Election Day Jukebox And Open Thread

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Jaybird

Jaybird is Birdmojo on Xbox Live and Jaybirdmojo on Playstation's network. He's been playing consoles since the Atari 2600 and it was Zork that taught him how to touch-type. If you've got a song for Wednesday, a commercial for Saturday, a recommendation for Tuesday, an essay for Monday, or, heck, just a handful a questions, fire off an email to AskJaybird-at-gmail.com

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144 Responses

  1. Avatar Pat Cahalan
    Ignored
    says:

    We still have the inkblot. I expect my voting experience to be pretty unremarkable.

    My music selection for the day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBf1e6WWWA0&feature=shareReport

  2. Avatar Zack
    Ignored
    says:

    In all honesty, I don’t thin it makes a lick of difference
    who wins today’s establishment Dog & Pony showReport

  3. Avatar Plinko
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    says:

    I was planning to do early voting Friday before I flew out but I got stuck at work too long and couldn’t make it – so I’m watching from afar.Report

  4. Avatar Jason Kuznicki
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    says:

    I am predicting that same-sex marriage will not pass in any state.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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      says:

      Yeesh, expect the worst so all your surprises are pleasant no? I agree SSM underperforms its polling but some of these voting states have really really good numbers for SSM (not mine, MN I fear could pass this loathsome ammendment).Report

      • Avatar Michael Drew in reply to North
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        says:

        Sucks, too. Haven’t really done my part here, either, other than voting of course…Report

        • Avatar North in reply to Michael Drew
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          says:

          Took a half day from work canvassing. Spirits were high but I’m in Minneapolis proper so of course SSM is popular here. So far looks like the Mainers at least are poised to bust Maggie’s unbroken winning streak on popular SSM referenda. That’ll gall her a lot I imagine.Report

      • Avatar zic in reply to North
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        says:

        The Equality Maine volunteers in Maine have been amazing this year.

        I want to dance at my brother’s wedding.

        North, if it passes, and I believe it will, we’d welcome you here in ME. Got a lot in common with MN, but the shore’s salt water, the hills are bigger, and the farmland’s more affordable. (Husband’s from MN.)Report

        • Avatar North in reply to zic
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          says:

          I got married across the Fundy in Nova Scotia a couple years back now Zic. Maybe I’ll try and sell the husband on a little Maine American wedding outing. Hmm maybe around lobster season…. mmmm yes… that sounds pretty good *tents fingers*.Report

    • Avatar Michelle in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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      says:

      I hope you’re wrong. I think it has a decent shot at passing in Washington and Maine.Report

    • Avatar James Vonder Haar in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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      says:

      I hope you’re wrong; I’m visiting Seattle right now. Hoping for some jubilation in the gay bars this evening!Report

    • Avatar Mike Schilling in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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      says:

      You are quite incorrect about both your home state and Doc’s. I’m very happy for both of you and your Better Halfs.Report

      • Avatar Jason Kuznicki in reply to Mike Schilling
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        says:

        I will happily admit that I was wrong. The case for pessimism seemed strong, particularly after California, and I’ve been pessimistic for a reason that no one else seems to accept as a factor, namely that existing laws are self-normalizing. When something’s on the books, it’s the law, and “being a law” generates a constituency all by itself.

        That seems to be holding less and less, at least in this case.Report

        • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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          says:

          Liberty actually didn’t do *TOO* bad last night. Marriage Equality, first and foremost indicates a tipping point… for example, I don’t think that Prop 8 would have passed in California had it been on the ballot yesterday.

          Not to trivialize that big achievement by comparing it to something as silly as recreational MJ, but two out of three states legalized recreational MJ as well which is a huge blow to the WOD.

          There were advancements made by the states and they’re pointed in a good direction. There’s reason to believe that the Feds won’t get in the way on Marriage. Which ain’t nothin’.Report

          • Avatar Jason Kuznicki in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            Recreational MJ is huge. It may prove to be the biggest single development from last night.

