Winnowing The Long List
About three weeks ago, we came up with twelve names for the “long list” for choices for Mitt Romney’s running mate, finding thirteen names which each had at least something reasonable going for them. Now, it appears that “experience” is the watchword for Team Romney in picking the would-be veep. Our long list, again, was:
- Chris Christie
- Tom Coburn
- Mitch Daniels
- Lindsey Graham
- Nikki Haley
- Bobby Jindal
- John Kasich
- Bob McDonnell
- Rand Paul
- Marco Rubio
- Paul Ryan
- Rick Santorum
Although I do think that Rob Portman probably belongs on the list too. Senator, doubles down on budget and economics, executive as well as legislative experience, and provides a link with the Bush Administration that will make the conservative wing happy. Maybe Portman isn’t the smart money favorite, but I’ve gotta think his horse is in the race. Saying “experience” matters only confirms this for me — Team Romney doesn’t want the Sarah Palin experience, and the signal of “experience” is one that tells us something about Romney’s general election strategy.
If it’s “experience” that matters, I think that shoots Haley and Rubio, otherwise pretty strong choices IMO, off the list, and it has to elevate the odds on Coburn, Graham, Kasich, and McDonnell. It’s also a signal of what Team Romney thinks its strong suit is come November. Adding electoral geography to the list — Romney ought not to need to work particularly hard to get Oklahoma or South Carolina — I think that puts Kasich and McDonnell up near the top.
One of the best candidates I have heard to date wasn’t been mentioned on that list: John Thune.
He’s got conservative bona fides, he’s the guy who beat Daschle, and he’s from a not-bad part of Red America to be from.
I’d probably be looking strongly at him and McDonnell. McDonnell’s resume might be a tad light for what they’re looking for, but what he lacks in longevity he makes up for by fielding more scrutiny than most.Report
Missouri is Southern enough to be Southern, Midwestern enough to be Midwestern… is Roy Blunt tainted by scandal?Report
He’s alive, which has occasionally been a liability in Missouri politics.Report
Isn’t Kasich’s popularity in his home state near the level of VD? That isn’t always a good start for veep candidate. Haley has a lot of Palin in her and may be getting indicted.Report
Kasich’s polls are even [42-42] and Nikki Haley will not be indicted.
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/03/29/obama-kasich-benefit-from-economys-rise.html
http://cjonline.com/opinion/2012-04-16/kathleen-parker-one-twit-all-it-takes
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Kasich’s rating have just improved to the point where his approval caught up to his disapproval. Many of his actions in his first year have been very unpopular.Report
Haley and Jindal are no more eligible to be president than Obama is.Report
Kasich’s polls are even [42-42] and Nikki Haley will not be indicted.
A ringing endorsement!Report
First we dispense with the lies and slanders, Lib60. The Haley indictment was a fabrication. And in the poll where Kasich was 42-42, Obama was down 47-49.
It had him ahead of Romney in Ohio, but today’s a different day—nationally, Gallup has Romney ahead, 47-45.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/221713-romney-leads-obama-in-first-gallup-national-daily-tracking-poll
The game’s afoot, Watson.
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“First we dispense with the lies and slanders,” OHHHH okay so you want to talk about Allen West then. Sorry didn’t realize where you were taking the conversation.Report
Mr. Greg, you were wrong twice. Acknowledge it, before going on to being wrong a third time. Wearin’ me the fuck out, dude.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/11/stupid-reporter-took-communist-allegation-out-of-context-says-allen-wests-campaign/Report
How is that a correction? Al it says is that West was specific about whom he slandered.
Some people are going to quibble about semantics,” [West’s campaign manager] added. “The real point is these people speak for themselves and if you listen to the words of the progressive caucus it’s clear that these people are opponents of capitalism — they oppose free markets, they oppose individual economic freedom — so you can call them whatever you want — whether they’re socialists or marxists or communists.
