Is Ron Paul secretly working for the Mitt Romney campaign?
The shortest distance between two points is a straight line, and the likeliest explanation is usually the most straightforward and least complex. So when rumors started surfacing last month that Newt Gingrich’s Super PAC sugar daddy Sheldon Adelson was supporting Newt Gingrich in order to hurt Rick Santorum and help Mitt Romney it all sounded like too much 3-dimensional chess to me. Wouldn’t it just make more sense to back Romney? Why risk hurting Romney with negative ads – something that really did happen thanks to Gingrich’s rough-and-tumble South Carolina campaign – when you could use your money to prop up Romney’s campaign?
It doesn’t make sense.
But it’s just one billionaire with an agenda. That doesn’t make him a brilliant political strategist. It’s a fairly basic strategy all told – just point and shoot your money camera and hope something sticks.
The latest conspiracy theory is far more complex. Writing in The Exile, Mark Ames suggests that too many people in one of Ron Paul’s Super PACs have ties to the Huntsman and Romney campaigns for it to be a coincidence. I wrote recently about what I described as Ron Paul’s divide and conquer strategy. The Texas congressman has never attacked Mitt Romney in any of the GOP debates this election season, but he’s gone after just about every other candidate. Ames thinks something more sinister is at play:
Ron Paul’s SuperPAC, “Endorse Liberty,” is headquartered in Mitt Romney’s backyard: Salt Lake City, Utah.
Moreover, the SuperPAC’s staff and founders include several former Romney supporters and Huntsman supporters. And one of the founding principals of Endorse Liberty, Ladd Christensen, is something of an oligarch in Utah: Christensen is the longtime business partner of John Huntsman’s billionaire dad. They founded Huntsman Chemicals together, as well as Hunstman-Christensen.
Huntsman endorsed Mitt Romney when he bowed out of the race—in fact, Huntsman has a history of stepping aside for Mitt Romney and playing his second banana, going back at least to the Salt Lake City Olympics in 2002, which John’s billionaire dad helped to fund on behalf of Mitt Romney.
So to repeat: Ron Paul’s SuperPAC is based in Salt Lake City, and one of the founders is Ladd Christensen, John Huntsman’s business partner in Huntsman-Christensen and Huntsman Chemicals.
A couple of quick points. First it’s Jon Huntsman. No “H” in there. Not to nit-pick, but c’mon.
Second, Utah is not Mitt Romney’s backyard. He’s an East Coast Mormon. But I understand where Mark is going here. The Mormon connection may indeed be enough to bind Huntsman and Romney together. I’m less certain it’s enough to get Paul on board. Some independent, libertarian-leaning people with deep pockets backed Huntsman, but now that he’s gone is Paul the next best choice? Or are we really dealing with a Mormon conspiracy theory that has somehow netted the Paul campaign to play softball with Romney?
Ames pulls this quote from Morning Joe:
“The thing that went unspoken but everybody knows, and that is that Mitt Romney and Ron Paul have formed an alliance,” Scarborough said. “It is such an obvious alliance that Mitt Romney would do well to just come out and admit it. I don’t know what he’s promised Ron Paul. I don’t know if Ron Paul is hoping that his son gets in the administration. But let’s just be really honest here — for all the people for Ron Paul to form an alliance with in the Republican Party, to pick out Mitt Romney is really bizarre.”
Maybe so, but again we need to look at the likeliest explanation, and Ames’s theory hardly seems like it. Ames has a lengthy critique of Peter Thiel and uses that as some sort of evidence. Now we have a cynical ploy by Thiel, a conglomerate of Very Rich Mormons, and the Paul campaign to try to support Romney and hurt his rivals.
But again, wouldn’t it make more sense for these rich and powerful men to just put their money into Romney’s Super PAC? That war chest is much larger than Paul’s, but plenty of people are starting to say that Romney’s campaign is hurting for cash.
I guess it’s possible that Paul wants a spot on Romney’s ticket, or wants a more prominent role in the Republican Party in order to position his son Rand for a run, but it’s also possible that Paul is just waiting for his turn to take on Romney after the front-runner is wounded badly enough. Honestly, Mark’s theory makes for great political speculation but it’s not compelling precisely because you have to jump through too many hoops to make it work. Or rather, too many people involved have to jump through too many hoops to make it work.
Besides, how people behave in debates or on their ads says very little about their past or future support for a rival. Huntsman had some very harsh anti-Romney ads (and words) during his brief run and later endorsed the former Massachusetts governor.
And it’s not as though he’s always used kids gloves with Romney, either, despite what people are saying:
Another forceful response on foreign policy here.
Is it possible that Paul can sufficiently undermine Romney simply by disagreeing so fundamentally with Romney’s ideas and painting that contrast so effectively?
It seems more likely than long-shot conspiracy theories. But that’s just me. I never was a fan of conspiracy theories.
