Nate Silver lays down his odds for New Hampshire



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16 Responses

  1. Avatar Marchmaine

    Projected out after NH:

    Autocratic Billionaire from NYC with “MeToo” issues wins the Democratic Nomination.

    Did. Not. See. That. Coming.Report

  2. Avatar LTL FTC

    May your inner child always be present enough to giggle at “Dixville Notch.”Report

  3. Avatar Jaybird

    This is one of those things where I look at the numbers and I don’t know if these are good numbers or bad numbers or what.


  4. Avatar George Turner

    The votes are being counted. Klobuchar is in the lead with eight votes. Sanders and Warren are tied with four, Yang has three, and Buttigeig and Biden are tied with two votes each. That’s a very disappointing showing for Buttigieg, who may have spent too much time focused on Iowa.Report

  5. Avatar Brent F

    Klobuchar was a great on paper candidate and now she has her opening.Report

  6. Avatar Jaybird

    Holy crap, I’m wrong about a lot of things.

    Yang dropped out, for one. I was sure he’d be in until Super Tuesday. Not because I thought he had a chance of winning any delegates, but because I thought that he’d think that he’d have a chance of changing the debate.

    I thought that Klobuchar, if she was going to have a chance, would manifest that chance in Iowa, neighbor to Minnesota. She manifested it in New Hampshire?

    I had Biden, mentally, at 2nd (optimistic as heck) or 3rd (pessimistic as heck) today. He *CRATERED*. He’s Jeb! (Wait, we should see what happens with South Carolina!)

    I had Warren at better than 4th because, like Klobuchar, I figured that if she’d show up, she’d show up in a neighbor state if she showed up at all.

    What’s going on?!?Report

    • Avatar Aaron David in reply to Jaybird

      Special K isn’t a kid, she isn’t a socialist, she isn’t senile, and most of all, she isn’t a serial liar.

      We shall see if this holds.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Jaybird

      I’ve been saying since the beginning that Biden was a horrible campaigner, based on his past laughable runs for President. He has yet to win a single caucus or primary, anywhere.

      In 1984 he managed to pick up one delegate (Mondale had over 2000) and came in seventh, behind John Glenn. In 1988 he improved, getting two delegates and coming in forth behind Richard Stallings, who got three delegates. In 2008, Biden came in seventh, behind Dennis Kucinich and “uncommitted.”

      Now, he didn’t campaign much in Iowa or New Hampshire, figuring New Hampshire would likely go to Bernie. But his name was on the ballot, so early on people kind of expected him to come in second, third at the worst, since he was obviously the top name, Obama’s VP, the heir apparent, the man whose time had come. Well, that cratered, though he did manage to beat Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer.

      So this really shakes up the dynamic. In the debates up to now, Biden was considered the front-runner and was largely treated with deference. Many assumed they were watching a debate over who would get to be Biden’s VP pick. Well no longer. It’s pretty obvious that Biden is, as always, a third-tier also-ran, of no consequence to anyone. His black support in the South has apparently dropped in half, and this shellacking will likely make that drop much larger, because although people will bet on a long shot, few support an obvious disappointing loser.

      The question I have is how much of Biden’s collapse was due to Nancy’s impeachment gambit, which kept Biden’s Ukraine dealings in the back (or front) of everyone’s mind for the past few months. Why vote for Biden if he’s inevitably going to get destroyed by Trump over all this Hunter Biden stuff? Why vote for Biden when he’s still a walking gaffe machine who will blow the election?

      With that in mind, some of the others may seem like long shots, but at least they’re shots.

      Meanwhile, Trump looks set to smash the New Hampshire record for an incumbent President, getting about two and a half times as many votes as Obama did in 2012, and probably more than Bernie and Buttigieg put together.Report

  7. Avatar Saul Degraw

    Warren had a very poor night sadly but I take some solace in the fact that Bill Clinton did not win a primary until March in 1992. Sanders won but it is clear he had a lot of anyone but Hillary voters in 2016 that are gone for the time being.

    We need to see how the candidates fair in Nevada and South Carolina with their minority voters. Bloomberg might win in South Carolina and then Super Tuesday.Report

    • Avatar George Turner in reply to Saul Degraw

      In 1992 Bill Clinton was always in the top three, and often second, which I don’t think was true of anyone else.

      He was third in Iowa behind Harkin and Tsongas.
      He was second in New Hampshire, and tied Tsongas (the winner) in delegates.
      He was third in Maine, behind Jerry Brown and Tsongas.
      He was third in South Dakota, behind Bob Kerrey and Harkin.

      It’s one thing for a newcomer to catch fire after a few primaries, but I don’t know if any presumed front-runners have ever come back from disappointing fourth, fifth, or sixth place showings.Report

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