Way Too Fishing Early, 2016 Democratic Primary Edition
by Russell M.
So I got bored at work and decided to turn my mind towards the next, next election because… well because I have no soul at this point, I think. Seriously, writing about 2016 right now is really really stupid because no-one (not even gay math wizard Nate Silver) knows how 2014 is going to turn out. As this is just my thoughts and play-by-play of the future, I welcome any and all comments, quibbles, arguments, and your thoughts on my thoughts fellow league members.
First off I will sort out the contenders into 4 tiers.
Tier 1: Hers if she wants it.
Hillary Clinton: Pros: Four years as Secretary of State with mainly positive press has made Hillz the presumptive favorite in my mind. If she declares then the field will more or less clear as all of the money goes to her. Has the Big Dog in her back pocket. Cons: Still a Clinton, her announcement will quintuple Drudge’s daily hits, because if anyone is willing to misrepresent, fabricate, and out and out lie about the Clinton’s it is Matty Drudge. Has the Big Dogs baggage. If you loved the 90’s Clinton hate fest prepare to feast once she announces.
Tier 2: Praying Hillary does not run caucus
VP Joe Biden: With 8 years as VPOTUS and his own long career of public service (plus his hulk smash of Paul Ryan in the VP debate) makes Old-Handsome Joe the favorite should Hillary decide she does not wish to join the cluster-frack again. Add in the support from the “Obama Machine” (OFA and the president himself) I believe Joe will roll the non Hillz field. He has always been better at playing “just folks” then any other eligible democrat I can think of.
Governor Andrew Cuomo: Runs a large state and has a track record of stabbing his more liberal coalition members in the back (see NY state senate elections of 2012, where he mostly sat out.) Pros: Loved by Wall St. money, has good hair and able to speak in complete sentences. Has a mostly NY liberal record. Cons: Some members of the party hate backstabbing and deal-making with republicans. Has not been a BFF to labor. Loved by Wall St.
Tier 3: Outside looking in gang
Senator Liz Warren: Pros: Has name recognition, liberal record, foe of big banks and other titans of finance. Generates My Little Pony levels of fandom from most of the base. Cons: The big money largely hates her with the fiery passion of a thousand suns. Will be called a socialist about 10 million times because she is more Liberal than the President. Is a Woman (still think that’s going to be an issue).
Martin O’Malley & Deval Patrick: Pros: Both run what appear to be competent state governments, have liberal records, and both had speaking spots at the 2012 convention (where Patrick killed O’Malley, by the way). Cons: Little name recognition, both are NE liberals who may not play in the rest of the country. I give Patrick a slight edge over O’Malley due to the convention speeches – which is the only time I can recall them sharing the same space and audience.
Tier 4: Dark-horses
Brian Schweitzer: Pros: Moderate to conservative Governor of Montana, former and Current business man, has a lot of appeal to moderate voters of both parties, has won two elections in the reddest of red states. Cons: Has shown little intrest in running for higher office, hates D.C with fiery passion. Not a lot of name recognition outside of MT. Pisses of the liberal base something fierce from time to time.
Governor John Hickenlooper: Pros: Former businessman, has signed legislation that liberals like (civil unions, gun control) and is seemingly okay with pot legalization. Cons: John who?
Governor Jerry Brown: Pros: Runs the largest state in the union. Has shown an ability to work within and without the system to pass his agenda. If California is still showing job-growth and a balanced budget in 2015, Gov. Moonbeam’s light may shine bright enough to consider running. Cons: Older then dirt. Is nicknamed moonbeam. Is very liberal. Should have ran in 92.
Both of the Brothers Castro: Because they are photogenic, come from Texas, and are hispanic/latino/whatever, which does factor in. From their TV appearances and speeches that I have seen, both are smooth on the stump. Cons: The name Castro, lack of big money, doubtful they could carry their own state in the general.
With that I end the first installment of Way Too Fishing Early, 2016 edition. When this was in my head it was a much shorter article, but expanded due to dark matter. Next up we will run through some possibilities for how the race might shape up.
And if you think I missed anybody feel free to hit me up in the comments.