            Same-sex marriage is great, of course, but not too many people are getting killed or imprisoned over it. If you want to work for liberty, work for legalizing pot. The time is clearly right, and the abuses in the name of the Drug War have been atrocious.Report

          • Avatar North in reply to Jaybird
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            says:

            I’m happy to say it looks like this was an excellent libertarian election. SSM won, Pot won, Garry Johnson got a share of the vote bigger than the margin of victory between the D’s and R’s in Florida and the dominant meme’s on the right just got kicked in the balls.

            Surely now either the Dems who’ve been dealt a real solid by libertarian and liberaltarian minded voters or the GOP who’re desperately in need of an ideology overhaul will give libertarianism another look?Report

            • Avatar Jaybird in reply to North
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              says:

              Here’s hoping they say “they didn’t vote for Romney” rather than “they didn’t vote for Obama” but I think that the Libertarians Should Be Considered Republicans In Spirit meme was shaken a little last night… maybe it’ll go away eventually.Report

  5. Avatar Ramblin' Rod
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    says:

    I voted early a couple weeks ago. My wife discovered that she wasn’t registered, or to be more precise, her registration reflected an address from several years ago, so all she could do was a provisional that is unlikely to be counted at all. This was despite voting in 2008, so there’s that.

    Overall a disappointing process. I had exactly zero down-ballot choices, as in everyone on the ballot was a Republican running un-opposed. US Rep, State Senator and Rep, County Commissioners–the whole lot of them. A Constitutional Amendment to alter the property tax treatment of watercraft, like I give a flying-F one way or the other. And a measure to basically continue a local sales tax that was originally for some other purpose and now is to go for a new municipal pool (voted yes, basically for the missus since she couldn’t vote. See Above.)

    A more or less pointless endeavor, but hey! I exercised my franchise as a citizen! Woo-Hoo!Report

  6. Avatar Chris
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    says:

    I like this version (and video) of “Handlebars” better:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HLUX0y4EptA

    The difference is subtle, I know, but the intensity is different.

    Also, “Why?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXhbSmL3Liw

    Seems appropriate given a subthread on one of the other election posts yesterday.Report

    • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Chris
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      says:

      I like that version of the song better too… but when this album first came out, I was monumentally irritated with it because they’re wearing bandanas Sandinista-style on the front of the album and it’s obviously intended as a shotgun blast against the Bush Administration. “WE’RE EMULATING SANDINISTAS NOW!”, I’m sure you can imagine me yelling in the car.

      Then, you know, I listened to the song a handful of times and, seriously, it’s a good song.

      I kinda like this video, though, because the shotgun blast was a hair broad in scope and, in modern circumstances, one notices aesthetic choices that the artists now probably regret having made.

      And that sort of thing always tickles me pink.Report

  7. Avatar bookdragon
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    says:

    We voted just after 7am, when the pols opened. Line out the door, but only half as long as I recall from 2008 when it wrapped around the parking lot.

    Electronic machine, same we’ve had since I moved here 15 years ago. We always take the kids. My son went into the booth with me and got to press the lit up ‘cast my ballot’ button for me. That is, after carefully checking to be sure I really had voted for Obama and Casey – DS currently wants to be a field biologist for the WWF when he grows up and is less than impressed with GOP attitudes toward endangered species and climate change. 😉Report

    • Avatar Kim in reply to bookdragon
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      says:

      Wait, you’re in PA?

      3% unsecured loan — http://www.keystonehelp.com/

      Me, I voted for free jobs. (yes, airsealing is “nearly” free, as it does cost some amount of a job for the natural gas folks, of course…)

      Can you convince your son to head up north and shoot some deer? They’re eating the entire forest up there…Report

      • Avatar bookdragon in reply to Kim
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        says:

        Yep. We didn’t get those loans to do it, but we upgraded our furnace for more efficiency a couple years ago, added good windows, etc. DS still wants to add solar, but I’ve been buying him little wind project kits to prove that that makes more sense for where we live. (Hubby and I are both engineers – our kids will either be geeks or become art history majors to rebel).

