in trouble.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Stillwater
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        says:

        Have you seen the “are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?” polls?

        Gallup said that 56% of people said “yes”. (I’d be one of them, for the record.)
        2012 had 45% say “yes”
        2004 had 47% say “yes”
        1992 had 38(!)% say “yes”
        1984 had 44% say “yes”

        Here’s the question to contemplate:

        “Are you better off now than you were 2 years ago?”

        And that’s what happens with the house.Report

        • Avatar Stillwater in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          The tricky thing for Dems going forward isn’t that conservatives hate the party, it’s that lots (and lots) of Dem voters don’t like the party. Biden realizes this, I think. (Harris does not.) Pelosi and Schumer (and DiFi and Nadler and…) need to be stripped of their leadership positions, the seniority system thrown in the trash can. Let the generational churn begin already.Report

        • Avatar greginak in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          I’ve seen people note that they should have paid more attention to that stat leading up to the election. It indicated trump was in a stronger position then the polls let on. That number suggested a closer election and positive trump environment. Which is true.

          The PV isn’t actually all that close but nobody cares about that because of ….reasons.

          That gallup has been testing the same question for decades is useful. It’s an odd question for these time. Am i better off? Well seeing 200+ people die in a pandemic is a downer but i’m making more money so i’d say no, i’m much worse off because my country is shitty shape. But thats just me.Report

        • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          The trouble with the “are you better off” metric is that even people who were objectively NOT better off, and people who WERE better off, still voted the same way they did in 2016.

          I don’t think the 2022 midterms are going to be fought on the terrain of pocketbook issues and conventional politics.Report

      • Avatar greginak in reply to Stillwater
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        says:

        The D’s under performed down ballot. New younger leadership would be good but i dont’ think we are getting that yet unfortunately. In trouble? To soon to say. Gotta lot of work to do: very much so. They need to make some serious changes in leadership.

        The senate map is good for the D’s as i remember. We don’t know how much health care will become in issue soon and if it does that may continue to be burning issue through 22.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to greginak
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          says:

          Yeah depends on if the conservatives on the Supreme Court, with Cocaine Mitch protecting their backs, decide to flush their judicial credibility down the toilet and strike down the ACA or not. Personally my money is on them not doing so but ya never know.Report

          • Avatar InMD in reply to North
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            says:

            I get the sense that Roberts has a very strong understanding of just how threatened the institution is right now. Obviously he can be out voted on any holding but my guess is that there are a lot of behind the scenes discussions going on about the importance of discretion for the sake of the court’s standing long term.Report

            • Avatar North in reply to InMD
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              says:

              Yeah I think that line of argument has a lot of cachet with Gorsuch and maybe even Kavanaugh. Barrett: who the fish knows but I suspect she’s gonna be circumspect on non-religion related issues.
              And let us not forget how astronomically idiotic the ACA challenge we’re talking about is.Report

              • Avatar InMD in reply to North
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                says:

                My hope, and maybe it’s a naive one, is that one of the other R appointees has taken her aside and explained how sensitive this moment is. Even if team D pulls a bare majority out of the GA runoffs I have to think that expanding the court is off the table for now. I assume Roberts thinks it’s imperative that it dies down as an issue and will want to avoid decisions that bring it back.

                McConnell of course has no honor whatsoever but I don’t think he’s a fool. He’s really gotten away with one here but the victory relies on the court staying at 9 justices. If I’m the GOP I take the truly generational win in the judiciary and pick something new for my scorched earth strategy against the Biden administration.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to InMD
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                says:

                I don’t think we’re going to see scorched earth against *BIDEN*, per se.

                We’re going to see some pro forma opposition but, for the most part, this is part of the game and Biden knows how to play and everybody’s happy, like it’s 1999.Report

          • Avatar Michael Cain in reply to North
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            says:

            I expect them to overturn the Appeals Court on narrow technical grounds. Either plaintiffs lack standing (no harm) or severability.Report

        • Avatar Stillwater in reply to greginak
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          says:

          Dems heading into 22 and 24: hope *is* a strategy.Report

          • Avatar greginak in reply to Stillwater
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            says:

            Trump lost. That is imho a good thing. 22 might be bad for the D’s. Mid terms are usually hard on the party that has the prez. I’m not quite gonna start worrying about how bad 22 is going to be. Maybe i’ll be depressed about on T Giving Day just to get an early start. Lord knows we need to start the next election cycle at Now O’Clock. Oh covid is still hear and killing a thousand people a day

            How could i forget, we gotta start planning the War on Christmas!!!!! Woot.Report

            • Avatar Stillwater in reply to greginak
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              says:

              ” 22 might be bad for the D’s. ”

              So that would mean that 6 of the last 7 elections will have been bad for Dems (10, 12, 14, 16, not 18, 20 (except for Biden), and 22).

