Morning Ed: World {2016.07.14.Th}

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Will Truman

Will Truman is the Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. He is also on Twitter.

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  1. Avatar Damon
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    says:

    Clothing: “However, the United States and the United Kingdom, the largest exporters of second-hand clothing, can also help to mitigate the problem by recognizing the effects of the second-hand donations on other markets and working with the governments and people of impacted countries to reduce the unintended consequences of the donation market.” Good question. The article didn’t provide any answers though.

    Toilet: Yep. Doubt anyone could not notice that. Gotta be intentional.

    Muslim brotherhood in Sweden: Time to panic!!!!!! OMG OMG OMGReport

  2. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Seeing a lot of “Hey! Maybe we can unbind delegates!” on my twitter timeline.

    When you use a trick that only works once, you pretty much need to make sure that the trick works the one time you can get away with using it.Report

    • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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      Sort of. Unbound delegates is not a “trick” exactly. it’s the norm. This is the first elections in which the delegates are all bound by RNC rules. So having unbound delegates isn’t a one-time thing.

      Changing the rules to overturn a primary outcome would be. Which is one of a handful of reason I don’t expect it to happen.

      I’m honestly on the fence. Early on, when I thought Trump had a shot in November, I thought they should do whatever it takes. When he slid and it looked less likely, I moved more towards a “Let him lose” position. His conduct since the end of the primary, though, has moved me towards “The party would be justified to use every lever it has” (and to some extent, if you don’t use them now, they effectively don’t exist anyway).

      Ultimately, though, doing this would require a degree of coordination that the party lacks and that, if the party had it, would not be in this position in the first place.Report

      • Avatar dragonfrog in reply to Will Truman
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        Not to mention, if the party machinated to change its rules at the 11th hour, what credibility would the chosen candidate have – and why would party members bother to vote in future primaries, knowing the party is willing to change all the rules if it doesn’t like the effects of democracy?Report

        • Avatar Will Truman in reply to dragonfrog
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          says:

          The ability to change the rules is one of the rules. The last word was explicitly given to not-the-voters. The main question is whether or not to play that… errr… trump card this time around. Whether the disaster threshold is sufficiently met by him.

          To me, that hinges on whether or not he has a chance in November. Losing an election because of terrible primary voters is one thing. Putting Trump in the White House is another. That’s how I view it, anyway. The delegates see things differently.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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            I don’t think that anybody is disputing the… what? Right? Power? Ability? of the party leaders to do this thing.

            I think that what they’re arguing about is the extent to which the village that they’ll be saving will be destroyed by their intervention.Report

            • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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              There is no obvious answer to that question.

              If it’s David Duke, it’s worth doing. If it’s Ted Cruz, it’s not worth doing. Where does Trump fall in that spectrum?

              You don’t know that until you know what the next four months look like. And we won’t know that for another four months.

              But unadulterated Trumpism is the future of the party, then there is nothing to save. You’re not doing it it save. You’re doing it for a different reason.

              As it stands, though, I don’t know which path leads to the fastest route of defeating this and getting back to a better place. If there is one. If there is not, see the previous paragraph.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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        says:

        I don’t want to get all “moral authority” because we’re talking about the people who nominated Mittler Rommelney but it seems to me that the twisted, Uruk-Hai, version of moral authority that the Republicans have would be internally damaged for at least until the primaries for 2018 and it’s as likely to result in a Tea Party on Orc Draught for those elections as the party leaders setting everything right.

        “You’re not in charge. We’re in charge. Hey. Where are you going?”Report

        • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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          says:

          I don’t know why but I burst out cackling uncontrollably and tented my fingers. I shouldn’t have; the country would be better off if the engines on both wings were running.Report

          • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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            says:

            I’m still noticing how many, erm, “incidents” we’ve had so far this summer and wondering if we’re going to have more.

            And wondering if there is a number of incidents that would impact the election negatively.

            And, by negatively, I mean “in Trump’s favor to the point where he’s going to be doing a better job of convincing undecideds than Hillary will be.”

            I’ve also been wondering about whether there is a Bradley effect and “undecided” is a much more socially acceptable way to say “Trump”.

            I’ve been wondering about Brexit.

            Surely Hillary has this in the bag, no?Report

            • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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              says:

              Polling of Brexit was fine. It predicted a close outcome and that’s what happened.

              Not worried about Trump until he hits the high 40’s outside of Rasmussen.

              Polling in the GOP primary actually exaggerated Trump’s support until the end when voters were moving towards him.

