Electoral College Reversal
Most of the people I talk to about politics who like the idea of repealing the Electoral College and replacing it with a popular vote are Democrats.
I think part of this is lingering unhappiness about the 2000 election, and part is awareness that because there are a bunch of states in the central regions of the country that are relatively sparsely populated, Republican strongholds, and get disproportionate influence over the Electoral College because of the allocation of votes in it.
But then today at lunch I was playing around with 270towin, as I often do these days, and came up with the scenario illustrated above. This scenario seems roughly as plausible to me as any other and in fact is pretty optimistic to Romney — it gives him both Ohio and Florida. And I notice that Nate Silver is estimating a 5.2% chance — better than one in twenty — that Obama wins the Electoral College but loses the popular vote.
Would this reverse the political preferences regarding the Electoral College? Would that outcome make Democrats suddenly great defenders of the institution and Republicans, with their apparently greater (en vox, if not en facto) zeal for amending the Constitution, more willing to undertake movement to a first-past-the-post system?