South Carolina Primary Rumor Mill
Voting just began a few hours ago. It’s too early to speculate, but we’re starting to hear reports, rumors, and speculation.
It appears as though some Republicans have gone to the polls to vote for Donald Trump. Others, it appears, are voting for or have voted for Ted Cruz. We are also ready to project that Marco Rubio, John Kasich, and Ben Carson will be getting votes as well. There are rumors that some will be voting for Jeb Bush, though we find these rumors far-fetched.
Please understand that these are early projections and we have no way to confirm whether they are true or false. For now we’re just going to assume that they are all true. Except for Jeb Bush receiving votes, because that seems spurious.
If Donald Trump receives more votes than his rivals, that will confirm his “Get more votes than the other candidates” strategy, which has so far been successful. This was the strategy used by George W Bush in 2000 and it turned the tide of that primary. Here, if successful, the strategy would help Trump keep his national lead and could — I repeat could — put him on the path to the nomination.
Ted Cruz’s more controversial strategy appears to be discouraging voters from voting for anyone else. This could also prove to be effective, if the end result is that fewer people vote for the other candidates than vote for Mr Cruz. This strategy would require better implementation than Chris Christie’s similar strategy in New Hampshire, however. On the other hand, given there are expected to be some voters for Cruz, this strategy could be successful.
Marco Rubio’s strategy of assuming the existence of votes in the hopes that they materialize continues apace, and if those assumed votes do in fact materialize it would help his election prospects.
We will not know the success of Ben Carson’s strategy, which is selling books, until Amazon next releases sales numbers.
I must repeat, however, that most of what we are presently hearing are reports only, and should be taken with a grain of salt until we can confirm them. We do not know, for instance, whether John Kasich will actually be receiving votes.
All of the above reports and rumors are probably true, though. Except the one about people potentially voting for Jeb Bush. We are waiting for confirmation before lending that one any credibility.