Nate Silver: A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary
But we also have a lot of new information at our disposal. Trump’s polling has held up well in the Northeast, and he has a good chance to beat the panel’s original projections in New York and Connecticut. On the flip side, his loss in Wisconsin bodes poorly for his performance in Indiana, another state we originally had as leaning toward Trump. So it’s time to revisit our projections, going through the remaining states one at a time.
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[W]e’re not yet at the point where absolutely everything has to go right for Trump to clinch 1,237 delegates after California; although he can’t afford major setbacks such as losing Indiana or Maryland.
Nate Silver: A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary
I remain somewhat bullish on Trump’s odds compared to most of my twitter peers and pundits, because most have written off Montana for him and I think he can win it as well as do well in New Mexico and even maybe South Dakota. Ultimately, though, it’s going to come down to California. A relatively small victory there can net him a lot of delegates because CD-based delegations are awful. While I have it on good authority when rules seem unfair we should just ignore them or something, I don’t think those rules are going to be ignored. On the other hand, this gives me hope that California may be a bust for him.Report
To me, the thing that makes me think Trump will do poorly in CA is the survey mentioned in that article showing he doesn’t do especially well in NYC. I was predicting a solid win in CA based on the fact that he was doing well in NY. But that was assuming he’d do well in big blue cities. If his success in that state is more about the votes in the rest of the state, then you can just consider NY another New England State. And by that logic, CA is just a western state, and that’s Cruz territory.Report
Is there any information about how well Trump does over rural-urban-suburban cleavages? My sense of it is that he does better in rural areas. California is a generally pretty urban state.Report
I can’t think of a general breakdown of this off the top of my head, but my sense is that it has varied significantly by region and phase of the race: Rubio was pretty good in urban and suburban areas, while Cruz seems stronger in rural areas, especially in the West. Kasich is strong in Ohio. The best quick source I’ve got are the county-by-county maps on Wikipedia, which don’t show an obvious pattern at a glance.Report
In the sense that the people in California live in the urban parts of it, sure. But by area not so much. The swing and republican districts are mostly the big empty ones in the eastern half of the state, and I’m betting those all go to Cruz. But that’s still only about 20% of what’s up for grabs.Report
Rural was Marla, urban was Ivana, and suburban was Melania.Report
I’m unconvinced he’ll reach the number of delegates that he needs and if he doesn’t Cruz will take the convention easily.Report