        DS is 8 and just learning to use a bow, so he wouldn’t be much help with deer. Our greyhounds, otoh, have kept our garden and foliage pretty safe. 😉Report

        • Avatar Kim in reply to bookdragon
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          says:

          Have you had an energy auditor by? Our house has zero insulation in the walls. Absolutely none. This work is gonna be EASY! (doesn’t mean we’re doing it ourselves, of course).

          Where in PA you at? (I’m in Squirrel Hill, Pittsburgh)Report

          • Avatar bookdragon in reply to Kim
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            says:

            We’re in a ~50 yr old house – well insulated to begin with, but we added in the attic.

            I’m at the opposite end of PA, midway between Philly and Allentown. But I was born in Pittsburgh – both of my parents grew up in Carrick.Report

  8. Avatar Alan Scott
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    says:

    The lady that works the graveyard shift on monday nights requested the day off for some reason. Which means I got off work at 6am. Killed an hour shopping and listening to NPR, and showed up just in time for the polls to open at 7. Filled out my ballot (optical scan paper) and went to drop it in the box, when I got to see something really cool.

    Because I was casting the very first ballot of the day, the poll worker opened up the box and demonstrated to my satisfaction that it was empty, before closing and sealing it.Report

  9. Avatar Michael Cain
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    says:

    Voted by mail a couple of weeks ago. About 70% of active registered voters in Colorado are now on the permanent mail-in ballot list, so exit polling is probably meaningless. I walked by the early voting station at the local library a couple of times while it was open last week; it was nearly deserted.Report

  10. Avatar Jaybird
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    says:

    Those of you who are familiar with the Redskins Rule should hunker down. (Those of you who are not familiar with it should know that there is a surprisingly high correlation between the winner of the last Redskins home game before the election and the winner of the election.)

    Kazzy just pointed this article out to me… and here’s the first paragraph:

    The NFL said Monday that a 30-yard touchdown run by Carolina Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams against the Washington Redskins should not have counted because of an inadvertent whistle.Report

  11. Avatar Boegiboe
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    says:

    Arrived at my Maryland polling place a bit after 8am with 3-year-old Alice in tow. At first she was super excited to vote. We talked about the literature we were handed; how the green paper with the “7” on it means “Go 7” and the red paper with a “7” means “Stop 7.” An hour later the line allowed us to enter the building, and we had already experienced our first “I don’t wanna vote, Papa.” I explained that we needed to vote for a certain thing (I’m on my break at work, so I can make this comment but can’t even kinda endorse a stance.) She had thought briefly about that, and then was on board again. (“On board” is appropriate, because Alice often thought we were going to “boat,” not “vote.”)

    The hour and a half wait inside with no food or water might have destroyed her, but she managed to hold it more or less together by running around my legs and making-believe with the pamphlets. She even was asking to go to the booths, so there wasn’t ever any dragging her in the opposite direction of where she’s decided to go. What did destroy her, though, was when we actually got to the voting booth, it was in view of the church’s kitchen. “Restaurant! I wanna go to the restaurant! I’m HUNGRY!!” So, as I cast my votes, she began to scream and cry. At one point she began swatting the power cord hanging up along the side of the machines. A headline about some idiot who brought his 3-year-old to a voting center crashing the entire system flashed before my eyes, and I used The Voice to put a stop to that. (This is why parents of screaming children don’t always respond with The Voice–sometimes it is needed to avert actual disaster.)

    I had looked forward to Alice helping in some way, but we were beyond that. We were all the way down to “Papa’s leaving now” and walking away from the screaming tot in a room full of annoyed people, because had I grabbed her, she still could have grabbed the power cord. (I actually physically shuddered just now thinking about it.) Alice eventually perceived the rest of her life spent “voting” and came running after me, screaming even louder. I would have felt thoroughly awful about the whole thing if Alice hadn’t been mostly a source of amusement for my fellow voters in the 2 hours leading up to the end. As I left with my sobbing daughter, an elderly lady said “She really did do well.” She knew just what I needed to hear.Report

    • Avatar Jaybird in reply to Boegiboe
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      says:

      “I thought you said we were going to boat.”

