Trouble in Clinton Land?


Aaron David

A fourth generation Californian, befuddled.

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25 Responses

  1. Avatar Jesse Ewiak says:

    I put as much proof into these polls as I do with the same polls from a few weeks ago showing Hillary up by 10-15 nationally on Jeb and friends.

    Two or three more polls like this, OK. But, 1 out of 20 polls are just crap due to statistical error.Report

  2. Avatar Burt Likko says:

    She’s polling about as well as Biden or Sanders against the same opponents in the measured jurisdictions. This tells me about as much as a “generic Democrat versus generic Republican” report.Report

  3. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Ask not whether Clinton might be in trouble. Ask whether the Republicans could mess up a two man parade.

    If we find ourselves with a couple of Republicans who might not, in fact, mess that up?

    *THEN*, perhaps, Clinton might be in trouble.Report

  4. Avatar Jesse Ewiak says:

    …and is if on cue, here’s a PPP poll with healthy Clinton leads nationally (and if Clinton is winning nationally, she’s not losing Virginia or Colorado).

    “Clinton is in pretty good shape when it comes to potential general election match ups as well. She leads all of the potential Republican candidates by anywhere from 3 to 13 points, comparable to a month ago when her advantages over them ranged from 3 to 7 points. The Republican who comes closest to Clinton is Rand Paul, who trails by 3 at 45/42. Also coming close are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Scott Walker all of whom trail by an identical 5 point margin at 46/41.”Report

  5. Avatar Kolohe says:

    1) is it common for ‘non-partisan’ polling firms to use horserace value judgements in their headlines?

    2) does anyone else ever author a press release that interviews themselves in the third person?Report

    • Avatar Michael Drew says:

      Yeah, the notion of anyone (other than true longshot candidates who won’t get nominations) being “In Trouble” for the general election in July of an odd-number year is ridiculous. But even thinking of September of the election year, your question is a good one. I don’t recall releases by the polling groups themselves (as opposed to the press affiliates associated with them) issuing interpretations like ‘in trouble’ in past years, but I don’t know that I ever look that closely. Perhaps this will be a new thing from polling orgs looking to draw some eyeballs directly to themselves rather than just to the news orgs they sell their stuff to.Report

    • Avatar Stillwater says:

      does anyone else ever author a press release that interviews themselves in the third person?

      Me: Do you think your historically highly accurate assessment of Hillary’s chances is impacted by this Quinnipiac study?

      Stillwater: Thanks for the question, Stillwater, and I appreciate your compliments on my track record. But no, it doesn’t. Fact is, lots and lots of people really don’t like Hillary, and her political style continues to reinforce that negativity.Report

  6. Avatar Vikram Bath says:

    Why only report on Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia?

    Digging through the questions at the end is interesting regardless. It seems people do think Clinton has good leadership skills, but they rate her as not really caring that much about “people like me”. (I forgot if that’s an exact quote or not.)

    I have to admit that tracks well with what I actually think of her.Report

    • Avatar Kazzy says:


      I mean this genuinely… what do you mean by “people like you”? Are you speaking demographically? Ideologically? Something else?Report

      • Avatar Chris says:

        It’s a common poll question:

        “Please indicate how much you agree with the following statement: ________ cares about people like me.”

        Or some variant thereof.Report

        • Avatar Kazzy says:

          Sorry… I meant specifically to @vikram-bath . If he feels that Hilary doesn’t “care about people like Vikram”, what does it mean to “be like Vikram”.

          For instance, if I said so-and-so doesn’t care about people like Kazzy, I could be saying anything from, “They don’t care about teachers,” to “They don’t care about upper class straight cis white men.”

          Which doesn’t mean that feeling as if a candidate doesn’t care about you doesn’t matter. I’m just trying to ascertain which segment(s) of society Vikram thinks Hilary doesn’t care about.Report

        • Avatar Vikram Bath says:

          @kazzy, I did indeed mean what Chris said. Question #49 is

          Would you say that – Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

          And personally I interpreted it in the omnipresent “middle class” way rather than does she *specifically* care about the concerns about this person she doesn’t know anything about.

          I have a slight revision though. I think I would have rated all of the candidates they ask about in the lowest category for that. I think coke-encrusted Hollywood exec cares more about my needs and problems than anyone on that list.Report

          • Avatar Kazzy says:

            Thanks, Vikram.

            I don’t know if any of the candidates care about me because, well, that would involve knowing the candidates.

            Again, as a straight, white, cis, upper-class male, I have to assume the Republicans by-and-large due, I guess? Which isn’t to say that the Democrats don’t? Then again, I’m a school teacher and a part-time SAHD and I have two young kids one of whom has presented with potential medical issues that almost got us royally screwed by insurance and I don’t know if any of those are particular points of caring for the Reps so maybe they don’t care about me?

            More importantly… perhaps because I am a straight, white, cis, upper-class male with a liberal bend, I’m less concerned with how much the candidates care about me and people like me in those ways.

            It is an interesting question, nonetheless.Report

            • Avatar Vikram Bath says:

              >straight, white, cis, upper-class male

              >school teacher and a part-time SAHD and I have two young kids one of whom has presented with potential medical issues that almost got us royally screwed by insurance

              I can’t speak for you, but I’m just going to take a guess that you identify more with the second category than the first? But even if that’s the case, I wouldn’t then jump to the conclusion “therefore everyone who runs as a Democrat cares for my needs and problems.”

              And think of the converse. Do you really think rich people sit around thinking “I’m going to vote Republican because those guys care about people like me”? I think at best they might think “well, these guys don’t care about me, but maybe my taxes won’t go up as much when it’s all done”Report

              • Avatar Kazzy says:


                I do identify more with the latter, which is why I was curious to see what/how you identify and how that impacted your perception of Hilary and her level of concern for folks “like you”.

                I guess it depends on what we mean by “care”. I mean, the Republicans certainly do seem to enact policies that are better for rich folks than the Democrats do. Whether that means they “care” about them or simply cater to their interests… I don’t know what the difference is.

                I actually don’t know how much any politician cares about anyone other than him/herself.Report

              • Avatar Vikram Bath says:

                Kazzy: I was curious to see what/how you identify and how that impacted your perception of Hilary and her level of concern for folks “like you”.

                But I contain multitudes!

                Though now that I am trying to write something, I have a hard time coming up with more than “people like me are professionals and people who would otherwise work in the professions.”Report

          • Avatar Vikram Bath says:

            To put it a little more clearly and bluntly, we have at least two reasonable possibilities. It’s a given that all politicians in the race save maybe Trump say they care very deeply about our needs and problems. It’s possible they do this because they do indeed care deeply, but it’s also possible they do this because they want very badly to be president. The latter hypothesis explains a lot more than the former. Additionally, the former has to deal with the fact that politicians change what they say and support to match what seems to be more likely to get them elected and people (at least here on OT) expect that of them.

            Out of the list the person I’d say this is least likely to apply to is perhaps Bernie Sanders. He seems to be consistent enough that maybe his imploring that he cares about people is at least partially real.Report

      • I’ve never heard Hillary say a word that indicates she understands the problems of pseudonymous posters on liberaltarian blogs.Report