Winnowing The Long List

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Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Ordinary Times. Relapsed Lawyer, admitted to practice law (under his real name) in California and Oregon. On Twitter, to his frequent regret, at @burtlikko. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.

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47 Responses

  1. Avatar Will Truman says:

    One of the best candidates I have heard to date wasn’t been mentioned on that list: John Thune.

    He’s got conservative bona fides, he’s the guy who beat Daschle, and he’s from a not-bad part of Red America to be from.

    I’d probably be looking strongly at him and McDonnell. McDonnell’s resume might be a tad light for what they’re looking for, but what he lacks in longevity he makes up for by fielding more scrutiny than most.Report

  2. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Missouri is Southern enough to be Southern, Midwestern enough to be Midwestern… is Roy Blunt tainted by scandal?Report

  3. Avatar greginak says:

    Isn’t Kasich’s  popularity in his home state near the level of VD?  That isn’t always a good start for veep candidate. Haley has  a lot of Palin in her and may be getting indicted.Report

  4. Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

    Kasich’s polls are even [42-42] and Nikki Haley will not be indicted.

    http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/03/29/obama-kasich-benefit-from-economys-rise.html

    While Ohio voters still disapprove of Obama’s job performance by 2 percentage points — 49 percent to 47 percent — they nevertheless favor him over the two leading Republican presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

    If the election were held today, according to the poll, in Ohio, Obama would beat Romney 47 percent to 41?percent, and Santorum 47 percent to 40 percent.

    Ohio voters are evenly split, 42 percent to 42 percent, in their approval of the job Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago. In Quinnipiac’s mid-January poll, 48?percent disapproved of his performance and 39?percent approved.

     

    http://cjonline.com/opinion/2012-04-16/kathleen-parker-one-twit-all-it-takes

     The New York Times tracked the path of the Haley/tax rumor to show how quickly it traveled from a small spark in the fevered brain of a political enemy into a bonfire of inanity. It began with a blog item, then was tweeted by The Hill, a Washington political newspaper, and reported in a short article by The Daily Beast.

    All of this happened between 12:52 p.m., when the blog post went online, and 1:12 p.m., when a reporter for USA Today actually decided to call Haley’s office and find out if the story was true. Give that reporter a raise! But the rumor was retweeted at 1:14 by a Washington Post reporter and later picked up by online outlets Daily Kos and The Daily Caller. By 3:29, The Drudge Report linked to the Daily Caller article featuring the headline: “Report: DOJ may indict SC Gov. Nikki Haley for tax fraud.”

    The next morning, The State newspaper, South Carolina’s largest, had a front-page story. All in a day’s whisper.

    What is abominably clear is that this sort of thing can happen to anyone at any time. Haley extinguished this fire by releasing a letter from the Internal Revenue Service stating that there was no investigation.

    Report

    • Avatar greginak says:

      Kasich’s rating have just improved to the point where his approval caught up to his disapproval. Many of his actions in his first year have been very unpopular.Report

    • Avatar Mike Schilling says:

      Haley and Jindal are no more eligible to be president than Obama is.Report

    • Avatar Liberty60 says:

      Kasich’s polls are even [42-42] and Nikki Haley will not be indicted.

      A ringing endorsement!Report

      • Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

        First we dispense with the lies and slanders, Lib60.  The Haley indictment was a fabrication.  And in the poll where Kasich was 42-42, Obama was down 47-49.

        It had him ahead of Romney in Ohio, but today’s a different day—nationally, Gallup has Romney ahead, 47-45.

        http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/221713-romney-leads-obama-in-first-gallup-national-daily-tracking-poll

        The game’s afoot, Watson.

         

         Report

        • Avatar greginak says:

          “First we dispense with the lies and slanders,” OHHHH okay so you want to talk about Allen West then. Sorry didn’t realize where you were taking the conversation.Report

          • Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

            Mr. Greg, you were wrong twice.  Acknowledge it, before going on to being wrong a third time.  Wearin’ me the fuck out, dude.

            http://dailycaller.com/2012/04/11/stupid-reporter-took-communist-allegation-out-of-context-says-allen-wests-campaign/Report

            • Avatar Mike Schilling says:

              How is that a correction?  Al it says is that West was specific about whom he slandered.

              Some people are going to quibble about semantics,” [West’s campaign manager] added. “The real point is these people speak for themselves and if you listen to the words of the progressive caucus it’s clear that these people are opponents of capitalism — they oppose free markets, they oppose individual economic freedom — so you can call them whatever you want — whether they’re socialists or marxists or communists.