              Nothing to see here?Report

              • Avatar greginak in reply to Stillwater
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                says:

                Still, being mired in every fishing thing is always terrible is not healthy. I’m certainly not saying the D’s are great or that they wouldn’t benefit from big changes that will come eventually. Sooner would be better. D’s have been stronger at the prez level with O’s two wins so the midterms have been bad along with a failure of D’s to mobilize for down ballot elections. The D’s seem to have learned to focus more about down ballot elections. Doesn’t mean they will always win but they are paying attention to it.

                Trump losing is a far better thing then him winning, that is for damn sure. We are far better off today, even with D under performance and a potential bad 22. Heck Harris might lose in 24 then we have to focus on having a strong 26, what is the senate map like for 26? Then we gotta find a candidate for 28. Will it be Mayor Pete’s turn? Will Taylor Swift, The Rock, Chelsea Clinton be the new heir?

                We got something good enjoy it and hope for better. We won’t get all the good stuff and D’s failing would not be a surprise. But just having a Biden admin with a D house will be a massive improvement. There is always, always time to be depressed. Really there is infinite time to be down. There is never enough time to enjoy a win or something good.Report

              • Avatar Stillwater in reply to greginak
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                says:

                ” Heck Harris might lose in 24 ”

                If the Dems are smart (??) they’ll have an open primary in ’24 and not – absolutely DO NOT – anoint Harris as the nominee.Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels in reply to Stillwater
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                says:

                And nominate…?Report

              • Avatar Stillwater in reply to Chip Daniels
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                says:

                whoever has the most delegatesReport

              • Avatar greginak in reply to Stillwater
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                says:

                But then who is leading the polls for 28 and what does the 30 mid term look like????Report

              • Avatar Mike Schilling in reply to greginak
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                says:

                There will be no better time for a progressive comeback than the 100th anniversary of the New Deal.Report

  8. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    From Jacobin:

    Report

  9. Avatar Oscar Gordon
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    says:

    As a Libertarian, I am very happy our party stole votes from Trump.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Oscar Gordon
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      says:

      Libertarians got robbed. As the AP reported the totals, Pennsylvania saw about 40,000 Jo Jorgensen votes moved from her total to Biden’s total.

      At 12:03 the count was

      2,158,770 Trump
      1,571,693 Biden
      89,025 Jorgensen.

      At 12:15 the count was

      2,286,966 Trump,
      1,674,122 Biden,
      46,987 Jorgensen

      But heck, she wasn’t using those votes anyway, and that’s why we and the Russians have election hacking software.Report

  10. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    The official cabinet speculation has begun!

    Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      State: Susan Rice. Her meeting notes tie Obama directly to ordering the FBI to illegally spy on the Trump campaign. So she’s got the dirt on Obama and Biden, so they can’t refuse her the job. And she is good at unashamedly and repeatedly lying to the American people, which I guess will be a primary requirement for a Biden Administration.

      AG: Doug Jones. He just lost his Senate race by 20 points. Failing upward, I see.

      HHS: Don’t let her grass-roots sounding name fool you. She’s from a very prominent and powerful political family that goes back to the 1800’s, and which includes three US representatives, two governors, and a Secretary of the Interior. Ben Lujan is current Chairman of the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee.

      Transport: Eric Garcetti, mayor of LA. Most people thought Biden would drop this crazy LA mayor over all the allegations of gay sexual misconduct that he ignored, but compared to what’s on Hunter Biden’s laptop and Pornhub account, that’s nothing. He’s also taken heat for corruption, misdirecting fire units to protect the homes of politically connected people, having meetings with the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, and closing all the city’s Covid testing sites because black people burned LAPD cruisers. If you want America to look like a homeless camp full of drug addicts, Garcetti is the man.

      Commerce: Meg Whitman. Are their two Meg Whitman’s, or is this the Republican billionaire who was Mitt Romney’s finance chair, co-chair of John McCain’s campaign, and finance co-chair of NJ govenror Chris Christie’s campaign, who also ran as a Republican trying to unseat California governor Jerry Brown? Well, Biden will sell out to anybody, but I’ll bet Trump outbids her for the cabinet post.

      Ernest Moniz: That one actually makes since. He’s already had the position, and was confirmed 97-0.

      Interior: Tom Udall. He’s from one of the most powerful political families in the US. If Biden keeps appointing people from these ruling aristocratic families, why don’t we just go back to a monarchy?

      Agriculture: Heidi Heitkamp, age 65. Her only public sector job was with synfuels, not farming or growing crops or anything. But her mom was a school cook and her dad was a janitor, so there’s that. Maybe she offsets the aristocrats.

      VA: Buttigieg. He can’t even manage to run South Bend Indiana, and knows nothing about medicine. But he is gay, so there’s that. I’m sure that’s just what wounded and aging veterans were hoping for.Report

    • Avatar Mike Schilling in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Should Meg Whitman abandon her post as CEO of Quibi?Report

  1. February 17, 2021

    […] to the January 6th events at the Capitol, which had the effect of delaying congress from making President Biden’s victory official. The suit alleges that the defendants intended to prevent congress from performing its duties that […]Report

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