Veepstakes Fundraiser


Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Ordinary Times. Relapsed Lawyer, admitted to practice law (under his real name) in California and Oregon. On Twitter, to his frequent regret, at @burtlikko. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.

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63 Responses

  1. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Hickenlooper/Kasich. We’ll set it up tonight.Report

  2. Avatar Michael Cain says:

    $30 on group A, Giuliani/Castro.Report

  3. Avatar Plinko says:

    $30 on Gingrich/Brown (H).Report

  4. Avatar aaron david says:

    $30 on Group C Christy/Warren please!Report

    • Avatar Burt Likko says:

      Thank you, @aaron-david , @plinko , and @alan-scott for your pledges! (@plinko is currently bid out for for Group H but we’ll see how this game winds up getting played.)

      As for me, I’m going to play also, but I’ma give all of you a chance to get in ahead of me. I know where **I** think the sweet spot is, and no one has taken it yet.Report

  5. Avatar Don Zeko says:

    I am very disappointed that I’m not in a fiscal state where I feel comfortable donating right now, but I like the looks of space I. Perhaps things will change before this campaign concludes.Report

  6. Avatar North says:

    I’ve failed so badly at predictions this season that I’m not going to embarrass myself by even trying to pick a group for Veep. I’ll just throw my normal donation in when it gets set up.Report

  7. Avatar Roland Dodds says:

    30$ for Giuliani/ Kaine.

    Maybe by writing it down, it won’t happen.Report

  8. Avatar Marchmaine says:

    $30 on Green. It doesn’t matter who the people are.Report

    • Avatar Burt Likko says:

      You’ve actually got some sweet combos in group B, including the combo with both runners-up from the primaries (Cruz/Sanders).

      And thank you for your pledge!Report

  9. Avatar Burt Likko says:

    I’m putting myself down for group G. It has Kasich/Kaine, Huckabee/Heinrich, Cruz/Castro, and Christie/Hickenlooper, which all seem to me to be reasonably likely still (although I understand Christie is making demurring noises right now but we’ll see how things look later).

    Remember, bidding is open until the first running mate is announced! Groups E, I, and J are still open, and you can out-bid someone else for a group you prefer.Report

  10. Avatar Francis says:

    I’ll take none-of-the-above for $30.Report

    • Avatar Burt Likko says:

      Sorry, it doesn’t work that way. If a candidate goes “off the board” and picks someone not on the list, the entire pool goes to the site’s benefit.

      We’ll still accept a pledge, though!Report

      • Avatar Francis says:

        boo. I’ll take J, then.

        can we make side bets as to whether the final pick is on-board vs. off-board? Distribute the losing pool to the winners based on their percent contribution to the winner’s pool and the house keeps a rake of 10%.Report

        • Avatar Burt Likko says:

          Well, the house is taking a rake of 50% (it **is** a fundraiser, after all). And at this point there’s a fair number of participants with skin in the game and it doesn’t seem fair to change the rules on them.

          But then again, it **is** a fundraiser. And here’s someone who wants to give the site money. It behooves us to accommodate. So hmm. How about this:

          If you’ve already pledged for a square, you can make an additional pledge, “off the board” for a specific set of running mates (one for Clinton, one for Trump), for an entry-level pledge of $10.00. As with the group of combinations “on the board,” a specific combination can be “bid up” by other players. If that combination turns out to be a correct prediction, you take half the pot as before. Since the pot right now is $305, that still seems a pretty good ROI should you win. And, of course, there’s the ability to request a post from me.

          Whaddya say?Report

          • Avatar Francis says:

            Sounds good. I’ll need to think about my pairing.

            To be clear, I think you misunderstood my side bet proposal. I was not suggesting taking anything away from the on-the-board bets. I was suggesting an additional bet: will the actual VP nominees be found on the board? As a simple yes-no bet, there would only be two sides. Assume people put in a total of $100 on the no and $25 on the yes. If the no side wins, each $1 bet returns $1.25, less the rake. If the yes wins, each $1 bet returns $5, less the rake.Report

          • Avatar Marchmaine says:

            How about this… for a $5 kicker you can buy a chance at winning the entire pool (sorry OT) in the unlikely event that any of your pairs team up for a 3rd party bid.