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I think the point was that it was a one-liner joke, not the McCarthy-esque declaration it got reported as.Report
Then if you make a poor one liner you apologize. If you believe then you to keep after it. He isn’t apologizing.Report
Where in what I quoted does it say “it was a joke”?Report
I thought we were talking about what West said, not how his people spun him.
Granted, that was some seriously bizarre spin.Report
OK, where did West say it was a joke?Report
Actually, we were talking VPs and false stories about them, then the subject got changed to West. Truth, sir, is a cow which will yield such people no more milk, and so they are gone to milk the bull.Report
I second Tod here. Looking at the video, it did not come across as the McCarthyite declaration that x-number of Democrats were actually card-carrying members of the Communist Party. It came across to me as a deadpan joke in response to a jokey (the reader was chuckling) question about how many card-carrying communists are in congress. Worthy of the apology (or clarification) that never came, but different from the initial reports as I understood them.
A couple other things: This isn’t really a defense of West. The joke, such as it was, was entirely unbefitting a member of congress and rather mean-spirited. I also want to point out that I did not believe that Limbaugh’s comments were meant as a joke. This just seems a bit different to me.Report
There is only so far this discussion of West is worth going into. I only noted it in response to TVD’s perpetual umbrage machine. West is a despicable character based on what led him out of the Army. That he was elected is an embarrassment and his comments are totally in character, standard for a large subset of the conservative base and sleazy. If is was an actual joke then he would have apologized instead of having his flack double down on them.Report
BS tom….he said that then his PR flack tap danced to try to make it better. He said the House Progressive Caucus were commies. That was who he was referring to.His PR dude is doubling down on it.
This is a quote from the PR flack from the article you linked to:
“One stupid reporter with a local publication misquoted the entire thing, and they all jumped on one press account without verifying,” said Edson. ”It’s all typical west wing marching orders for their friends in the press.”
“Some people are going to quibble about semantics,” he added. “The real point is these people speak for themselves and if you listen to the words of the progressive caucus it’s clear that these people are opponents of capitalism — they oppose free markets, they oppose individual economic freedom — so you can call them whatever you want — whether they’re socialists or marxists or communists.”
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Or perhaps Vicky Hartzler
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/74954.html
“I have doubts that it is really his real birth certificate, and I think a lot of Americans do, but they claim it is, so we are just going to go with that.”
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Anyone whose favorables don’t outdo their unfavorables by at *least* 10 points is not an asset in a ticketReport
Acknowledged infra, Mr. Kolohe, that Rob Portman’s likelier to swing Ohio. But Kasich’s numbers are on the rise bigtime, and he is more popular than VD now. The crap anout Nikki Haley was indeed crap. Forgive me for setting the record straight. With links. Now I’m tired of having to write everything twice. I hope you’ll understand.
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“he is more popular than VD now”
Best. Campaign. Slogan. Ever.Report
Indeed it is Tod, I hadn’t been aware of Kasich’s meteoric rise past the clap up to mother-in- law range.Report
Kasich’s numbers are on the rise bigtime
“The governor’s approval rating has risen to 40 percent from 39 percent three weeks ago while his disapproval number dropped to 46 percent from 48 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.” (Feb. 14)
“Ohio voters split 42 – 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.” (March 28)
Gee, by this time his bigtime rise just might have taken him out of the margin of error!Report
I can see the campaign spin now: “A strong majority of Ohio voters either disapprove of Kasich or don’t care about him at all, but hey, it used to be slightly (and statistically, non-significantly) worse.”Report
“he is more popular than VD now”
You’re in trouble, in either case.Report
What greg said about Kasich. Kasich is pretty toxic right now, and I’d imagine nothing is more likely to tip Ohio away.
Bob McDonnell would probably be the orthodox choice: A southern, dyed in the wool conservative governor…but with the recent Virginia Sonogram law, he might also be kind of toxic unless the GOP feels they can double down on that.
Daniels and Graham are probably not on the cards simply because they’re not trusted by the conservative base, and any VP selection is likely (not entirely though) to be something to shore up his right flank and serve as red meat attack dog.
