That Fine Line Between Correlation and Coincidence
Obama now leads Texas Governor Rick Perry, the frontrunner in the GOP contest, 46% to 39%. Perry’s chief rival for the nomination, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney , holds a narrow 43% to 40% lead over the president.
I also want to put forth this tidbit, from another write-up of the same Romney-Obama polling data:
Less than three weeks ago, Romney trailed Obama 43% to 39%. At that time, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the only Republican contender leading the president, with a 44% to 41% advantage.
So, at the same time that Perry has emerged as the “face” of the Republican primaries but seen his stock against Obama swing the wrong way by 10 percent, Romney has seen a six-point positive swing. My question is: to what extent has Romney’s uptick been connected to Perry’s emergence as the GOP front-runner (and the subsequent media coverage)?
I’ll be honest: a month ago I heard “Mitt Romney” and though “The Plastic Fantastic Dancing Fraud.” But now — Fred Astaire was pretty snazzy, after all, and that Jefferson Airplane song would be kind of awesome as a campaign theme (especially if we could get Huck and Hunt to perform it live):
(N.B. Don’t take this as an endorsement, yet, Mitt! Both sides have quite a bit to do to wrest me away from another Wendell Berry write-in vote. However, my price is probably more affordable than Perry’s.)