Playoff Rankings!
Here are my final NFL power rankings of the regular season, focusing just on those teams that are making the playoffs. Because, honestly, does anyone really care where the Tampa Bay Bucs rank?
- Seattle Seahawks: The best and most complete team in football. Add on top the strongest home field advantage among teams that will host a game and they have to be the favorite.
- Denver Broncos: I don’t buy all the cold weather talk. The Broncos are a historically great offense with a phenomenal QB playing out of his mind right now.
- San Francisco 49ers: A stout defense and they are peaking at the right time. They play well on the road, which they’ll need to as a wild card team.
- Carolina Panthers: The defense is for real and they’ve beat a lot of good teams. They’re legit contenders for the title.
- Philadelphia Eagles: I know, I know… I’m a homer. But when they’re good, they’re REALLY good. And their road to the conference championship shapes up nicely: New Orleans at home and, if they win, a trip to Carolina for a team that has fared well on the road this year.
- New England Patriots: They pull out wins it seems like they shouldn’t. But they might have to do that three times in the row — twice away from home — and I don’t see that happening.
- Cincinnati Bengals: Had they gotten the #2 seed, they’d be much higher on this list. They’re a very different team on the road versus at home. That will likely be their downfall.
- Indianapolis Colts: A bit of a confounding team. They’ve beat some of the best teams in the league but have a bunch of bad losses. They’ve looked better as of late and get a home game in the first round.
- Kansas City Chiefs: They’ve been a different team in the second half of the year. Are they paper tigers? They’re better than they’ve looked recently, but not good enough to go all the way.
- Green Bay Packers: Rodgers being back makes this a different team, but I’m still not sure they’re good enough on defense. Their matchup against the 49ers could spell trouble.
- New Orleans Saints: They just aren’t the same team outside of the Super Dome. Should weather become a factor, they’re likely toast.
- San Diego Chargers: This was probably the most talented team involved in the scrum at the bottom of the AFC, but they still don’t compare to the elite contenders. Too inconsistent and too many mistakes.
You think far too highly of your Iggles, my man. They’re on balance as strong as my Packers and for a similar reason: lots and lots of weight on the QB’s shoulders.
I agree that the strongest teams in the NFC are Seattle and San Francisco and you are right to point out that Carolina’s defense is not to be underestimated. In the AFC, there is Denver and also five underdogs, two of which will lose to Denver directly and the others who will lose to one another. It is known.
All that said, in a forced-choice situation, wouldn’t you rather have a competent but lucky team than one that’s good but loses a lot of breaks? They play ’em on the field for a reason and I’m looking forward to SF @ GB!Report
Pound for pound, the Eagles and Packers are probably relatively close. But the Eagles lining up to play New Orleans at home and then Carolina on the road is MUCH more favorable than the Packers lining up to play the Niners at home and Seattle on the road. I probably should have clarified that these rankings are more about likelihood to win the Lombardi than they are about relative strength.Report
The retro-Patriots are going to be tough. Today, the quick kick. Next time, the Notre Dame Box and the flying wedge!Report
They also just allowed Thad Lewis to throw for 250 yards and a 95.0 QB rating. I don’t see any way that they can win in Denver against Evil Manning, whose deal with the Devil is, unlike Tom Brady’s, entirely focused on football. I’d give any AFC team in the playoffs save the Chargers at least even odds to beat the Patriots in Foxboro.Report
Chokey McChokerson will make a strong showing until the 3rd quarter.Report
The Broncos success may come down to offensive left tackle Chris Clark. When he plays well, Manning has time to pick apart most any defense. When Clark has an off day, not so much. Overall, and for a player who wasn’t even projected as a starter, Clark has done an outstanding job for the Broncos.Report
Yeah, losing Clady was a big, big hit for the Broncos. Bigger than losing Von Miller.Report
I’d flip the 9ers and the Panthers, I think – they’re very similar teams but under no circumstances other than a road game in Seattle would I bet against Riverboat Ron at this point, and I trust Cam Newton more than I trust Colin Kaepernick. I’d probably knock the Eagles down a spot and bump the Bengals up to fifth, with the Patriots flipping with the Colts.
I’d also flip the Saints and the Packers; as bad as the Saints are on the road, I like their defense a lot more than the Packers under any conditions. I think they could give Foles more trouble than any other defense he’s faced to date, allowing the Saints to win even if Brees throws a couple of picks himself. Except for the Patriots game, which they really should have won, their road losses have all been to teams with tough defenses, which the Eagles don’t possess.Report
Cinci was 8-0 at home and just 3-5 on the road. I struggle to see them winning a big game on the road, especially with Dalton as erratic as he is. The Geno Atkins injury is also underplayed given how important he was to their defense.
If I had to break this into tiers, I’d probably have 1-4, then 5-9, then 10-12, with bigger gaps between the tiers than within them.
