Election 2016: Last Call for Predictions
Alright, we’ve all talked about what we think is going to happen. We’ve all made predictions. Some very specific predictions, some changing predictions, and some wide-open predictions. But the election is tomorrow, and it’s time to lay down our markers.
What do you think is going to happen? What will the national popular vote be? Who will win what state? What odd specifics do you think are going to happen?
My prediction has been pretty constant since the convention at least, which is Clinton+6 and about 350 electoral votes. Here is the map, but the long and short of it is that I have Clinton winning every non-red swing state except Iowa and I have her picking up Arizona. For the popular vote, I’ll go with: Clinton 51%, Trump 45%, Johnson 3%, Other 1%. My off-the-wall prediction is that we’re going to find out that Clinton won North Carolina before we find out that Trump won Georgia. Race will be called pretty early, though not sure when.
In the senate, I predict the GOP wins Arizona, Indiana, Ohio, and Florida and lose Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Missouri. This is a 52-48 Democratic majority.
I predict the GOP will lose 12 House seats.