Afghan Army/Gov’t FAIL
As a surprise to no one with some understanding of the Afghan context, instead of relying on universalist abstract COIN theories (“assume a can opener” , “assume a competent national government”), the Afghan Army, Government, and Police are no good. You can’t win a COIN hearts and minds campaign when there is no one to follow up your military incursions. The Taliban, as always in asymmetric warfare, win by not losing. Staying is horrible, leaving will be disastrous.