Update – here’s a Ron Paul ad that ran first in South Carolina and is recirculating now:
(hat-tip Mistermix)
Is it possible that Paul can sufficiently undermine Romney simply by disagreeing so fundamentally with Romney’s ideas and painting that contrast so effectively?
So will this continue to be your line if Paul outlasts Santorum and has a one-on-one contest against Romney throughout the spring and early summer during which time he never seriously goes after Romney in direct-mention-challenge (if not devastatingly negative, as he’s done with other candidates) way, then goes to the convention and endorses Willard with a big smile on his face, harshing no one but Obama the whole time, and makes not a single peep about a third-party run? (That’s my prediction, btw.) I’m not saying it’s a conspiracy – I’m not even saying you’d have to twist yourself into much of a knot to see all of that much as you describe what you’re seeing now here. I guess all I’m saying is… it’s weak, that’s all. Not you — him.Report
Well we’ll see. But this is sort of an unfair question, don’t you think? Will you still support Obama when he starts eating babies for breakfast? Eh, eh, will you? I mean, who knows what the strategy is for Paul? I just suspect we don’t need to leap through a bunch of hoops to find out.Report
Uh, no. Not unfair. To imagine things might keep going pretty much the way they’re going now and ask if you”d keep saying what you’re saying now about it? No, don’t really think that’s unfair. Certainly not the same as asking about Obama turning into a cannibal.Report
You are assuming things are going a specific way. I question whether that is a reasonable perception to begin with.Report
How is asking an “if” question an assumption? (I admitted it’s my prediction, but that’s an aside to the question, and it’s just a prediction. I could well be wrong.) You really have an I-don’t-answer-hypotheticals policy or maintain this one is soooo far-fetched it’s ridiculous to even pose it? All right, but no, I’m not assuming anything.Report
The third video I just added shows him attacking Mitt directly through an ad.Report
Okay. Well, if this all based on sand, then great. Go to it, Ron.Report
In SE Asia, we used to have a strategy for flushing out trouble. We had a little helo called a Loach which could fly in very low. It went out accompanied by a much more powerful Cobra helo which would hide not far off. The Loach would draw fire which the Cobra would come in to deal with immediately.
Ron Paul is a Loach. He’s out there, saying things which would get anyone else in serious trouble. But the Loach could take an awful lot of fire but it could dish out plenty of trouble, too. Like the Loach, he’s nimble. But is Romney the Cobra in this team? I don’t know. I don’t think so.
Is he operating in concert with Romney? It’s hard to say. That conclusion might be a bit far-fetched. Ron Paul serves a very different mission in this campaign than Romney. Romney’s got some serious problems, what with his backing away from everything reasonable he’s ever done as governor of Massachusetts. Ron Paul’s supporters might vote for Romney when push comes to shove but they’ll be holding their noses when they do.
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I question whether Paul even wants to win. He wants to get his message out there, and I don’t think he wants to spend a ton of time deflecting Romney attack ads. Better to shoot spitballs at the other kids for now.Report
Ron Paul would very much like to win. He knows he won’t, of course. As you say, he’s more interested in getting his message out there. Engels observed
The worst thing that can befall a leader of an extreme party is to be compelled to take over a government in an epoch when the movement is not yet ripe for the domination of the class which he represents and for the realization of the measures which that domination would imply.Report
That’s it, EDK. In return for not splitting the party or damaging its nominee, RP gets his last moment in the sun at the convention. Finishing 2nd or 3rd was his ceiling anyway, so he’s accomplished his achievable goal.
Rand Paul’s future in the party is assured, everybody wins. Except Gingrich. Which on the whole is good for the GOP too. Better a Dole-like capitulation than a Goldwater-style immolation.Report
I haven’t seen anything present that resembles evidence of Paul working with the Romney camp. Perhaps the only justifiable reason would be to eliminate the extremists, i.e. Santorum. Simply focussing all efforts towards that goal, however, doesn’t prove to me that he’s in cahoots with Romney. I’ve been tracking Paul for more than a few years now I just don’t see a Romney/Paul ticket happening. The VP seat just doesn’t provide enough benefit to completely sell out to obtain it. The only disagreement I have with the comment above is that I think you’ll be hard pressed to find a true Ron Paul supporter who will end up voting for Romney, or any other GOP candidate for that matter. That’s a false assumption I’ve read from a lot of folks. I think it would be a mistake for any of the candidates to count on those votes… not that they’ll need them, but if the polls are any indication, Romney may need every possible vote to win the White House; probably a point that perpetuates the Paul/Romney conspiracy theory as well… That relationship would perhaps benefit Romney far more than Paul.Report
The few Paul supporters I know have no intention of voting for Romney if he gets the nomination. They’ll likely go libertarian.Report
I said, they might, but they’d hold their noses. Perhaps Erik sees something we don’t in all this: Ron Paul is running on the GOP ticket. Would you go so far as to predict Ron Paul wouldn’t endorse the GOP nominee?Report
He didn’t last time.Report
By the time I was finished with the Mark Ames article, I’d opened a metric buttload of tabs and believe I reached the End of the Internet. It’s awfully hard to prove a negative and as you’ve pointed out here, there’s no love lost between Romney and Paul.
