Will the Tories take back 10 Downing Street?

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Erik Kain

Erik writes about video games at Forbes and politics at Mother Jones. He's the contributor of The League though he hasn't written much here lately. He can be found occasionally composing 140 character cultural analysis on Twitter.

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10 Responses

  1. Avatar Simon K says:

    It’ll probably be a hung parliament. My preferred outcome is a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government – maximum fiscal responsibility and good government, minimum stupid shibboleths since they don’t agree about anything else. Unfortunately there’s a good chance the Tories will win enough seats that they’ll just get the support of the Ulster Unionists – not very democratic since they’re not even the largest unionist party in N Ireland itself any more, and bad for the peace process. A Labour-Lib Dem coalition is the worst possible outcome, though – lots of well-meaning regulation, no useful reform.Report

  2. Avatar Zach says:

    Would you prefer a clear conservative victory or a hung parliament with conservatives having to broker a deal with lib dems?

    Not knowing where the various parties fall on the ideological spectrum, I wonder if there’s a chance that the conservatives could come very, very close to a majority and make a majority with the minor Scottish parties or whatever instead of the lib dems.Report

    • Avatar Simon K says:

      @Zach, Roughly: conservative = moderate republicans. Labour = slightly left of the centre of Democrats. Lib Dems = somewhat libertarian Democrats.Report

  3. Avatar North says:

    I’m rooting for the conservatives myself. Labor has had to carry the mantle of government over there for far too long. They are absolutely calcified with the ennui and set in their rutt thinking that comes with long unchallenged stints in power. They need some serious cleansing time in the wilderness and the Brits seriously need to eat their fiscal spinatch.Report

  4. Avatar Chris Dierkes says:

    The polls don’t necessarily reflect seats to be gained. Because of the weird districting, I think Labour is likely to get seats disproportionate to their actual vote count. This is a problem for The Tories.Report

  5. Avatar Jaybird says:

    Has anybody heard anything yet?Report

    • Avatar Jaybird says:

      From Drudge: FLASH: UK EXIT POLL SHOWS HUNG PARLIAMENT, WITH DAVID CAMERON AT 307 SEATS, LEADING BIGGEST PARTY; BROWN LABOUR 255 SEATS…Report

      • Avatar Simon K says:

        @Jaybird, Since the lib dems didn’t do very well (only 57 seats) it means the only viable coalition with a majority is Tory/Lib Dem. Labour would need one of the nationalist parties too, which would probably make it non-viable.Report

        • Avatar Jaybird says:

          @Simon K, I see one of two things happening:

          The Tory folks say that they wantpower RFN and forge a coalition and are willing to pay the Lib Dem price of Proportional Representation… and hamstring themselves tomorrow in exchange for a weak coalition today.

          The Tory folk being more than happy enough to see what happens with a hung parliament because they rather expect to pick up even more votes after the PIIGS implode… enough to not need a coalition at all.

          My money is on the former.Report

          • Avatar Simon K says:

            @Jaybird, My money is also on the former. Chances are the Lib Dems will settle for a referendum on PR, though, and it could well be rejected or the public (or those choosing the question) might skew towards STV or AV. Which wouldn’t be so bad – STV with constituencies would probably be the best option for the UK.

            I’m actually expecting the Greece problem to be contained. Portugal or Italy may go too, but that’ll be it. Spain and Ireland are in much better shape than “the markets” seem to believe. Britain won’t be impacted – I don’t even really expect a downgrade from AAA.Report