      Man. That’s one of those things that when you find out that we’re just going to be standing in line at a grownup place for grownup stuff and there aren’t even any toys or games?

      For what it’s worth, it sounds like you did a great job wrangling. I can totally see why Alice saw that as a letdown, though.Report

    • Avatar Glyph in reply to Boegiboe
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      says:

      That’s funny, my 3-yr old asked me where my wife was when he got up (she went right before polls opened) and I had a devil of a time getting him to grasp that she went to ‘Vote’, not ‘Boat’ (“but *I* want to go to the water too!”). We also tried to explain what a “President” is.

      There were only 6 ahead of her when the poll opened. I went when she got home, and walked right in, no wait.Report

      • Avatar James Hanley in reply to Glyph
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        says:

        I wanted to go boat, too, but somehow found myself in the cow barn at the fairgrounds to vote. I understand how disappointed your poor kids are.

        FWIW, the advantage of living in small town America is that it took me less than ten minutes to vote, and that includes having to do it twice because I messed up my first ballot. Suck it, city slickers!Report

    • Avatar MikeSchilling in reply to Boegiboe
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      says:

      A 2-hour wait to vote? That’s horrifying. The only time I’ve ever spent more than 15 minutes in a polling place is when I volunteered to work there the whole day.Report

      • Avatar Jason Kuznicki in reply to MikeSchilling
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        says:

        I voted (same polling place of course) and had a similar wait time. We were apparently in line simultaneously for part of that.

        I attribute the long wait to lots of recent residential construction around our precinct. They really ought to enlarge the facilities or break it into two.Report

        • Avatar Mike Schilling in reply to Jason Kuznicki
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          says:

          And the poll-closing was delayed at least 2 hours in Virginia to let people already in line vote. There’s no excuse for that, and it has to get fixed. (Me? In and out in five minutes, and that long only because I stopped to chat with the poll workers.)Report

    • Avatar Kim in reply to Boegiboe
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      says:

      there speaks a woman who’s been there before.
      (one does ask why people dont’ have some sort of disorganized daycare going on…)Report

    • Avatar North in reply to Boegiboe
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      says:

      Alice sounds enormously precious. I can see the headlines now: “toddler crashes federal election.Cato’s Jason Kuznicki, Libertarian parent is quoted “I couldn’t be more proud!”Report

  12. Avatar Fish
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    says:

    Voted this morning (ink blot) at the Catholic Church up in the Forest. I was right in and out after dropping the boys off at school. No personhood or marriage items on the agenda this time around, but the ubiquitous marijuana measure was there, along with the sheriff and the transit authority asking for more money (“no” to the sheriff, “yes” to the rta. A few years ago we said “no” to the new criminal justice building but the county “found” the money to build it anyway, so screw those guys). Sixteen candidates for president on the ballot!Report

  13. Avatar KatherineMW
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    says:

    Not an American, but I have a collection of ballot measures I’ll be watching very closely. Fingers crossed for “yes” on California Prop 34 (abolish death penalty) and Prop 36 (scale back three-strikes law), “no” on Prop. 37 (label GMOs; shows that conservatives aren’t the only ones who can prefer superstition above science), “yes” on at least one recreational marijuana use referendum (on the ballot in Washington, Oregon and Colorado), “yes” on Florida Amendment 6 (restricting abortion) and “no” on Massachusetts Question 2 (euthanasia). And, on Russell and North’s behalfs, “yes” on Maine, Maryland and Washington allowing same-sex marriage and “no” on Minnesota passing an amendment against it.

