Nate Silver: A State-By-State Roadmap For The Rest Of The Republican Primary
But we also have a lot of new information at our disposal. Trump’s polling has held up well in the Northeast, and he has a good chance to beat the panel’s original projections in New York and Connecticut. On the flip side, his loss in Wisconsin bodes poorly for his performance in Indiana, another state we originally had as leaning toward Trump. So it’s time to revisit our projections, going through the remaining states one at a time.
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[W]e’re not yet at the point where absolutely everything has to go right for Trump to clinch 1,237 delegates after California; although he can’t afford major setbacks such as losing Indiana or Maryland.