The Census and the Republican Victory in the House

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Erik Kain

Erik writes about video games at Forbes and politics at Mother Jones. He's the contributor of The League though he hasn't written much here lately. He can be found occasionally composing 140 character cultural analysis on Twitter.

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8 Responses

  1. You’re not touching on it here but this also has big implications for the Electoral College.Report

    • Avatar Kolohe says:

      The primary difference being is that the electoral college changes come out of the Census *alone*; the reapportionment is a function of both the census results *and* this latest election.

      I am not sure though, if states that do not see a change in # of representatives need to necessarily re-apportion (or do they still have to to make sure districts are still the same size if population shifts have altered the districts’ population?)

      If states with no change in # of reps don’t need to reapportion, the only ones with a trifecta shift and a rep # change together are IL, IA, MI*, NY, PA*, and OH* – which all are slated to lose one (‘cept OH two) , and the three * are newly minted Republican trifecta

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_States_Census#2012_electionReport

      • Avatar Trumwill says:

        This is true. Also true, though, is that the electoral college is rarely all that close. The 2000 election was an oddity in that sense as well as in many, many others. And had Gore been awarded the electoral votes from Florida, it wouldn’t have been close even then despite a razor-thin margin in the popular vote.Report

  2. Avatar Alan Scott says:

    For anyone who cheered on filibuster reform* when Democrats controlled the House and Senate, perhaps now would be the time to reconsider that position.

    Huh? Filibusters are a senate issue–and no matter how many gains republicans have made, they won’t be redistricting the senate.Report

    • Avatar Dividist says:

      With 23 of the 33 seats in the Senate up for election in 2012 currently held by Democrats – including Democratic Senators carried to narrow victories in red states by surfing the 2006 Democratic wave (Tester, Webb, Nelson) – it seems extremely unlikely that the Democrats will control the Senate majority beyond 2012. So – any “filibuster reform” enacted now will be enjoyed by Democrats for no more than two years, before it is put into hands of the Republicans in 2013. Which raises the specter of a simple majority of Senate Republicans in 2013 undoing the HCR legislation it took a 60-40 super-majority of Democrats to implement in 2010. A full year before any of the most meaningful benefits are scheduled to kick in. Just sayin… It might be time for the reality based community to – um – face reality.Report

  3. Avatar Dividist says:

    “No matter who controls the White House for the foreseeable future, only two options likely remain until 2022: divided government, or a Republican trifecta at the federal level.” – edk

    As a confirmed dividist, let me be the first to welcome my new born-again Democratic Party divided government fair-weather-fan allies back into the fold. I look forward to standing shoulder to shoulder with you, fighting the good fight, until such time as – you know – it looks like Democrats again have a chance at one party rule.

    And regarding that “filibuster reform” thing, far be it for me to say “I told you so”, but … I told you so.Report

  4. Avatar Koz says:

    Actually, I think the election of Pelosi as Minority Leader of the House (combined with the fact that for as many seats the GOP gained in the last cycle, there were still a significant number that got left on the table) is actually much more important for the short term.

    Gerrymandering can be very important, but it’s less important in the current context. For example, the GOP state legislators in Texas and Alabama can draw whatever district lines they want, but the GOP dominates the Congressional delegations to the point where there isn’t much blood to be gotten from those turnips.

    The real potential for effect gerrymandering is in the Rust Belt. But even there, it’s much more important for the GOP to continue its message dominance than to have favorable district lines.Report