    Why yes, I do refuse to be put in a neat ideological box.Report

  14. Avatar Kim
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    says:

    About zero wait, courtesy of going in after 9am. Cost: $20 or so (vacation time).
    Remember, I live in one of the few states with no early voting. Voting during the day is a very nice thing to do. (nearly running over a physics prof while doing so, however, is not).Report

  15. Avatar Scott
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    says:

    Foreign monitors amazed US doesn’t require ID to vote

    Wow and all this time dems keep bleating about voter suppression.

    http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/06/foreign_election_officials_amazed_by_trust_based_us_voting_systemReport

    • Avatar Tom Van Dyke in reply to Scott
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      says:

      Scott. Dude. @ 9:43, the time of your post, a clean Obama win is shaping up, although that might change. But either way, don’t be a Sore Loserman in advance. Let it play out.Report

      • Avatar Ramblin' Rod in reply to Tom Van Dyke
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        says:

        Sincere thanks for that, Tom. I was just having supper, eating dessert, in a truck stop and (of course) Fox News was on and the guy next to me was glued to the early results. He made some comment about Obama and I turned to him and said, “Hey, I lived through eight years of Bush, you can handle another four of Obama.” Shit, he got all pissed; I thought he was going to hit me. I was like, “Whoa! I just want to finish my ice cream and get out of here.”

        You’re not my enemy. We just disagree about some stuff, you know?

        Anyway, I’m following NPR online and right now they’re at Romney 160, Obama 148 but that doesn’t include the west coast with Cali’s 55, so I think you’re right. It’s probably going to be O with about 300 E.C.; pretty much what the oddsmaker’s expected.Report

        • Avatar Tom Van Dyke in reply to Ramblin' Rod
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          says:

          Cheers, Rod. My quiet prediction [friends] has been that the economy will grow under either man. Time of uncertainty is over, time for all of us to get off our hands and do our American thing instead of trying to outsmart the government and the market.

          Let’s surprise ourselves! 😉Report

      • Avatar Burt Likko in reply to Tom Van Dyke
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        says:

        Props for that sentiment., Mr. TVD. Democracy depends upon the losing side buying in to the legitimacy of the process sufficiently to live with the result. Roughly half of us will have to find a way to accept a President we didn’t vote for. Crying “Cheaters!” before the results are even in won’t help that happen.Report

        • Avatar Tom Van Dyke in reply to Burt Likko
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          says:

          Aye, friend Likko. At some point in all our lives, we will be outvoted. Welcome to civilization.Report

        • Avatar Scott in reply to Burt Likko
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          says:

          Burt:

          I’m not saying Barry and his ilk are cheaters. No, I’m just pointing out that even foreigners are amazed the US doesn’t require voters to have ID. If they think it is necessary I really wonder why Dems keep bleating about it?Report

          • Avatar North in reply to Scott
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            says:

            Well if you want to imitate the foreigners you’d have to have a national ID card too Scott, oh and universal healthcare.Report

            • Avatar Scott in reply to North
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              says:

              North:

              So you are saying if we do this one thing we have to do everything that foreigners do? We can pick and choose what we adopt from others, so I fail to see the logic in your statement but I’m sure it makes sense to you.Report

              • Avatar North in reply to Scott
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                says:

                Scott, the healthcare bit was a dig but the national ID wasn’t. All the nations you’re citing, every single one, has a national ID card of some sort and their electoral systems are built on those. I’d note also that the vast majority of those nations you’re pointing to as en example also have their federal elections managed by non-politician bureaucrats or independent agencies.

                Those things, which I presume you’d not be very in favor of, are the basis for those countries ID laws.Report

          • Avatar DRS in reply to Scott
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            says:

            Do you really wonder? Incredible. Maybe you might want to go back through various threads and read all the reasons people laid out against the idea. There was a lot of debate on this site, I remember that.Report

          • Avatar Tom Van Dyke in reply to Scott
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            says:

            Scott. Voter ID is a good point. Perhaps some other time, not tonight.

            BTW—while I waited in line to vote at my precinct, I observed Election Official Mrs. TVD patiently explain to a young gal who spoke in a delightfully accented English that the records showed that she had been mailed an absentee ballot.

            Unless you surrender that physical absentee ballot to your kind election official right here right now, you cannot vote via the regular ballot right now, although you may cast a “provisional” [subject to future examination] ballot right now.