            So, for example, the as yet un-taken Orange boxes would have the attractive possibility of a Cruz/Warren ’16 ticket. Just a thought.Report

  11. Avatar Alan Scott says:

    come on, folks. We gotta get two more people in this game. I wanna see people getting outbid by someone besides me.

    I can’t be the only chump who put up more than $30 bucks.Report

    • Avatar North says:

      I’m contributing $100 directly to the site, but I don’t have a bet. I’ve been humbled by the Trumpkins in the nomination race and don’t want to hex the important contest by repeating my previous actions.Report

        • Avatar North says:

          You’re welcome, are you going to put up a paypal link or have I simply overlooked it somewhere?Report

          • Avatar Burt Likko says:

            Yes, when the time comes I’ll post a paypal link. For now, no one has to actually pony up money because we’re in the “bidding war” phase — until one of the presumptive nominees announces a running mate’s identity.

            I’ve heard rumors that Trump will not announce until the Republican convention actually begins, so that’s July 18-21; the Democratic convention is the week after that, July 25-28. But I’d look to the Clinton campaign to do things a bit more traditionally and announce at least a month before the convention.Report

  12. Avatar Kolohe says:

    Group E is still open as of now? (May 11 2:30 pm eastern time?) I’ll take that if so.Report

  13. Avatar Slade the Leveller says:

    As I can’t identify any more than a handful of the listed names whose being a heartbeat from the presidency doesn’t scare the wits out of me, I’m just going to vote OT and make a direct pledge of $50.

    Sometimes you get Millard Fillmore, and sometimes you get Teddy Roosevelt. I suspect we’re more on the Fillmorean end of the scale with this list. Doesn’t anyone care about this country anymore?Report

  14. Avatar Marchmaine says:

    The Atlantic Posts their front runner list for Trump

    Man, everybody wants a piece of Sandoval… first the Supreme Court, now VP… would think he has enough on his plate with the Red Sox.

    Otherwise, pretty good overlap with your guesses. I’d vote on scrubbing Huckabee and Tancredo for anyone else on the list. {Can Ben Carson *really* be a serious guess?}Report

    • Avatar Burt Likko says:

      I tell you what, picking potential Veep choices for Trump was tough. I put Huckabee on the list because Huckabee’s wife happens to be on Trump’s VP selection committee. Which Ben Carson happens to chair. So I don’t think those are totally unrealistic choices — consider the precedent of Dick Cheney serving as the chair of GWB’s running mate selection committee, and look at who he determined was the best choice?Report

      • Avatar Michael Cain says:

        You appear to have done better than the Atlantic on one possibility, since you don’t have Martinez of New Mexico on your list. Unless the Donald is planning to say this week that she’s not doing her job right, and then next week tacks on, “so she’ll be GREAT on my team!”Report

      • Avatar Marchmaine says:

        Yeah, don’t get me wrong, I’m impressed with the overlap… given that VP is more of a superhero side-kick and picked more for complementary (if equally fictitious) super-powers (and sartorial sense) than according to any sort of real calculus, I’m not sure how you even begin to forecast.Report

  15. Avatar Michelle says:

    I’m liking Group H, so I’ll bid $40 for H.Report

  16. Avatar Roland Dodds says:

    If only I could update my pick to reflect Trump’s obvious running mate this year: Tila Tequila.Report

  17. Avatar Michael Cain says:

    $35 on Group E, Christie and Castro. Christie is clearly aiming for it. Castro looks really good in theory, but is bad in practice, which is Hillary’s shortcoming.Report

  18. Avatar Elizabeth Picciuto says:

    $35 on C.Report

  19. Avatar Burt Likko says:

    I’ve re-set the date of posting for this post back to the original date (May 4). This will close comments on the original post. You may, however, continue veepstakes trash-talk and bidding at the Veepstakes Update of June 20, 2016, complete with a link to a purported leak of the Clinton campaign’s shortlist that came from two media sources on the same morning. Good luck to all, and thank you again for your pledges!Report