How Google Searches Pretty Much Nailed the New Hampshire Primary – Bloomberg

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Will Truman

Will Truman is the Editor-in-Chief of Ordinary Times. He is also on Twitter.

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8 Responses

  1. Avatar veronica d says:

    I mean, this is way too post-hoc. Yeah, search frequency tells us something. Obviously. But would you bet on that variable alone?Report

    • Avatar Will Truman says:

      Well, there’s not much argument about correlation here. It’s mostly answering the question that was asked extensively in the runup to the election as everyone was looking at the numbers: Is this indicative of anything? People were arguing about it.

      Turns out that there appears to be a relationship. At least in New Hampshire. Something tells me we’re going to know a lot about it as time goes on.

      Then it’s going to become useless because the campaigns will skew the results with bots.Report

      • Avatar Jaybird says:

        Then it’s going to become useless because the campaigns will skew the results with bots.

        What makes this (inevitable) result so frustrating is that it obscures information that would otherwise be useful.

        But, I suppose, information that is more useful to the 1st place person than the 3rd place person is information that Thirdy would want to keep out of Firsty’s hands…Report

        • Avatar Kim says:

          Ten’ll get you 100 that someone’s already got something better than google searches to poll the internet. (In fact, my wager is that I know the guy who wrote it).

          Betcha you could do something nice pulling data off Facebook or Twitter.

          [legal? don’t ask me about legal]Report

          • Avatar veronica d says:

            Twitter would be easy. FB more difficult, cuz privacy settings. But still, this tells you something, and maybe more than landline polls, but all the same, a bunch of Tumblerites posting stuff doesn’t tell you who will get to the polls nor what they’ll do when they get there.

            I’ll probably vote for Clinton, but I don’t really post much about it cuz I don’t want to listen to all my Sanders-friends. So.Report

            • Avatar Kim says:

              The trolls I know are waaay more likely to hack in the back end of something, than to pay attention to privacy settings.

              … they’re really not the sort of people you want to pick fights with.Report

              • Avatar veronica d says:

                I suspect unfettered access to FB data is very non-trivial. Likewise, there is a ton of obvious selection bias in scraping the “public” posts.

                In any case, this is a lot of data, and one can control for the bias in various ways. But just “raw search count” is not the right way.Report

  2. Avatar Kolohe says:

    I got to think Governor Carcetti’s vote totals way underperformed his Google analytics.Report