            I didn’t hear the rest, but youngblood gal just shrugged, and bailed.

            Whatever.Report

          • Avatar Ramblin' Rod in reply to Scott
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            says:

            What North said. Plus it depends a lot on implementation. Kansas has a “strict” voter ID law, but the list of items that counts as ID is fairly liberal, including things like a college ID, CCW card, and half-dozen other items so there is much less of an issue wrt disparate impact on minorities and other folks likely to vote Dem. Maybe it’s because we’re so damn Red at the moment that they don’t care if the loyal opposition casts their cute little ballots in token protest.Report

            • Avatar Morat20 in reply to Ramblin' Rod
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              says:

              Given in-person ballot fraud has got to be the stupidest method of attempting to steal an election (as well as the most pointless), I’ve never really understood why anyone was seriously upset about it.

              Well, I understand how it would work as casual and pervasive voter suppression. I mean the people who get all upset thinking there’s nefarious schemes to steal elections that can be stopped by requiring a specific photo ID.

              You want to steal an election, you have to rig the count or the machines. Having a bunch of people voting more than once, or voting as other people? It’s like trying to steal enough money to buy a private jet by lurking around the bank tellers and trying to scoop up dropped change.Report

            • Avatar Kim in reply to Ramblin' Rod
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              says:

              We had a decent voter Id — had to prove residency, but as little as a utility bill would do it. Now, the nursing homes can issue anyone an id, but the local government can’t issue anyone one.Report

  16. Avatar North
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    says:

    Well we have our first Lesbian US Senator. I’m chuffed with that and it doesn’t look like Ryan is going to carry his home state. That’s going to be a bitter pill, and a potentially fatal one if Ohio goes blue. Then again Mitt is fighting for his life in Virginia and Florida right now to which I can only say ouch.Report

  17. Avatar DRS
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    says:

    And it’s looking good for SSM in Maine, which I believe is the state Russell lives in (?).Report

    • Avatar North in reply to DRS
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      says:

      It truly is *knocks on wood* and yes he does. If only one of the four states pass it Maine would be the one I’d pick. I don’t have kids and the Doc could use it more.

      The one consolation in this is that we only need to win one of the four contests and the entire “SSM has never won the popular vote” meme dies in screaming agony. That digging sound you’ll hear will be the SSM opponents frantically moving the goalposts back again.Report

      • Avatar James Hanley in reply to North
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        says:

        Agreed. That’s one of the reasons it really matters. But there aren’t any good goalposts to fall back to. With the demographics, it’s all a matter of time.Report

        • Avatar North in reply to James Hanley
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          says:

          I would assume the new goalpost will be something like “SSM has lost in the overwhelming majority of popular votes.” It’s pretty cobbled and hackney, I agree, but they either have to work with that or fold up NOM and lay Maggie off.

          But yeah, from Civil unions have never passed in court to civil unions have never passed in the legislature to SSM has never succeeded in court to SSM has never succeeded in the legislature to SSM has never won the popular vote all the way down to the feeble “SSM hasn’t won the majority of the popular votes”. That’s one heck of a slide in a decade and change.Report

  18. Avatar Kolohe
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    says:

    I think Allen-Kaine in Virginia is going to go into overtime a la Coleman Franken in Minnesota.Report

  19. Avatar James Hanley
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    says:

    Historic moment: Mitt Romney becomes first presidential candidate to lose two of his three home states.Report

  20. Avatar DRS
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    says:

    George Allen concedes in Virginia; Akin loses in Missouri.Report

  21. Avatar DRS
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    says:

    I predict there’s going to be a lot of wailing and gnashing of Republican teeth over Florida: Romney and Obama are about 40,000 votes apart – and Johnson got 42,000 votes. That’s going to leave a mark somewhere, I think.Report

  22. Avatar James Hanley
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    says:

    Fox has called the election for Obama.