              With Pence, he might get more than 50% saying they prefer him as the nominee. At least temporarily. He has a lot of numbers that need fixing.

              So does Hillary, but not quite the same climb. I think it’ll be easier for her to get supporters back than Trump to get support he never had.Report

              • Avatar Kim in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                But Trump can outflank HIllary. It’s just a question of whether he wants to or not.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                Well, in the days that followed Brexit, I was gobsmacked by the sheer number of “but I don’t know anyone who voted for Brexit!” kinda essays that showed up.

                Do we know anyone who voted for Trump?Report

              • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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                says:

                Over half of the readers of Hit Coffee (excluding OT crossovers!) probably are: ScarletNumber, Kirk, Peter, Omega (maybe), Phi, Dave Hackensack.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                I’m not really interested (yet) in “will vote for Trump”. I understand that there is a dynamic now where people will feel that they have to choose between one of the two “real” parties.

                I’m more interested in whether we know anyone who voted for him in the primaries.

                If the answer to that question is “no”, we’re still in a very weird place.Report

              • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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                Dave Hackensack (Trumper Dave) did and has been with him since the beginning. Peter and ScarletNumber are registered Democrats, so they couldn’t vote for him in the primary. I suspect Phi did vote for him in the primary.

                With the exception of Omega, just about all of the people I listed are people that wanted Trump to win the GOP primary.

                Outside of HC but still online, there’s also Lion and Ed. Lion has been with Trump since the start. Ed was officially neutral in the primary, but was always Trump-curious and I think by the time the primaries got him, Trump was his preference of the three. Trump has been trying his patience lately, though.

                Which is sort of a thing on Twitter right now. A number of people that aren’t Trumpers, but want to like and support him or at least be okay with him, are having their job made difficult by Trump’s behavior.

                People I know offline supporting Trump are few and far between, I will admit. But we have polls we can look at. They’re indicating what is now a pretty low ceiling.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                Hrm. They should comment here more.

                I keep trying to try on a pro-Trump mindset to explore Trumpism and I’m certain that I’m doing it wrong.Report

              • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Jaybird
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                says:

                Most of them have tried commenting over here. It didn’t go well.

                If you want to enter Trumpworld, Lion’s blog is here. That’s where a lot of these people came from.

                Dave and Ed are on Twitter. I haven’t mentioned Jonathan, and his account is often locked, but you can try.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                Thank you.

                I’ve started following all three.Report

              • Avatar greginak in reply to Jaybird
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                Not very oddly i’ve met people who can’t believe anybody every voted for Obama since they don’t’ any D’s.Report

              • Avatar Jaybird in reply to greginak
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                says:

                “I can’t believe anybody would vote for X” is not the same statement as “I don’t know anybody who did vote for X”.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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                My own circles were full of Brits furious that they didn’t bother voting because they thought remain was obviously going to win.Report

              • Avatar Kim in reply to North
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                says:

                A friend of a friend spent 4 minutes crying — straight.
                Then he put it on youtube.Report

            • Avatar Aaron David in reply to Jaybird
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              @jaybird those are all DogWhistles!Report

            • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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              says:

              What I haven’t seen from the various incidents is any sign of Trump making much political hay on them .That’s a horrible thing to say but everyone presumed that that kind of stuff would redound to his benefit. Maybe it’s just because Trump stepped in it royally when they happened, maybe it’s because the attacks have mostly (correctly IMHO) been attributed to mental loons rather than terrorist machinations but I haven’t seen much Trump bounce.

              Right now HRC seems to be doing pretty well. Bernie being nailed down and Emailgazi were the biggest uncertainty in my mind. The former is done with and the latter ended up without criminal charges which means it’s going to be an administrative nothingburger in the general populations mind come November. So yeah the big hurdles seem past.Report

              • Avatar Will Truman in reply to North
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                says:

                I have long-since thought that reports that Trump would “pivot” to be exaggerated, but he’s really been a worse candidate than I thought he would be. Not in the sense of getting me to vote for him, because obviously that’s not going to happen. But keeping people on the fence and from embracing him? He’s actually made that easier than expected. Some people I thought were going to turn haven’t.

                That being said, HRC is not “doing well.” She’s just running against Donald J Trump.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Will Truman
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                says:

                In that this contest is a binary between her and Trump (with the obligatory Kodos reference re third parties) doing well and “just running against Donald J Trump” is pretty much synonymous.Report

  3. Avatar dragonfrog
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    says:

    I guess I have to watch Gundam now.