I have an alternate theory: Ron Paul has been in the game so long now he really don’t care much about how his message gets sliced and diced. What you see (and hear) is what you get with him. Even all those goofy things he said in his newsletters, nobody cares about that stuff. He’s a walking tautology. If folks agree with his conclusions, they love the guy. Just don’t ask for a whole lot of justification for them.
Ron Paul’s got nothing to win and plenty to lose from an alliance with Romney.Report
a metric buttload of tabs
Is that larger or smaller than the English buttload?Report
The olde Imperial buttload is 1.375 of the later English buttload which is itself 0.875 of an American buttload.
The metric buttload is, of course, 1,000 craptons.Report
I think it’s a little early to say flat out alliance but it’s patently obvious Ron Paul likes Romney and would prefer he get the nod (above anyone but Ron Paul himself of course).Report
Paul likes Romney? I don’t get that sense at all. I think Romney pretty much represents the antithesis of everything Paul stands for. While I don’t think Paul believes he’ll win, I suspect he’s waiting for Santorum and Gingrich to kill themselves off so he can go mano-a-mano with Romney.Report
I’ve read in several sources that the two campaigns are quite friendly. There’s regular communication and, when the Paul campaign jet broke, Romney arranged for Paul to use his jet to get to Texas. On a legal and political principal level they are very far apart but on a personal level the seem to get along great.Report
Well, I guess somebody has to like Romney.Report
There’s a long tradition of campaigns making wink-wink deals with one another once it’s become clear who the nominee was ultimately going to be. I think it’s likely that Paul and his however many delegates want to be very respected figures in the room when Team Romney gets to work on the Party platform before the convention. I don’t think Ron Paul, crazy as he is, genuinely believes he can win the nomination. Although maybe that friend of his in the Mossad has some inside info…Report
Right, but given how much of a contrast Ron Paul ostensibly (and actually) is to Romney on issues, how is he helping those who follow him for his ideas (rather than because they harbor hopes for the political trajectory of Rand Paul) by softwalking that contrast with the frontrunner? (I know you know this – this is kind of a question to Erik.) Are we going to see the hard, hard sell for Liberty as contra Romney? I have my doubts. And if not, what’s the point of Ron Paul from the perspective of someone who cares about his ideas but not at all about the man?Report
“I never was a fan of conspiracy theories.”
…and yet you’re a fan of Ron Paul. (/snark)Report
Indeed, right up to the point where he sounds like a conspiracy theorist. Gold, the Fed, etc.Report
I’m not remotely with him on gold, for reasons I’ve discussed before. But when it comes to the Fed he has a point. That it is deeply corrupt and self-serving doesn’t help either.Report
This is such a ridiculous theory I’m embarrassed for the pundits considering it seriously. The fact that it emanated from one of Limbaugh’s crack-pot musings is just icing on the cake. The current primary, as with most, is broken up into three tiers: the front-runner (Romney), the challengers (Santorum, Gingrich somewhat), and the novelty act (Paul). You can only move through one tier at a time, so if a novelty candidate attacks the front-runner he will, at best, create space for the challengers to move in. Likewise, if the front-runner attacks the novelty candidate he will only strengthen the position of the challengers. The novelty act is always interested in chipping away at the challengers with the hope that he can swap with them, and the front-runner is always interested in ignoring the novelty act and looking presidential. Have I just been playing board-games too much or Is this not how every primary has played out?Report
Who do you think draws the support of more nutcases: Ron Paul or Mark Ames (not that I don’t love the both of them)?Report
That is to say: how many degrees of separation do you think there are between ronpaul.com and pages on reptoids and the Exiled Online and pages on reptoids, and what do you think the ratio between these degrees of separation is? I imagine K(Paul) is approximately equal to K(Ames).Report
Depends on your definition of “nutcase”, don’t it?Report
“nutcase” is directly proportional to “reptoid”.Report
Did not realize what “reptoid” meant, sorry. Looked it up, saw obvious crazies, point taken.Report
Why are you not willing to talk about the media’s conspiracy to not give Dr. Paul a fair amount of time?
No interviews. Camera told to stay off him at debates. Moderators deliberately avoiding giving him questions.
Why not ask why the media are conspiring against Dr. Paul?Report
I see this is your first time here. Do a search on Ron Paul above and work your way backwards through the threads. It’s not such an ignored topic; was a time it felt like it was all anyone talked about.Report
Kind, funny, incisive, RTod. You rock.
Likely a kiss of death, though. Anyone who cannot perceive the upper limit of discussion here is likely to help drag it toward the low.Report
Huntsman pretty much had to do that, since it was blindingly obvious that him & Romney were rather close politically. Ron Paul is about as near Romney as Los Angeles is to Prague, so he really doesn’t have to do much work in distinguishing himself.Report