    I am now laughing my ass off at everyone who either predicted a big win for Romney (Michael Barone, Unskewed Polls, and our very own MFarmer) or who planted their flag on the territory of mathematical ignorance to attack Nate Silver’s models (including our very own TVD and George Turner).

    Unfortunately, there is effectively zero chance that any of those folks will reflect on this moment and choose to renounce ignorance. A redoubling of their commitment to their bliss is far more likely.Report

    • Avatar North in reply to James Hanley
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      says:

      Well admissibly Dick Morris is having a very bad night.Report

    • Avatar greginak in reply to James Hanley
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      says:

      Let them fully adjust to the Enlightenment and then they will get right with math.Report

    • Avatar Tod Kelly in reply to James Hanley
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      says:

      I’ve been thinking about this all evening.

      I’m toying with they idea of having us choose, say, 10 high-profile pundits, 5 Dems and 5 Repubs. (Not hosts, like Hannity or O’Donnell, but the “experts” that regularly appear on those show.) What we’d do is keep track of ll of their predictions over some period of time (say, Nov. 5 – the end of the first 100 days) and report on their success regularly here.

      We’d see after a period of time how bad (or well) they actually performed.

      I think it could become a thing.Report

      • Avatar Plinko in reply to Tod Kelly
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        says:

        The pundit scorecards were one of my favorite parts of Brill’s Content.Report

      • Avatar Morat20 in reply to Tod Kelly
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        says:

        That’s somewhat unfair, insofar as most pundits aren’t generally required to be accurate. It’s like shooting fish in a barrel.

        They don’t even have incentives to be right! They have incentives to buck conventional wisdom (the wisdom of crowds, so to speak) because nobody remembers you if you’re right on something everyone else was right on, but they remember that one time you were the lone voice — even though it was a total fluke.

        Although I did enjoy — what was it, Friedman units? That was a fun decade.Report

    • Avatar Kim in reply to James Hanley
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      says:

      Dude. Nate’s friends attack his models, cause they’re fairly pedestrian and conservative.
      (who polls the skype voters??). His model was not the best predictor, as far as I’ve heard (I’ll check again tonight).

      But I leave it to the modelers to argue over which model is better — because they actually use facts to arrive at conclusions, rather than just wishful thinking.Report

  23. Avatar Tom Van Dyke
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    says:

    Dick Morris prediction = kiss of death

    I’d hire him as an NFL prognosticator and make beaucoup bucks betting the other way. King Midas in reverse.Report

  24. Avatar greginak
    Ignored
    says:

    FWIW…Tammy Baldwin, wins and is the first openly gay Senator.Report

    • Avatar Michael Drew in reply to greginak
      Ignored
      says:

      She graduated from the cross-town rival high school to mine about 16 ears before I did. Represented the district I’ve lived in for most of my life for 13 years. I think she might be the first Madison-native U.S. Senator from Wisconsin, I’ll have to check. Keeps the GOP from owning every statewide office in a four-peat of major pick-up GOP victories (including the recall, which to be fair wasn’t a GOP pick-up, but preserved one). Singlehandedly resurrects an ailing Wisconsin Democratic Party candidate bench and proves a Madison liberal (lesbian!?) can win statewide in a more-or-less standard if not Democratic-unfriendly environment (pending further analysis of the electorate) (a proposition whose plausibility even many Democrats in the state openly questioned up to and through Tuesday evening). Thus perhaps significantly altered the future of Wisconsin politics from what had begun to look suddenly quite dim for Democrats with a nascent GOP political machine headed by two national superstars to being likely very competitive at the statewide level for the time being. And to do all that, she had to beat Tommy Thompson himself. (Though who knows perhaps she’ll suck in office and be tossed in 2018. I kinda doubt it though.)

