The new Reuters poll

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Aaron David

A fourth generation Californian, befuddled.

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23 Responses

  1. Avatar Maribou says:

    (note that I’m the one responsible for the excerpt… is it increasing support? is it decreasing non-support? whichever)Report

  2. So, libertarianism it is then.Report

  3. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Has anybody done the numbers on what happens to the Democrats if the African-American vote swings from 95%-5% to something more like 85%-15%?Report

    • Ask Hillary what happens when a segment of the African-American vote doesn’t turn out for Democrats when they expect them too, not just in percentage of vote but also turnout. She got 89% of the African-American vote compared to Obama’s 95+, depending on which numbers you want to use.538 did a thing on this using the Ga-6 election (Ossoff debacle) as a springboard to the same question you raise. AS for the Dems this is why they focus on Latinos so much; its rapidly become a larger, more powerful voting block.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird says:

        Part of me wonders if what happened to the Catholic vote after Kennedy will happen to the African-American vote after Obama.

        If it does, shooting for Latinos is probably the wise move.Report

        • Avatar Chip Daniels says:

          I’m not grasping the comparison between Catholics and black people.

          Kennedy’s victory showed that Catholics were finally a mainstream group;
          Obama’s election and the resulting backlash showed exactly the opposite.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird says:

            Well, before Kennedy’s election, the Catholics tended to vote in a bloc. After, they didn’t.

            I’m wondering if African-Americans might vote less in a bloc than they used to.

            (And my numbers were 85-15 rather than something completely unthinkable like 65-29.)Report

            • Avatar Chip Daniels says:

              They stopped voting as a block because both parties were welcoming of their interests and identity.

              What would it take for the party of Trump to be attractive to black people?Report

              • Avatar Jaybird says:

                Well, if you don’t mind me quoting the article that inspired this comment thread:

                “They’re taking less taxes out of my paycheck. I notice that.”

                Report

              • Avatar Chip Daniels says:

                That’s…amusing.
                Oh, I’m sure they have a tape of some guy actually saying that.

                I just find it amusing that they think this is somehow indicative of anything that actually moves elections.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird says:

                We can easily see the poll as an outlier and the one, crazy, guy they found to say something crazy as another outlier and there’s no story here at all.

                Onward to November!Report

      • Avatar greginak says:

        AfAm turnout was an issue for Hillary but, as i remember, she did as well as other D prez candidates except for Obama. She was a return to the recent mean. That isn’t really the issue for the next D candidate. If they are winning 90% of a group there isn’t likely to be that much to gain there in trying to get that number to 95%. Making sure turnout is solid is far more important. There are more new votes to get with Latinos.Report

        • the debate with regards to this is did HRC bring down turnout, or was Obama an outlier so strong that it was a return to the mean. I suspect its both with shading towards returning to the mean.
          The real question is their turnout not their number. 89% of 59% turnout (HRC)kills you. 95% of 66% turnout (Obama) gives you large margins. Comparatively, the Latino vote held steady in turnout from 2012 to 2016 with 48%, the number of eligible voter went way up, almost a million votes, because of the demographic change. They see the potential, but are yet to get them into the polls voting.Report

    • Entirely speculation, along regional lines… The Republicans’ holds on the South and Midwest get stronger; the Dems’ hold on the NE urban corridor gets weaker; it’s a non-event in the West. There are no western states where blacks are the largest minority group. In a few western states, they’re not even the second-largest minority group.Report

  4. Avatar Doctor Jay says:

    Well…online surveys do not impress me.

    And yeah, in some respects the Republican party would be a good match for a lot of black people, of whom a considerable few are religious and quite conservative personally.

    And I have not seen the Republican Party, on the national level at least, confront any issues they might have with messaging and/or policy that prevents that from happening. They just complain that “if they voted differently, the D’s would be in trouble”.

    I mean, maybe some of the stuff national politicians say isn’t intended as a dog whistle, but if the black people hearing it think it is, then it is. And if you want to appeal to them, you have to change your message so they don’t think that.

    As for young people – well, yeah, they are going to like lower taxes, because who doesn’t? I think the best line of attack on the tax cut is “Steaks for fat cats and crumbs for us”.

    But mostly this represents the state of the economy. The employment picture is really good right now, and that’s a good thing. I do not think the current administration will be very good at coping with a downturn, though. It will be great at finding scapegoats and blaming and pointing the finger, but that stuff doesn’t actually make things better.Report

  5. Two red flags for me here
    1) its an online survey
    2) despite hunting for them they don’t seem to be providing crosstabs to core data as all reputable polls do, which feeds into this being more survey for headlines than data-reliable poll.Report

    • Avatar Aaron David says:

      Normally they would be red flags for me also (in fact I was looking at some rather sketchy polls on other topics this AM) but Reuters is a pretty solid name, with a long history of solid numbers coming up. See their results of the ’12 election.

      In any case, this should be something the D’s look at very closely, accurate or not. If it is even remotely true, it is a noticable crack in the walls holding the coalition together.Report

      • Nothing against Reuters I just, especially if I’m going to us it publically, I like the openess of having the raw data like a Pew or other usually provide. There is also (I’m mobile at the moment or I’d hunt down and link it, I believe Pew did it) some preliminary data that shows Millenials may not trend percentage-wise more conservative as they age as previous generations tend too. So it’s worth keeping an eye on and watching.Report

    • Avatar Pinky says:

      This isn’t one of those “click here” online surveys.Report

  6. Avatar Saul Degraw says:

    The Democrats are still outperforming in various special elections.

    I am not impressed by much polling. A lot of people hold inchoate views that mangle left and right views. Pollsters get lazy and call these people moderates. Or these articles seemed contrived to cherry pick quotes to prove the moderate common sense of the American public because American mainstream media does not want to deal with political asymmetrical and increased partisanship.

    In short, you can find someone to say anything in a nation of 320 million.Report

    • Avatar Doctor Jay says:

      Right. To put what you said in other terms, there is no “likely voter” screen such as is used for the last couple months before an election.

      Andrew just posted the piece about how “Nobody” won the last election. Getting your voters to the polls is really important.Report

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