    Also, a terrible sounding kid’s movie called ‘The Impossible Elephant’, which was shot in Saskatoon when I lived there, and I accidentally rode my bike through a shot. They’d closed off the street for the shoot, but I left for school through the back alley, inside their exclusion zone. So one of the first sights of my ride was an elephant walking down the street behind my parents’ house – I only noticed the camera crew a moment later. They almost certainly didn’t keep that take, but I guess I’ll only know if I watch it…Report

  4. Avatar notme
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    says:

    First Manchin, now McCaskill

    McCaskill: Founding Fathers ‘Maniacal’ for Wanting Separation of Powers

    So sorry, lady.

    http://freebeacon.com/politics/mccaskill-founding-fathers-maniacal-wanting-separation-powers/

    Theses are the folks that accuse Trump of wanting to be a dictator.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to notme
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      says:

      And properly so, it was over then line. I’m glad most of my tribe called it out and I’m glad she had the self awareness to walk it back.Report

      • Avatar Troublesome Frog in reply to North
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        Seconded. This is how it should go. A number of her natural allies were honest enough to call it out as bad behavior and she did the right thing by admitting that she screwed up. How often does either of those things happen in politics?

        I also happen to think it’s super important that she publicly admitted that it was inappropriate. That would have been a bad precedent to set, and having an example of a justice having to publicly walk her remarks back should serve as a cautionary example. If she hadn’t, the standard would be set the same as it currently is for every other branch of government: Nothing is inappropriate as long as the only consequence is shame and you’re completely shameless.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to notme
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      A pity, Newt would have been so much fun but Pence is definitely an objectively better pick.Report

    • Avatar dragonfrog in reply to notme
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      How inconsiderate! Doesn’t he know there’s a veepstakes fundraiser going on?Report

    • Avatar Will Truman in reply to notme
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      (Originally retweeted by Trumper Dave, who I may have talked about.)

      Report

      • Avatar Will Truman in reply to Will Truman
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        says:

        Report

      • Avatar PD Shaw in reply to Will Truman
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        says:

        Coulter wrote a recent piece incorrectly assuming Lincoln had picked Hamlin as his Veep, and that the selection gave clarity of message because Hamlin was also opposed to slavery (zounds!!!). The Convention, not Lincoln, selected Hamlin as a means of reaching-out to the disgruntled New Yorkers who had supported runner-up Seward, but neither Seward nor anyone else from NY wanted to be Veep, and the Maine delegation approached the New York delegation and offered Hamlin, who wasn’t as offensive to New Yorkers as others being considered.

        Pence seems to fit that role, he’s the conservative governor who represents the conservatives and governors that lost out on the nomination, none of whom wanted the job themselves.Report

        • Avatar Will Truman in reply to PD Shaw
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          says:

          Pence is (was?) about as good a pick as he can manage. He’s not all that popular with conservatives right now. Or moderates. But he’s acceptable to both, and the congressional delegations like him a lot.

          I kind of want to criticize the pick, but the only knock is that he’s not likely to be good at his job of defending Trump inanity. But picking somebody who is, like Newt, kind of doubles down on it.Report

  5. Avatar notme
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    says:

    FBI knew Orlando shooter lied to them.

    http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-fbi-investigation-mateen-20160712-snap-story.html

    I wonder if these were the same folks investigating Hillary?Report

  6. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    How difficult would it be to make someone else’s house a Pokestop that is more likely to have rarish pokemans?

    Asking for a friend.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Et tu Jaybird? People keep roaming around the parking lot behind our condo bumping into each other and yelling out things like “Ratatata!” Or “Team Mystic!” I assumed they were drunks but they’re too well dressed. Even the local drunks think they’re weird.Report

    • Avatar Damon in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      I saw a video of this game.

      Shesh it looks stupid. I’d rather be casting spells, slaying monsters, and having hot sex with sorceresses, aka WitcherReport

    • Avatar Chris in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Come to the Texas Capitol. I have seen dozens, I suspect into the hundreds, of people playing over the last few days. Apparently there are many Pokemon and a gem there. Just today I overheard a conversation about Charmander, whom I remember from when my son played Pokemon in elementary school.Report

    • Avatar Michael Cain in reply to Jaybird
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      says:

      Something I was skimming the other day said that Pokéstops are a subset of Ingress portals from Niantic’s previous game, and that Niantic isn’t accepting suggestions for new portals. So, a matter of hacking the database, I suppose…Report

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