      In other words, beyond the national ID-politics history being made tonight (which I don’t characterize that way to be dismissive, only for shorthand – in fact, I think a prime consequence of the last four years in my political thinking is a significant shift in favor of identity politics, but that’s a discussion for a different time), this is quite a big deal for just plain old Wisconsin politics, given where the trend lines were pointing in the state over the last three years. (Though perhaps it would have been well to just not forget what its behavior was in 2008 and let that be our guide. My gob is nevertheless a bit smacked right at the moment. The hits keep coming for this state it seems. Wish I was home tonight.)Report

      • Avatar Plinko in reply to Michael Drew
        Ignored
        says:

        I wish I were there, too, MD, today more than I have in a while.

        I was in college at Madison when she first ran for the House and I remember the chatter at the time that she was too far out to win the district, even with most of Madison behind her.
        Now she’s won a Senate seat.

        Perhaps most remarkable to me is, not long after all these gut punches from state politics over the last few years, not only did she win, but her sexuality was barely a campaign issue at all. I have to tip my hat former Gov. Thompson for taking a higher road than many on his side would have in the past.Report

      • Avatar North in reply to Michael Drew
        Ignored
        says:

        Truely great news, I’m glad for ya Michael. Heck, I’m glad for us all.Report

      • Avatar Kim in reply to Michael Drew
        Ignored
        says:

        Oddly enough, I also know someone who knew Tammy way back when.
        (that wasn’t so unexpected: the shock was that he hadn’t had sex with her 😉 ).Report

  25. Avatar James Hanley
    Ignored
    says:

    Senate results are interesting. Moralist right-wingers go done in Indiana and Missouri, inadvertently making a statement about where the future of the Republican Pary does mot lie, and in Nebraska Dem. Bob Kerry once again demonstrates Fitzgeralds truism that there are no second acts in America. Like a once respected athlete coming out of retirement to humiliate himself, it’s kind of sad to see, but he’s got no one to blame but himself.Report

    • Avatar BlaiseP in reply to James Hanley
      Ignored
      says:

      The other day, I said the GOP always chooses the worst guy on their slate. Had they chosen anyone but Romney we wouldn’t be looking at four more years of Obama. Anyone else could have attacked Obamacare with conviction.

      While the movers and shakers of the GOP continue to cling to wishful thinking about a return to a past which never was, it’s actually somewhat worse than the un-retired athlete. If we set the Wayback Machine to 2002, we see how Romney actually won his only election. He played competent and moderate. Those movers and shakers forced Romney far to the right, beyond his natural stance as a moderate technocrat.

      Romney became whatever those movers and shakers told him to be. Romney should have hung up on them and gone with his gut, as he did in Massachusetts. Those movers and shakers alienated too many natural conservatives: thing nobody seems to understand about Hispanos, they are what these Family Values types want the rest of us to be. If ever there was a Natural Conservative, it’s these new Hispanic voters. It’s shocking, how Obama ignored that constituency and still got their votes: they would have peeled off for Romney if the GOP wasn’t so rabidly paranoid about Brown People.Report

      • Avatar James Hanley in reply to BlaiseP
        Ignored
        says:

        I’m particularly bitter about Mourdock knocking off Lugar in the Indiana Republican primaries. Lugar’s a goddam American hero. He did as much as any man alive to secure loose nuclear materials after the collapse of the Soviet Union, to keep them out of the hands of terrorists. And half the time he had to fight an uphill battle against public and congressional apathy because”the Cold War is over, hooray, we didn’t need to think about that stuff anymore.” Right.

        But as my mom said when she voted for Mourdock, “What’s Lugar done for us lately?” So they booted him out in favor of a right-wing moralist. And they threw away a Republican Senate seat. Serves them right.

        Oh, Thanksgiving with my fundamentalist cousins going to be fun this year. They’d better not ask me to carve the turkey or I’ll be stuck trying to figure out which one to start with.Report

      • Avatar Morat20 in reply to BlaiseP
        Ignored
        says:

        Well, it’s likely they won’t win the hispanic vote for a generation or more now. Unless hispanics stand out from other demographics, they’ve been voting heavily Democratic for several election cycles now — more and more heavily each cycle.

        Yanking them Republican would require not just a sea change in Republican views on immigration, but time as well. Overnight changes in the Hispanic vote are just…unlikely at this point.Report

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