Winnowing The Long List

Burt Likko

Pseudonymous Portlander. Homebrewer. Atheist. Recovering Republican. Recovering Catholic. Recovering divorcé. Editor-in-Chief Emeritus of Ordinary Times. Relapsed Lawyer, admitted to practice law (under his real name) in California and Oregon. On Twitter, to his frequent regret, at @burtlikko. House Likko's Words: Scite Verum. Colite Iusticia. Vivere Con Gaudium.

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47 Responses

  1. Will Truman says:

    One of the best candidates I have heard to date wasn’t been mentioned on that list: John Thune.

    He’s got conservative bona fides, he’s the guy who beat Daschle, and he’s from a not-bad part of Red America to be from.

    I’d probably be looking strongly at him and McDonnell. McDonnell’s resume might be a tad light for what they’re looking for, but what he lacks in longevity he makes up for by fielding more scrutiny than most.Report

  2. Jaybird says:

    Missouri is Southern enough to be Southern, Midwestern enough to be Midwestern… is Roy Blunt tainted by scandal?Report

  3. greginak says:

    Isn’t Kasich’s  popularity in his home state near the level of VD?  That isn’t always a good start for veep candidate. Haley has  a lot of Palin in her and may be getting indicted.Report

  4. Tom Van Dyke says:

    Kasich’s polls are even [42-42] and Nikki Haley will not be indicted.

    While Ohio voters still disapprove of Obama’s job performance by 2 percentage points — 49 percent to 47 percent — they nevertheless favor him over the two leading Republican presidential candidates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

    If the election were held today, according to the poll, in Ohio, Obama would beat Romney 47 percent to 41?percent, and Santorum 47 percent to 40 percent.

    Ohio voters are evenly split, 42 percent to 42 percent, in their approval of the job Kasich is doing, his best score since he was elected more than a year ago. In Quinnipiac’s mid-January poll, 48?percent disapproved of his performance and 39?percent approved.


     The New York Times tracked the path of the Haley/tax rumor to show how quickly it traveled from a small spark in the fevered brain of a political enemy into a bonfire of inanity. It began with a blog item, then was tweeted by The Hill, a Washington political newspaper, and reported in a short article by The Daily Beast.

    All of this happened between 12:52 p.m., when the blog post went online, and 1:12 p.m., when a reporter for USA Today actually decided to call Haley’s office and find out if the story was true. Give that reporter a raise! But the rumor was retweeted at 1:14 by a Washington Post reporter and later picked up by online outlets Daily Kos and The Daily Caller. By 3:29, The Drudge Report linked to the Daily Caller article featuring the headline: “Report: DOJ may indict SC Gov. Nikki Haley for tax fraud.”

    The next morning, The State newspaper, South Carolina’s largest, had a front-page story. All in a day’s whisper.

    What is abominably clear is that this sort of thing can happen to anyone at any time. Haley extinguished this fire by releasing a letter from the Internal Revenue Service stating that there was no investigation.


  5. Nob Akimoto says:

    What greg said about Kasich. Kasich is pretty toxic right now, and I’d imagine nothing is more likely to tip Ohio away.

    Bob McDonnell would probably be the orthodox choice: A southern, dyed in the wool conservative governor…but with the recent Virginia Sonogram law, he might also be kind of toxic unless the GOP feels they can double down on that.

    Daniels and Graham are probably not on the cards simply because they’re not trusted by the conservative base, and any VP selection is likely (not entirely though) to be something to shore up his right flank and serve as red meat attack dog.

    At this point though, I’d say McDonnell or Ryan. With perhaps the latter marginally more likely as you’d probably want legislative clout to make up for Romney’s lightness in that area.Report

  6. Tom Van Dyke says:

    Burt, Ohio’s Rob Portman’s the inside word among righties.  Chris Christie remains irresistible: pals w/Romney and an early supporter; could put NJ into play [59% approval in a blue state!] as well as SE Pennsylvania just across the river; and has the bulldog temperament to loose on the Emperor’s New Clothes.

    If Romney is polling well and Portman can give him the vital swing state of Ohio, it’s him.  If Romney’s dragging, gotta go with the home run ball, Big Chris.

    Outside shot remains Jeb Bush.  Would carry Florida, fluent in Spanish, which might put that bloc into play.

    McDonnell of Virginia remains underqualified, a governor only since 2009.  Haley too of course.  Marco Rubio’s still a rookie.

    Coburn’s too ideological, Ryan would be an Alinsky-type target, not a magnet.  Conservatives hate Graham, unexcited by Daniels.  Jindal’s well qualified, but would probably not add votes.

    Kasich’s still my man, but Portman might bring Ohio more easily.


    • Kolohe in reply to Tom Van Dyke says:

      NJ is not going to be in play even with Christie.  There are also edges of the base that dislike Christie even more than Romney (or Lindsay Graham).

      Florida is a toss up without Bush, having the Bush name on the ballot is still too toxic to be a net gain.  And it’s going to take more than one man (and one year) for Republicans to mend fences with Hispanic constituencies.

      Head to head, Jindal is just a bit less qualified than McDonnell, imo.  While Jindal has more executive experience (between Governor and state secretary of Health jobs), and is undeniably brilliant, McDonnell has more overall government experience plus more private sector experience – something Jindal is frankly lacking, outside a 2 year consulting gig.  (I do not have a very high opinion of consultants, even less of those straight out of college) (some of McDonnell’s experience edge comes, of course, from being almost 20 years older).Report

      • Tom Van Dyke in reply to Kolohe says:

        Props for the substantivityness, Mr. Kolohe, you may be right.  I don’t see the GOP base being a problem, such is Obama’s leftness.

        and they’d love Chris Christie’s takedown of the current admin, and ability to survive the counterattacks.

        Bob McDonnell does have some great exp, albeit mostly on the state level, which short of governor, I tend to discount. But this does look danged good

        • Served 14 years in the Virginia House of Delegates from Virginia Beach, rising to Chairman of the powerful Courts of Justice Committee, and Assistant Majority Leader
        • As Attorney General, 92 of his 105 legislative proposals passed, most with bipartisan support
        • As Attorney General, he kept all 7 of his campaign promises, including passing the nation’s toughest laws cracking down on sexual predators in the country

        Good-looking fellow, and it sure does look like he’s putting his hat in.

        From his website, good economic news, a call for unity and a tour of the morning talkers…

        Commonwealth Posts 7.6 Percent Revenue Growth in March

        Pleased to announce the first direct shipments of Virginia cattle to Canada

        • I’ll be on @TheKudlowReport this evening at 7:30pm – Please tune in!
        • I’ll be on MSNBC’s Morning Joe at 8:15am – Please tune in!
        • I’ll be on @CBSThisMorning at 7:00am – Please tune in!
        • Congrats to Rick Santorum on great campaign. He has made a principled decision. Time to unite around Mitt Romney and win in November.


  7. Michael Drew says:

    Scott Walker?Report

    • Michael Drew in reply to Michael Drew says:

      …I’ve heard rumblings, is why I mention him.  And he’s looking pretty strong in the recall at the moment – pre-Dem-candidate-consolidation bump, that is.

      Man, is the Wisconsin Democratic bench shallow right now.  Bad timing, fellas & ladies.Report

  8. Mike Schilling says:

    This guy, if only he’d been born here.Report