               Report

              • Avatar Tod Kelly says:

                I think the point was that it was a one-liner joke, not the McCarthy-esque declaration it got reported as.Report

              • Avatar greginak says:

                Then if you make a poor one liner you apologize. If you believe then you to keep after it. He isn’t apologizing.Report

              • Avatar Mike Schilling says:

                Where in what I quoted does it say “it was a joke”?Report

              • Avatar Tod Kelly says:

                I thought we were talking about what West said, not how his people spun him.

                Granted, that was some seriously bizarre spin.Report

              • Avatar Mike Schilling says:

                OK, where did West say it was a joke?Report

              • Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

                Actually, we were talking VPs and false stories about them, then the subject got changed to West.  Truth, sir, is a cow which will yield such people no more milk, and so they are gone to milk the bull.Report

              • Avatar Will Truman says:

                I second Tod here. Looking at the video, it did not come across as the McCarthyite declaration that x-number of Democrats were actually card-carrying members of the Communist Party. It came across to me as a deadpan joke in response to a jokey (the reader was chuckling) question about how many card-carrying communists are in congress. Worthy of the apology (or clarification) that never came, but different from the initial reports as I understood them.

                A couple other things: This isn’t really a defense of West. The joke, such as it was, was entirely unbefitting a member of congress and rather mean-spirited. I also want to point out that I did not believe that Limbaugh’s comments were meant as a joke. This just seems a bit different to me.Report

              • Avatar greginak says:

                There is only so far this discussion of West is worth going into. I only noted it in response to TVD’s perpetual umbrage machine. West is a despicable character based on what led him out of the Army. That he was elected is an embarrassment and his comments are totally in character, standard for a large subset of the conservative base and sleazy. If is was an actual joke then he would have apologized instead of having his flack double down on them.Report

            • Avatar greginak says:

              BS tom….he said that then his PR flack tap danced to try to make it better. He said the House Progressive Caucus were commies. That was who he was referring to.His  PR dude is doubling down  on it.

              This is a quote from the PR flack from the article you linked to:

              “One stupid reporter with a local publication misquoted the entire thing, and they all jumped on one press account without verifying,” said Edson.  ”It’s all typical west wing marching orders for their friends in the press.”

              “Some people are going to quibble about semantics,” he added. “The real point is these people speak for themselves and if you listen to the words of the progressive caucus it’s clear that these people are opponents of capitalism — they oppose free markets, they oppose individual economic freedom — so you can call them whatever you want — whether they’re socialists or marxists or communists.”

              Report

          • Avatar Mike Schilling says:

            Or perhaps Vicky Hartzler

            http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0412/74954.html

            “I have doubts that it is really his real birth certificate, and I think a lot of Americans do, but they claim it is, so we are just going to go with that.”

             Report

        • Avatar Kolohe says:

          Anyone whose favorables don’t outdo their unfavorables by at *least* 10 points is not an asset in a ticketReport

          • Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

            Acknowledged infra, Mr. Kolohe, that Rob Portman’s likelier to swing Ohio.  But Kasich’s numbers are on the rise bigtime, and he is more popular than VD now.  The crap anout Nikki Haley was indeed crap.  Forgive me for setting the record straight.  With links.  Now I’m tired of having to write everything twice. I hope you’ll understand.

             Report

            • Avatar Tod Kelly says:

              “he is more popular than VD now”

              Best. Campaign. Slogan. Ever.Report

            • Avatar James Hanley says:

              Kasich’s numbers are on the rise bigtime

              “The governor’s approval rating has risen to 40 percent from 39 percent three weeks ago while his disapproval number dropped to 46 percent from 48 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.” (Feb. 14)

              “Ohio voters split 42 – 42 percent in their approval of the job Gov. John Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago.” (March 28)

              Gee, by this time his bigtime rise just might have taken him out of the margin of error!Report

              • Avatar Chris says:

                I can see the campaign spin now: “A strong majority of Ohio voters either disapprove of Kasich or don’t care about him at all, but hey, it used to be slightly (and statistically, non-significantly) worse.”Report

            • Avatar Kolohe says:

              “he is more popular than VD now”

              You’re in trouble, in either case.Report

  5. Nob Akimoto Nob Akimoto says:

    What greg said about Kasich. Kasich is pretty toxic right now, and I’d imagine nothing is more likely to tip Ohio away.

