House of Commons: No Deal for May’s Government on Brexit
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s voice was so hoarse she could barely be understood, a glaringly obvious metaphor for the growing chaos building to the March 29th Brexit deadline. The latest version of a Brexit deal was soundly defeated, 242 in favor to 391 against, in the House of Commons Tuesday evening.
May: "I profoundly regret the decision that this House has taken tonight. I continue to believe that by far the best outcome is that the United Kingdom leave the European Union in an orderly fashion…The deal we've negotiated is the best and indeed the only deal available." pic.twitter.com/783YD23Nlj
— ABC News (@ABC) March 12, 2019
Earlier Tuesday, May warned lawmakers that if they voted down her deal, “Brexit could be lost,” implying that Britain could end up remaining in the European, despite voting to leave in the referendum of 2016.
The president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, echoed those warnings Monday night, claiming that there would be “no third chance” in the negotiations and “it is this deal, or Brexit might not happen at all.”
It looks increasingly likely that Brexit will be delayed. On Wednesday, lawmakers will vote on whether to leave the EU on the March 29 deadline with “no deal,” which is unlikely given that most politicians believe it will be hugely damaging for the British economy.
If they vote against “no deal,” another vote will take place on Thursday, where MPs will vote on whether to ask the EU to delay Brexit for the time being.
Losing the crunch vote represents a significant blow for the government’s Brexit plans — and could have significant implications for May’s future as prime minister.
One lawmaker from May’s own Conservative party told the BBC earlier Tuesday that if they lost the vote he could not see how the government could continue in office.
“I think there will have to be a general election,” senior Member of Parliament Charles Walker said. “Because this parliament now looks very much like a failing parliament… I can’t see really how this government can continue in office [after losing].”
Good, now if Corbyn would just pull his head out of his ass maybe they can get a new referendum.Report
I would not hold my breath for any British politician to perform the necessary craniogluteal surgery.Report
Me neither.Report
I’m certainly not holding my breath.
Presumably tomorrow Parliament votes against a no-deal Brexit, and on Thursday votes in favor of asking the EU for an extension. Pretty much everything I’ve read suggests that the EU’s response will be, “To what end?” France and Spain have both said they will reject an extension unless the UK has a concrete new proposal. It seems unclear whether “We’d like six months to hold another referendum” would be sufficient. The experts all seem to think that doing a referendum properly would take at least 24 weeks. A long delay would also require the UK to held elections for MEPs at the end of May, something some of the EU member states seem to be opposed to. PM May seems disinclined to rescind the Article 50 notice. Parts of Labour are muttering about new general elections.
I still think they’re going to bumble into a no-deal exit when the clock runs out.Report
I guarantee you that if the British asked for an extension to hold a second referendum the EU members would not only grant it but also throw a parade. Odds are pretty good that the remainers would turn out a lot more than before whereas the brexiters already did all they could.
Labour is, of course, muttering about an election now because only May and her Tories could possibly loose to Corbyn so this is the ol’ loons big chance.Report
I would never be bold enough to make a prediction but I’ve been curious if Brexit wouldn’t ultimately turn out the same way the French rejection of the EU constitution did. Obviously the stakes are higher but I just can’t see them stepping off the box now that they’ve tied their own noose. It wouldn’t only be the end of their economy for the foreseeable future but maybe the end of the UK.Report
The first Brexit referendum occurred in a climate where the #brexit folks were highly energized,; they actually got to vote on their pet policy; whereas the #remain folks were tinged with a great deal of incredulity- they wouldn’t be crazy enough- not enough people would vote that way- no one would be that starkers- etc…
There’s no ambiguity or incredulity now. The young, the Londoners, the business folks- they can’t be taken by surprise now. I expect the Brexit folks turned out about as much as they could but there’s a lot of growth room on the remain side of the coin. If they get another shot at a vote I would presume #remain will win. The brexit people think so too- that’s why they so emphatically don’t want another vote. The Tories think so too- it’d be their near worst outcome: Cameron put the country through all that as a political stunt, then it got defeated and everyone, brexit and remainers, ends up blaming the Tories for how it turned out.Report
Round 2: “If we leave the EU, the 350 million pounds per week Britain pays in dues will instead go directly to the NHS. And this time I mean it!”Report
I’m prepared to believe the EU would respond that way: a referendum is something concrete. I am not prepared to believe that there is any way that this government, and this Parliament, is capable of producing an extension request that explicitly says “We’d like six months for another referendum and ‘Remain’ is required to be one of the choices.”
I am looking forward to Thursday in a trapped-watching-a-train-wreck sort of way, to see what the government puts before Parliament, and whether amendments are allowed.Report
On this we are sadly in total agreement.Report
This is why I like things being tested at a state level. There are a lot of stupid ideas that should be shown off as examples of what not to do.Report
Britian leaving *is* the test at the state level, Dark.Report
Exactly. It’s the equiv of California or New Jersey leaving the union. The rest of the EU gets to learn what happens, and it’s probably going to be ugly. I’d prefer Greece left because they’re smaller and we trade with them less, but whatever.
If bad ideas are going to be tested I’d prefer they not be tested at a US federal level, which would be the equiv of the entire EU.Report
Ahh. Got it. I misunderstood your earlier comment.Report
The entire world seems to be falling into political incompetence these days.Report
Is this a record for the number of votes going against a UK PM and that PM still having a job?Report
Might be the first time in British history where the opposition doesn’t want to pick up the reins of power… at least not just yet thank you all the same.Report
That, and seeing Corbyn in the rearview mirror.Report
Internet technology makes it possible for me to live-stream Parliament’s debate to my desktop. Now, I need something that helps me understand a thick Irish accent.Report