I don’t see the Saints able to stop the Eagles running attack. They might give Foles some fits… and his tendency to hold onto the ball too long (a big part of his “miraculous” interception run) will play into that… but if they stay committed to the run I can see McCoy having a huge day.Report
I agree that McCoy is the big X-factor, which is why I think the Eagles deserve to be favored; I just think that they’re slightly more vulnerable to losing to the Saints than the 49ers are to losing to the Packers (even if the 49ers are on the road). I think if the Saints beat the Eagles, it wouldn’t shock me if they upset the Panthers (though I’d still pick the Panthers straight up in that game), since they only lost by 4 last time in Carolina. By contrast, I would give the Packers basically no chance against Seattle.Report
You’re probably right. Saints should probably be ahead of the Pack.Report
Also – I completely agree with your tiers.Report
I note that the Colts and the Eagles are 2.5 point favorites at home, and the Niners are 2.5 point favorites on the road. The Bengals are 6.5 point favorites at home. Of course, these numbers are not quite predictions but rather a reflection of the conventional wisdom.Report
FWIW, here are Football Outsiders odds for each team winning the Super Bowl:
1. Seattle – 24.9%
2. Denver – 20.2%
3. New England – 14.7%
4. Carolina – 14.5%
5. Philly – 6.5%
6. Cinci – 4.7%
7. SF – 3.5%
8. KC – 3.4%
9. NO – 2.8%
10. GB – 2.3%
11. SD – 1.8%
12. Indy – .6%
This does account for the draw and home field advantage, which I think is why they have SF as low as they do. They disagree with me majorly on them, NE, and Indy; we’re pretty close on all the rest (including Philly! Wahoo!).Report
That seems way too low for Indy, which has a home game in the first round, and is actually a slight favorite in that game according to Vegas.
To be honest, I’ve soured quite a bit on Football Outsiders the last few years, ever since they had statistics purporting to show that the Bills’ 4-1 start in 2011 wasn’t a fluke. I believed them, and was quickly proven wrong, as the Bills promptly went on a 7 game losing streak.Report
I’d put the Broncos over the Seahawks. The ‘Hawks may be the most complete team in football and their home crowd is notorious, but not only did the Broncos score 189 more points than Seattle this season, they scored 31 more touchdowns.
That alone should give Denver the top spot.Report
Seattle gave up 168 fewer points. Their point differentials yield only a 21 point edge for Denver, which is a better gauge than just one of those numbers in isolation.
Really, Seattle and Denver are 1 and 1a. Gun to my head, I’d pick Seattle. But I’d be hardpressed to argue stringently against someone going the other way.Report
And I can admit I want the Broncos in the top spot not only because I think they deserve it, but also because I’m a lifelong fan.
For what it’s worth, I also think Seattle had an easier schedule. The 49ers are no joke, and somehow Arizona managed to pull out a winning season including a win over the ‘Hawks. But Seattle also played the Texans, the Titans, the Bucs, the Vikings, the Giants, and the Falcons, six relatively weak teams with losing records.
They didn’t have to play the Chiefs, the Chargers, or the Patriots, all play-off teams.
Also, the Broncos scored 40 points or more five times this season, three times with scores of 50 points or more. And they scored 20 points or more in every single game.
The Seahawks have no games with 50 or more points, two games with 40 or more points, and five games where they were held to 20 points or less.
Gun to my head, I’d pick Seattle too…..but only because there’s a gun to my head.
(And thus ends my exercise in stat geekdom.)Report
But those points are of diminished value. While Denver didn’t run up the score in the way that the ’07 Pats did (I saw a stat that said the Pats scored twice as many points that year when up by 17 than the Broncos did this year, though part of that is a reflection of the different defenses each team had), I don’t know how important it was that they scored 50+ against my Eagles when the game was over before halftime.
And you still seem to be focusing on just one side of the ball. Seattle might not have scored 40 or 50 points in any game, but they did hold 7 teams to 10 points or fewer… a remarkable achievement during a year in which (I think) the record for total points per game was set.
If Seattle and Denver played each other 100 times, I think there would be multiple games wherein Seattle scored 40+ points. I think there would be far fewer in which Denver allowed 10 or fewer. Seattle is better on offense than Denver is on defense.Report
“Seattle is better on offense than Denver is on defense.”
Fair enough. But Denver’s offense is better than Seattle’s offense by, oh, I don’t know an entire season of touchdowns for a lesser team.
I mean, this isn’t a big deal, but the Broncos scored more points this season than any team in history. Manning threw for more touchdowns than anyone. He passed for more yards than anyone ever.
No doubt, the ‘Hawks are a good team, but a better team than the one that has the most dominant offense in the history of the league? I guess we’ll find out at the Super Bowl! hahaReport