    Bob McDonnell would probably be the orthodox choice: A southern, dyed in the wool conservative governor…but with the recent Virginia Sonogram law, he might also be kind of toxic unless the GOP feels they can double down on that.

    Daniels and Graham are probably not on the cards simply because they’re not trusted by the conservative base, and any VP selection is likely (not entirely though) to be something to shore up his right flank and serve as red meat attack dog.

    At this point though, I’d say McDonnell or Ryan. With perhaps the latter marginally more likely as you’d probably want legislative clout to make up for Romney’s lightness in that area.Report

  6. Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

    Burt, Ohio’s Rob Portman’s the inside word among righties.  Chris Christie remains irresistible: pals w/Romney and an early supporter; could put NJ into play [59% approval in a blue state!] as well as SE Pennsylvania just across the river; and has the bulldog temperament to loose on the Emperor’s New Clothes.

    If Romney is polling well and Portman can give him the vital swing state of Ohio, it’s him.  If Romney’s dragging, gotta go with the home run ball, Big Chris.

    Outside shot remains Jeb Bush.  Would carry Florida, fluent in Spanish, which might put that bloc into play.

    McDonnell of Virginia remains underqualified, a governor only since 2009.  Haley too of course.  Marco Rubio’s still a rookie.

    Coburn’s too ideological, Ryan would be an Alinsky-type target, not a magnet.  Conservatives hate Graham, unexcited by Daniels.  Jindal’s well qualified, but would probably not add votes.

    Kasich’s still my man, but Portman might bring Ohio more easily.

     Report

    • Avatar Kolohe says:

      NJ is not going to be in play even with Christie.  There are also edges of the base that dislike Christie even more than Romney (or Lindsay Graham).

      Florida is a toss up without Bush, having the Bush name on the ballot is still too toxic to be a net gain.  And it’s going to take more than one man (and one year) for Republicans to mend fences with Hispanic constituencies.

      Head to head, Jindal is just a bit less qualified than McDonnell, imo.  While Jindal has more executive experience (between Governor and state secretary of Health jobs), and is undeniably brilliant, McDonnell has more overall government experience plus more private sector experience – something Jindal is frankly lacking, outside a 2 year consulting gig.  (I do not have a very high opinion of consultants, even less of those straight out of college) (some of McDonnell’s experience edge comes, of course, from being almost 20 years older).Report

      • Avatar Tom Van Dyke says:

        Props for the substantivityness, Mr. Kolohe, you may be right.  I don’t see the GOP base being a problem, such is Obama’s leftness.

        http://pjmedia.com/zombie/2012/04/16/tea-party-rallies-for-romney-in-san-francisco/

        and they’d love Chris Christie’s takedown of the current admin, and ability to survive the counterattacks.

        Bob McDonnell does have some great exp, albeit mostly on the state level, which short of governor, I tend to discount. But this does look danged good

        • Served 14 years in the Virginia House of Delegates from Virginia Beach, rising to Chairman of the powerful Courts of Justice Committee, and Assistant Majority Leader
        • As Attorney General, 92 of his 105 legislative proposals passed, most with bipartisan support
        • As Attorney General, he kept all 7 of his campaign promises, including passing the nation’s toughest laws cracking down on sexual predators in the country

        Good-looking fellow, and it sure does look like he’s putting his hat in.

        From his website, good economic news, a call for unity and a tour of the morning talkers…

        http://www.bobmcdonnell.com/

        Commonwealth Posts 7.6 Percent Revenue Growth in March

        Pleased to announce the first direct shipments of Virginia cattle to Canada

        • I’ll be on @TheKudlowReport this evening at 7:30pm – Please tune in!
        • I’ll be on MSNBC’s Morning Joe at 8:15am – Please tune in!
        • I’ll be on @CBSThisMorning at 7:00am – Please tune in!
        • Congrats to Rick Santorum on great campaign. He has made a principled decision. Time to unite around Mitt Romney and win in November.

        Report

  7. Avatar Michael Drew says:

    Scott Walker?Report

    • Avatar Michael Drew says:

      …I’ve heard rumblings, is why I mention him.  And he’s looking pretty strong in the recall at the moment – pre-Dem-candidate-consolidation bump, that is.

      Man, is the Wisconsin Democratic bench shallow right now.  Bad timing, fellas & ladies.Report

  8. Avatar Mike Schilling says:

    This guy, if only he’d been born here.Report