Elephants vs Pachyderms

Luis A Mendez

Luis A Mendez

When he’s not writing supernatural stories, Luis Mendez is obsessively following public opinion trends and gauging likely election outcomes. He has written about the subject for various publications and runs a monthly updated website trying to predict coming elections.

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5 Responses

  1. Avatar Road Scholar
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s probably worth noting that the two announced challengers are the guy that was the Libertarian candidate for VEEP in 2016 and the guy that was Trumpy before Trump was Trump, Joe Walsh. A challenge from someone like Romney would be meaningful, but nope.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Road Scholar
      Ignored
      says:

      I agree a challenge from Romney would be meaningful- to be specific it’d be meaningful because Romney would get beaten like a rented mule demonstrating unambiguously how little electoral cachet the republitarian elite have with the actual Republican voting masses. That’s also probably why you won’t see Romney or any Romney like candidates running; they know their agenda is despised by their own electorate. Trump has short circuited the normal con the GOP elite have used during my adult life to corral their voters. Now the Romney clique mostly is just going to try and ride it out plundering what they can, pinning the blame on Trump and hoping that they can reclaim the party once/if the Trump phenomena burns itself out.Report

  2. Avatar Pinky
    Ignored
    says:

    I suspect that a credible candidate would get fewer votes than a protest-only candidate. By credible, I don’t mean someone who could beat Trump, but someone with presidential aspirations and a resume. Primaries are a good time to voice frustrations. A Ted Cruz would get shut down, but a John Doe would let voters vent a little, knowing that it wouldn’t mean anything. There’s no way to prove this theory, however.Report

    • Avatar Mike Schilling in reply to Pinky
      Ignored
      says:

      In 1992, the execrable Pat Buchanan was a populist protest against the establishment’s George Bush. In 2020, would the analogy be a more traditional Republican, or Alex Jones?Report

  3. Avatar Mike Schilling
    Ignored
    says:

    Turns out that the infant-in-chief can’t even stand pro forma challengers.

    Four states are poised to cancel their 2020 GOP presidential primaries and caucuses, a move that would cut off oxygen to Donald Trump’s long-shot primary challengers. Republican parties in South Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Kansas are expected to finalize the cancellations in meetings this weekend, according to three GOP officials who are familiar with the plans.

    Report

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