Morning Ed: Mindspace {2017.12.21.Th}
[Ms1] It takes brains to be irrational. (I know, I know, that’s not quite right, but roll with me here.)
[Ms2] Roger Scruton looks at our brains.
[Ms3] Jean Twenge believes smartphones are causing depression. As someone that has tried and failed to balance meatworld interaction with online interaction, this has more resonance with me now than it did ten years ago.
[Ms4] This strikes me as both straightforward and necessary.
[Ms5] Insomnia as identity.
[Ms6] Step aside, Superman (pose), and meet Batman (attire).
[Ms7] If one culture is sciences, and the second culture arts, Claire Lehmann wants a third culture.
[Ms8] The origins of the Type A Personality and how it relates to Big Tobacco.
[Ms9] As someone who has been known to waffle, I approve of this message. At least, I think I do. I mean, it could just be a matter of weakness. It really depends on the circumstances.
[Ms0]
Perceptions of Probability pic.twitter.com/DMKFd9wVBH
— Ninja Economics (@NinjaEconomics) August 30, 2017
Ms3: I avoid social media on my phone and limit it to my tablet (no cell service) or a PC.
Ms0: I think I understand what this is showing, but is there an explanation?Report
Ms0: I’m assuming they asked people, “How likely is something to happen if its odds are described as [blank]?” and that’s the results.Report
Heh… that’s my life decoding what customers tell me about completing the deal – and my subsequent translation into the sales tools for management reporting.
Second order skills involve the compound hedging: “it’s almost certainly a very good chance we’ll get this done before the quarter ends”
If the word “hopefully” appears anywhere in the sentence, deduct 25%.
Also… the term “We believe” which the chart tracks from 50%-80% certainty is wrong… it is in fact a -15% hedge, and not an actual category.
So, “we believe the deal will almost certainly close” is 95% – 15% = 80%. If you feel the need to interject existential epistemology into your process, I’m going to note it and deduct points.
Lastly, in my professional opinion, “Very good chance” is misrepresented at almost 80%… I’ll take “probable” and “likely” as much better indicators and would forecast “very good chance” below them at 60%.Report
The problem is the word chance. Whenever that shows up, all bets are off.Report
That’s right, hope, chance, believe… all those words (and words like them) will (or should) trigger follow-up questions to get to the bottom of why we’re hoping, believing, or gambling on the process.Report
I like the little bump at 10% for “better than even”.
This is a realist.Report
I was glad to see that “we believe” and “we doubt” got the greatest spread of results. They’re not terms which indicate probability.
On the bad side, some of those blips indicate that people have no conception of what probability means. “Highly likely” is 20%? “Little chance” is somewhere around 100%? I’m almost impressed at the hill around 50% for “Improbable”.Report
That’s what I think is probably going on, but there is a little chance that I’m wrong.Report
Ms7: Philosophy is the field which has claimed jurisdiction over the arts and sciences, as well as the designation of what falls under which. Philosophy is love of wisdom; it’s a framework within which we think about thought. A healthy philosophical life in our society would eliminate most of the problems discussed in this article.Report
Philosophy – a fancy word meaning “underemployed”.
😉Report
I know you’re jesting, but it’s worth noting that philosophy is not restricted to philosophers. Clearly, Jordan Peterson and Jonathan Haidt are philosophers, properly defined. So are Roy Moore and Colin Kaepernick. If we paid attention to who are thought leaders were, we’d be better off.Report
And our very own Jason, properly defined.
My ex-BIL has a BA in Philosophy, he used to joke that he was qualified to pontificate upon whether or not you would like fries with that. Last I checked he was working for ICE, so I guess he was a little more qualified than that.Report
Ms1 – I’m fairly sure this was the basis of Foucault’s entire canon.
Ms5 – As both a proud insomniac and a proud millennial, I think I may report my boss for workplace discrimination for forcing me to arrive so early in the morning.
Ms0 – When I was teaching English in Japan, my students would constantly ask me questions like, “what percentage is “probably”? What percentage is “maybe”?” As a hard descriptivist, I often found such questions absurd. But now, even though I cannot travel back in time and give such students the answers they deserve, I vow going forth that I will redeem the errors of my previous ways. All thanks to this crucial empirical research. Man, is it great to be alive!Report
From CNN, on the recent UN vote to condemn the Trump Admin’s decision regarding the Israeli capital:
“In the aftermath, Haley’s office said the support the US did get counted as a victory of sorts, pointing out that nine countries voted against, 35 countries abstained, and 21 were absent.
“While the resolution passed, the vote breakdown tells a different story,” a spokesman for the US mission said. “It’s clear that many countries prioritized their relationship with the United States over an unproductive attempt to isolate us for a decision that was our sovereign right to make.””
128 votes to condemn
9 against
35 abstain
21 absent
93% of those voting for or against chose to vote for.
74% of those present for the vote chose to vote for.
66% overall chose to vote for.
So, at best, 34% did not condemn the act. At worst, 7% did not condemn it. That, we are being told is a victory of sorts.
2016 election…
Trump won 57% of electoral votes (final tally after some electors went rogue).
He won 46% of the total votes cast.
He won the support of just over 25% of eligible voters.
That, we’re told, was a landslide.Report
Completely unrelated to anything here, here is something that doesn’t seem to be making political news:
http://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2017/12/19/mark-pody-mae-beavers-elections-vacant-district-17-state-senate-seat/961431001/
Tennessee’s Senate District 17 normally votes at least 60% Republican for their Senator. I can’t seem to find the presidential numbers, but someone on Twitter claimed it was about 25% for Hillary Clinton last election, and no one argued, so it was even more Trump than Republican.
And the special, state Senate election, in a red part of a red state…just basically tied. The Republican got 5990 votes, the Democrat 5682. To repeat: A special election, not in November, for a State Senate seat, aka, ‘The sort of election that Democrats are utter crap at turnout for’, basically tied.
But, of course, because the Republican still won, and because the tax bill stuff was going on, no one bothered to report yet another sign of how absolutely disastrous things are going for Republicans, how they have mysteriously and consistently lost ten to fifteen points of their vote somewhere since Trump took office.(1)
And, incidentally, let’s all remember that by the 19th the tax bill was clearly going to pass. People knew that when voting, assuming they didn’t early vote. Weirdly, passing an incredibly unpopular tax bill doesn’t seem to have helped Republican’s general popularity.
1) Or, to be technical, since Trump was nominated. Like what happened with Ossoff’s district, where ten points of Republican votes wandered away _before_ the 2016 election.Report