It’s Getting Drafty In Here: 2000s Edition

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Kazzy

One man. Two boys. Twelve kids.

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20 Responses

  1. Avatar Tod Kelly says:

    My single quibble is that I would put 2008 at three, or perhaps even two. (2008 v 2009 is the only matchup in the lot I wuld get excited about seeing in a 7-gamer.)Report

    • Avatar Kazzy says:

      Teams 2-5 are the tightly packed ones so you could make a strong case for any ordering of them.

      It is possible that I skewed towards some of the earlier teams because we know who those guys are better. We know who Tony Parker is. I’m still not sure who DeAndre Jordan is and even Kevin Love has me raising an eyebrow.Report

      • Avatar Tod Kelly says:

        My worries about 2009 — and why I might slide them down from two to three — is it seems like a lot of people who have a history of wanting to be the alpha at the expense of team ball. (Curry not so much this year, but I would like to wait and see what he does in serious playoff basketball before counting on him to be a distributor when it counts.) Too many guys who need to have the ball most of the time.

        Though to be honest, if it had been me I would have left Budinger off and picked Tyreke Evans in his place.Report

  2. Avatar Vikram Bath says:

    Wow. This post really drives home how little I’ve paid attention to pro basketball for a while. I don’t know most of these names.Report

  3. Avatar Chris says:

    Marcus Camby was drafted in 1996.Report

    • Avatar Steve says:

      Was about to point this out as well.

      The 2000 draft class is probably the worst out of the last 30 years. Moving someone who wasn’t even in it still doesn’t help it that much.Report

  4. Avatar Kazzy says:

    Chris,

    I meant Kenyon Martin. I’ll change it. I mix those guys up sometimes because of some similarities to their careers.Report

    • Avatar Chris says:

      Man, Camby was one of the best college players ever, but was one more piece of evidence that being a a superstar big man in the NBA is as much about luck as it is about skill.Report

      • I do not want to jinx things by naming a very good big man who might finally have a healthy playoffs.Report

      • Avatar Steve says:

        Camby when healthy actually had a pretty good pro career also. The fact that he wasn’t a primary scorer in the pros diminishes most people’s impression of his success, but he was an elite defensive player and rebounder. Those are both vital skills for NBA teams to have on the court. The biggest problem was he wasn’t healthy for many seasons and missed basically two seasons of his peak career.

        In his own draft class, I have him ranked 5th (behind Ben Wallace, who wasn’t drafted) but ahead of Iverson. Which is only a minor disappointment with the 2nd pick. The actual 2000 2nd pick was mediocre (Swift), and the 2001 and 2003 2nd picks were total busts, as a comparison.Report

        • Avatar Chris says:

          The biggest problem was he wasn’t healthy for many seasons and missed basically two seasons of his peak career.

          Right, this is the luck issue with big men. It’s really hard for their legs to hold up over multiple 82 game seasons, which results in many exceptionally talented big men, like Camby, losing out some of their best years. This is likely true of Howard as well, to say nothing of Bynum and Oden, or classicaly, Sam Bowie. I worry that it will happen with Anthony Davis, too, who’s shown a proneness to leg injuries. Hell, it even got Durant this year, though I’m hoping that his otherworldly physical makeup will allow him to come back at full strength.Report

          • Avatar Steve says:

            Agreed, but it doesn’t really put Camby in some unusual company and he’s nowhere near as crippled by injuries as Bynum or Bowie or Oden. He actually had a very good stretch of years after he missed those two seasons (03-04 season to the 09-10 season, and even the next two seasons he remained an effective defender/rebounder in more limited minutes), including the defensive player of the year award. Bynum/Bowie/Oden doesn’t have anything like that. They were hurt more persistently as well.

            He’s not on Howard’s level (Howard scored more to make him a borderline HoF career), much less Duncan/KG/Hakeem (elites). I’m not arguing that. But he’s a lot better than people expect. If his draft class includes Ray Allen, Kobe, Nash, AI, Peja, and an undrafted Ben Wallace, most people probably would not think he’s in the top 5.Report

          • Avatar Chris says:

            Right, I don’t mean to suggest that Camby was completely hobbled by injuries, merely that his peak was limited by injuries in a way that many big men have their peaks limited in what might otherwise been. Camby played in all or part of 17 season. In only 3 of those did he play 70 or more games (79, 72, and 70), in 11 he played fewer than 60, and six of those were 40 or fewer. He averaged double-digit rebounds for all but one year in his prime, but played 63, 29, 29, 72, 66, 56, 70, 79, 62, 41, 23, and 59 games in that stretch. Seventy-nine is a full season, we can even give him 70 and 72, but that means that in 17 years he played 3 full seasons, and frequently played 2/3 of a season or less. That’s what injuries do to big men. That he somehow made it 17 seasons suggests that he had some serious healing capacity or an incredible work ethic, or both.

            Injuries get 1s, 2s, and 3s as well, of course, but great big men seem to have careers limited by them at a higher rate. This is why someday Tim Duncan’s legs will have to be donated to science and studied by the world’s leading medical experts.Report

  5. Avatar Kazzy says:

    Chris,

    In what way was Camby’s career shaped by luck? Injuries? I think the Camby we saw when healthy was about what we could have expected from him. He is a guy who is underrated by traditional box score stats.Report

  6. Avatar Steve says:

    2004 – I don’t like JR Smith being on the starting 5. I’d take Tony Allen over him as a close proxy. Kevin Martin’s been much better or Iggy could be used at the 2 and Deng at the 3. JR’s a pretty major downgrade from either of those options. He basically has had one good season and mostly been on mediocre teams (one Nuggets and one Knicks team). Martin was on mediocre teams but had very good seasons if there must be a good stats bad team player. I’d rather find a way to put Deng and Iggy on as that’s a monster defensive team on the perimeter.

    2006 – Lowry probably has passed Rondo after this season, but Rondo had a really good prime. It probably wouldn’t be close without injuries involved though.Report

  7. Avatar Kazzy says:

    Steve,

    A strong case could be made for Allen over Smith. I couldn’t find evidence of Iggy playing the 2 for any extended period so even though he probably could do it, I was trying to stay relatively true to what these guys have already done.

    I tended to favor peak over career. If we are looking at a one-game or similar style tournament, we don’t care how long you hung on for; we’re assuming you’re at your best.Report

  8. Avatar Kazzy says:

    Tod Kelly,

    I couldn’t find a record of Evans playing the 3.Report