At this point though, I’d say McDonnell or Ryan. With perhaps the latter marginally more likely as you’d probably want legislative clout to make up for Romney’s lightness in that area.Report
It’s possible for McDonnell to do his own Schrödinger’s straddle on the sonogram issue because it was squashed before it actually came across his desk.Report
Or Heisenberg, whichever German physicist works in that analogy.Report
Strangeglove.Report
Burt, Ohio’s Rob Portman’s the inside word among righties. Chris Christie remains irresistible: pals w/Romney and an early supporter; could put NJ into play [59% approval in a blue state!] as well as SE Pennsylvania just across the river; and has the bulldog temperament to loose on the Emperor’s New Clothes.
If Romney is polling well and Portman can give him the vital swing state of Ohio, it’s him. If Romney’s dragging, gotta go with the home run ball, Big Chris.
Outside shot remains Jeb Bush. Would carry Florida, fluent in Spanish, which might put that bloc into play.
McDonnell of Virginia remains underqualified, a governor only since 2009. Haley too of course. Marco Rubio’s still a rookie.
Coburn’s too ideological, Ryan would be an Alinsky-type target, not a magnet. Conservatives hate Graham, unexcited by Daniels. Jindal’s well qualified, but would probably not add votes.
Kasich’s still my man, but Portman might bring Ohio more easily.
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NJ is not going to be in play even with Christie. There are also edges of the base that dislike Christie even more than Romney (or Lindsay Graham).
Florida is a toss up without Bush, having the Bush name on the ballot is still too toxic to be a net gain. And it’s going to take more than one man (and one year) for Republicans to mend fences with Hispanic constituencies.
Head to head, Jindal is just a bit less qualified than McDonnell, imo. While Jindal has more executive experience (between Governor and state secretary of Health jobs), and is undeniably brilliant, McDonnell has more overall government experience plus more private sector experience – something Jindal is frankly lacking, outside a 2 year consulting gig. (I do not have a very high opinion of consultants, even less of those straight out of college) (some of McDonnell’s experience edge comes, of course, from being almost 20 years older).Report
Props for the substantivityness, Mr. Kolohe, you may be right. I don’t see the GOP base being a problem, such is Obama’s leftness.
http://pjmedia.com/zombie/2012/04/16/tea-party-rallies-for-romney-in-san-francisco/
and they’d love Chris Christie’s takedown of the current admin, and ability to survive the counterattacks.
Bob McDonnell does have some great exp, albeit mostly on the state level, which short of governor, I tend to discount. But this does look danged good
Good-looking fellow, and it sure does look like he’s putting his hat in.
From his website, good economic news, a call for unity and a tour of the morning talkers…
http://www.bobmcdonnell.com/
Commonwealth Posts 7.6 Percent Revenue Growth in March
Pleased to announce the first direct shipments of Virginia cattle to Canada
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ZombieDoleReport
While Governors tend to be popular choices for the top of the ticket, at least in the postwar era, Governors are not very often chosen as running mates. In the second link, Mr. Silver makes some cogent points about Governors as running mates in general and specific to Romney’s personality and experience. Yet more reasons I’m still thinking Portman would be a very interesting choice alongside Rubio and Ryan.Report
Scott Walker?Report
…I’ve heard rumblings, is why I mention him. And he’s looking pretty strong in the recall at the moment – pre-Dem-candidate-consolidation bump, that is.
Man, is the Wisconsin Democratic bench shallow right now. Bad timing, fellas & ladies.Report
This guy, if only he’d been born here.Report
Seriously? Right after (or during) the West conversation?Report
Don’t take me out of context.Report
While I assume that the appropriate lens through which to view your original comment was that of a joke, I must say that I found it in somewhat questionable taste — the joke went a bridge too far, IMO.Report
Apparently these things are funnier coming from a congressman.Report
They are also officially a joke if told by Ted Nugent.Report
And it all goes recursive:
Allen West backs Ted Nugent Report