The Anchor and the Waterline

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen is an attorney in Charlotte who writes and tweets about polls and elections.

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18 Responses

  1. Avatar Saul Degraw says:

    The Democrats will probably not flip the Senate but I think there are some real chances for a dark horse.

    One of the things I have said over the past few months is that I don’t think the GOP and/or GOP-sympathizing people realize how pissed off Democrats and/or liberals are. There is a lot of anger and rage and fed-up ness on the left side and these are pretty good motivators to get people to the pols. Democratic loathing of Trump exceeds anything under Bush II by several magnitudes. It is extending to the GOP too. People used to refer to the House Freedom Caucus and now I am seeing it written as House “Freedom” Caucus. Meaning left-leaning Americans and voters are launching challenges at the right for having a monopoly on how to define “freedom” and “liberty”

    The other aspect that might increase Democratic turnout is the Kavanaugh hearing and the handling of Dr. Ford’s accuations via outright dismissal.

    The Senate map is highly favorable to the GOP but the most at-risk Democrats are doing very well and Democrats look like they might be able to pick up a red seat or two. Beto O’Rourke might still be an underdog but he is giving Cruz a run for his money. Cramer had his Aiken moment last week.

    The GOP refuses to get this stuff though.Report

    • Avatar Kolohe in reply to Saul Degraw says:

      You might be right that the Republicans are stumbling and/or sleepwalking their way into disaster.

      But that’s also what we all were saying circa October 2016, too.

      (I certainly include myself in that we)Report

      • Avatar Saul Degraw in reply to Kolohe says:

        You could be right. My fear is that this becomes a close but no cigar election for Democrats. So losing 49-51 percent to Ted Cruz is an improvement but still a loss. We have to wait and see though.

        Kevin Drum had some polling showing that support for the Republican party among all women has collapsed except rural women and this was pre-Kavanaugh.Report

  2. Avatar Kolohe says:

    Oh, by the way, solid post right here. Do you or anyone else remember why unclear the 2002 data was garbage and file 13’d by CNN?Report

  3. Avatar Mark Boggs says:

    I’m wondering if Indiana’s 51% approval with neighboring Ohio’s at 44% has anything to do with VP Pence.

    And yeah, awesome post!!Report

  4. Avatar Jaybird says:

    I can’t believe I didn’t see this a couple of weeks ago.

    I go to 538’s webpage talking about Trump’s approval and jump back and forth between “All Polls” and “Polls of Likely or Registered Voters”.

    I look at the page for the Senate. The page for the House.

    I think about what we knew two years ago.

    What we knew a month ago.

    I think about “undecideds”. I wonder who in the heck would say “undecided” even though it’s 2018.Report

  5. Avatar Aaron David says:

    Interesting. Nicely put together.

    But why do I get the feeling that the HRC camp had some version of this in ’16?Report

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