Why the looming Trumpocalypse hasn’t yet put the House in play (and may not ever) – dKos
In just the last week, we’ve seen new chatter about the possibility that Donald Trump could put the House in play for Democrats, as non-partisan analysts, giddy liberals, and even some anguished Republicans have started wondering whether Trump could pull off such a remarkable feat. But while it’s certainly not impossible to imagine, any such conclusions are very premature. There’s still far too much we don’t know—and won’t know—unless and until Trump is the nominee (and of course, he may not be). Democrats have certainly bet wrong before on the effects a supposedly “unacceptable” Republican standard-bearer might have for his party.
But one thing we do know does not augur well for Democrats: Because a House takeover has seemed so remote this cycle, the party has struggled to land strong candidates in a large enough number of potentially competitive districts to even contemplate overcoming its 30-seat deficit. The prospect of a Trumpocalypse has only started to feel real quite recently, and it’s somewhat late in the game to mount a serious campaign against an incumbent. What’s more, filing deadlines have passed in 37 percent of the nation’s 435 House districts, so even if legitimate contenders wanted to take a second look, in many cases, they couldn’t.