The Anchor and the Waterline

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen

Brandon Allen is an attorney in Charlotte who writes and tweets about polls and elections.

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18 Responses

  1. Avatar Saul Degraw says:

    The Democrats will probably not flip the Senate but I think there are some real chances for a dark horse.

    One of the things I have said over the past few months is that I don’t think the GOP and/or GOP-sympathizing people realize how pissed off Democrats and/or liberals are. There is a lot of anger and rage and fed-up ness on the left side and these are pretty good motivators to get people to the pols. Democratic loathing of Trump exceeds anything under Bush II by several magnitudes. It is extending to the GOP too. People used to refer to the House Freedom Caucus and now I am seeing it written as House “Freedom” Caucus. Meaning left-leaning Americans and voters are launching challenges at the right for having a monopoly on how to define “freedom” and “liberty”

    The other aspect that might increase Democratic turnout is the Kavanaugh hearing and the handling of Dr. Ford’s accuations via outright dismissal.

    The Senate map is highly favorable to the GOP but the most at-risk Democrats are doing very well and Democrats look like they might be able to pick up a red seat or two. Beto O’Rourke might still be an underdog but he is giving Cruz a run for his money. Cramer had his Aiken moment last week.

    The GOP refuses to get this stuff though.Report

    • Avatar Kolohe says:

      You might be right that the Republicans are stumbling and/or sleepwalking their way into disaster.

      But that’s also what we all were saying circa October 2016, too.

      (I certainly include myself in that we)Report

      • Avatar Saul Degraw says:

        You could be right. My fear is that this becomes a close but no cigar election for Democrats. So losing 49-51 percent to Ted Cruz is an improvement but still a loss. We have to wait and see though.

        Kevin Drum had some polling showing that support for the Republican party among all women has collapsed except rural women and this was pre-Kavanaugh.Report

  2. Avatar Kolohe says:

    Oh, by the way, solid post right here. Do you or anyone else remember why unclear the 2002 data was garbage and file 13’d by CNN?Report

  3. Avatar Mark Boggs says:

    I’m wondering if Indiana’s 51% approval with neighboring Ohio’s at 44% has anything to do with VP Pence.

    And yeah, awesome post!!Report

    • That could certainly be a part of it. Though I think a big factor is that Indiana, at least on a presidential level, has been more GOP friendly than Ohio for multiple general election cycles (save the Obama 2008 win, which still has me scratching my head).Report

      • Avatar Kolohe says:

        Bush fatigue and Obama charm caused Obama to really expand the map in 2008 (and various groups turning out in different numbers than ‘normal’ – something that also happened in 2016).Report

  4. Avatar Jaybird says:

    I can’t believe I didn’t see this a couple of weeks ago.

    I go to 538’s webpage talking about Trump’s approval and jump back and forth between “All Polls” and “Polls of Likely or Registered Voters”.

    I look at the page for the Senate. The page for the House.

    I think about what we knew two years ago.

    What we knew a month ago.

    I think about “undecideds”. I wonder who in the heck would say “undecided” even though it’s 2018.Report

    • I having a working theory that many “undecideds” either 1) don’t want to admit their vote or 2) enjoy the added attention of being woo’dReport

    • Avatar Marchmaine says:

      Did you read this article about the Senate from yesterday?Report

      • Avatar Jaybird says:

        I hadn’t. It’s a good one.

        Trumwill made a very good point back in 2016 (or maybe early 2017).

        The problem wasn’t that the polls were wrong. Polls are polls. What are you gonna do?

        The problem was that all of the polls were wrong in the same direction.Report

        • Avatar Marchmaine says:

          On the other hand, I found this article’s insistence upon tracking Congressional success based on National Popular vote as clever, but disquieting propaganda for, well, thinking that National Popular vote was a good way to track Congressional Success.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird says:

            Yeah. If AOC wins with 85% of the vote in her district and Flyover Francis only wins with 51.2% of the vote for the Republicans when, previously, the number was in the 60s…

            I suppose that that’s a *MORAL* victory.Report

            • Avatar Marchmaine says:

              For me its the secondary more insidious argument that [even if we adopt a universal standard for district creation] somehow AOC’s votes are being wasted by being constrained to just her geography.Report

              • Avatar dragonfrog says:

                That is an accurate summary of one of the main things wrong with first past the post voting.Report

              • Avatar Marchmaine says:

                Sure, and I’m one of the folks here who’d like to break down some of the structural barriers to multi-party elections.

                But, the only thing worse than us picking and electing the idiot we have would be voting on a slate and getting the idiot Reince Priebus thought we should have.Report

  5. Avatar Aaron David says:

    Interesting. Nicely put together.

    But why do I get the feeling that the HRC camp had some version of this in ’16?Report