The Armchair Federal Reserve Governor
Here is most of what is above the fold of a recent Vox article:
9 reasons the Fed made a mistake today
Let’s see what deductions we can make if we take the article at face value.
- There are nine reasons that the Federal Reserve Board should have done something it didn’t. The Fed missed all nine. There is no support for the action the Fed chose. The Fed, where economics PhDs cavort as if they were Playmates at the Hefner estate, chose a completely unsupported action over the correct, well-supported one.
- Despite the formidable tasks of beating the Fed at a game it has been playing for 101 years with a blank check for a budget, Vox also managed to figure out the optimal lane in which you should drive and how society judges its pop artists.
Such commentators claim for themselves something just short of omniscience. Anyone who claims to know contemporaneously in which direction the Fed has erred has a truly Homeric ego even if they seem otherwise circumspect.
Please don’t take this to be criticism of Vox alone. There is no infographic big enough to fit all the smart people with overinflated senses of their own competence. Also, do not question the good intent of any of these writers. Such articles are written by earnest, kind-hearted souls. They are smart enough to plot unemployment rates on a chart and do a bit of analysis, but too self-assured to question whether others better trained, equipped, incentivized, and focused than them might do better than they.
Unless you find yourself on a reserve board somewhere, it is unlikely that you have done the work necessary to reliably beat the Federal Reserve at its own, full-time gig.
Related: The Armchair CEO