South Carolina, Democratic Bellwether | Dissent

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Will Truman

Will Truman is the Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. He is also on Twitter.

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  1. Avatar Art Deco says:

    What’s happened to Dissent? A generation ago, they paid little attention to topical questions of this sort. You might see an editorial on some foreign policy question, but that would be about it.

    I think he’s wrong concerning 2004. In 2004, none of the Democrats were particularly established figures (bar Richard Gephardt re Capitol Hill only). You had an abrupt cascade in Iowa in favor of John Kerry and John Edwards in January of 2004 and the two of them rolled over everyone else from then on; there was not much regional differentiation at all.

    The 1992 campaign was unusual in that the nomination was won by a candidate who won only one of the first dozen contests; no other competitive campaign since 1970 has had that rhythm. His first win was not in South Carolina, though. It was in Georgia.

    The states Hellary competes well in are front-loaded, so the question which arises is whether a mess of wins on 1 March will reverse her slide in surveys of the national Democratic electorate. (She went from a 25% plurality ca. mid-December to a 5% plurality mid-February, with the outlier poll showing Sanders leading).Report

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