Election 2020 Chapter 4: The White Heat Of The Summer Campaign

Luis A. Mendez

He/Him, Husband, Pet Owner, Proud Floridian, Tampa Bay Sports Fan, Author, Cinephile, Gold Derby Film Awards Voter, Psephologist, Bourbon Guy

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18 Responses

  1. North says:

    Good analysis but you left out Arizona in your Senate list.
    I keep struggling with this election. Events and indicators keep trying to haul me out of my state of cautious optimism to something approaching confidence but I’m fighting it as hard as I can because the last time I felt confident the whole thing went pear shaped in 2016.
    But God(ess?) dammit, Trump is fighting to survive in Florida, Arizona and Texas??? TEXAS!??! Optimism beckons waving a bouquet of Yellow Roses but I am not biting. I hope Biden keeps a close watch on the mid-west states and doesn’t get cocky.
    A lot can happen in a few months. But still Texas?Report

    • Michael Cain in reply to North says:

      RealClearPolitics’ moving average has Kelly(D) +11.6 in Arizona for the US Senate seat. Granted, on June 29, 2018 RealClearPolitics had Sinema +8.2 and she eventually won by a much narrower margin than that. The deciding factor in how well Dems do overall in AZ may be marijuana legalization: supporters of the legalization ballot initiative submitted over 300,000 signatures to the Sec of State’s office. They need just under 240,000 valid signatures to be on the ballot. Nothing like a legalization initiative to get out the young voters.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

      It turns out that Trumpian tricks do not work when the Democrats run an old white guy. Who knew? Plus despite what the overly compensated cable news pundits (and their internet wannabes) say, Trump was never popular. His popularity never went even close to being 50 percent or over. The current clusterfuck is largely because of his incompetence and stupidity.Report

      • LeeEsq in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        I think Trumpian tricks might work on Sanders. He is an old white guy if you consider Jews to be white. I can see Trump getting under Sanders skin.Report

      • Brent F in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        Biden has a quality that helps much better than being old and white. He’s a known quantity who people had on the balance, positive feelings for.

        Its a lot harder to come up with a new smear of someone who is already well defined in the voters minds than it is to define somebody new and relatively unknown.

        On the whole, Biden was unusually well qualified for this particular moment.Report

      • North in reply to Saul Degraw says:

        Who knew? The cynical African American leadership in the Democratic Party and the middle aged African American voters in South Carolina. Hopefully Biden continues listening to them and not the young Woke brigade who’ve done their volte-face and are now pretending that the woke delivered that demographic to Biden and that they speak for them.Report

        • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

          I clearly need to use sarcasm tagsReport

        • LeeEsq in reply to North says:

          North, repeat after me. African-Americans supported Joe Biden because African-Americans like Joe Biden and think he will make the best President out of the rest of the field. He always had a productive and fruitful relationship with the African-American community since his start in Delaware politics. They aren’t supporting him for cynical reasons.Report

          • North in reply to LeeEsq says:

            Oh I think they have that attitude too! But they also have voiced very cynical reasons- particularly with regards to how they think white voters will react to the choices they make and, so far, their cynical analysis seems to be pretty correct. I hold the AA base of the Democratic Party in considerable esteem- in my own political lifetime they have played an integral role in Obama and Biden’s nominations and in both cases proved considerably more savvy than my own expectations.Report

    • Saul Degraw in reply to North says:

      My comment was eaten. Arizona has been shifting blue slowly but surely for many years. Florida is more of a purple state with a narrow R advantage (DeSantis barely won his race in 2018). Texas has also been shifting blue but not as quickly as other areas.

      But you know what? Despite the best wishes of overcompensated cable news pundits, Trump was never going to become Presidential and lead all Americans in the ways that only too well paid pundits can dream. He is a vulgar, reactionary, vastly stupid person whose popularity never creaked north of 50 percent. A global pandemic, following economic collapse, bungled but partisan response, etc has revealed all his stupidity and vulgarity for the world to see.*

      At this point his supporters consist of hardcore social conservatives who only care about appointing reactionaries to the federal bench, white males without college degrees filled with resentments, and upper-class corporate types who only care about tax cuts and deregulation (and their wannabe lackeys whose entire identities is about being in business).

      *Except the tens of millions of people who knew this since 2016 or before.Report

  2. Jaybird says:

    My main read on #3 is that we’re not on the other side of the protests, yet.

    Right now, we’re still in the “okay, we’ll remove an episode of the Golden Girls if you stop protesting” phase. I don’t see that as inspiring people to stop protesting.

    We’ll see if we get to “okay, we’ll defund the police” *OR* if we get to “Jeez Louise, my choice is between Trumpler and his nazis or Staldin and his antifa.”Report

  1. June 29, 2020

    […] friend Luis Mendez breaks down the numbers, history, and election modeling of what is going on with President Trump for us — and the news at the moment for the […]Report