Will the Tories take back 10 Downing Street?
I’ve been watching the lead up to the parliamentary elections in the UK fairly closely. I only caught bits of the three debates, and at the end of the day I’m rooting for Cameron and the Tories who, I think, will be a good corrective to the follies of Labour. I thought the Nick Clegg moment was fascinating in a Ron Paulish way, and am glad to see a viable third party emerge in Britain. Wouldn’t it be interesting – wonderful really – if a similar thing could happen here, with a real piece of the pie cut out for whatever Third Party took seats in Congress? The polls show Cameron winning by a hair – whether this bears out in the coming hours is anyone’s guess.
It’ll probably be a hung parliament. My preferred outcome is a Tory/Lib Dem coalition government – maximum fiscal responsibility and good government, minimum stupid shibboleths since they don’t agree about anything else. Unfortunately there’s a good chance the Tories will win enough seats that they’ll just get the support of the Ulster Unionists – not very democratic since they’re not even the largest unionist party in N Ireland itself any more, and bad for the peace process. A Labour-Lib Dem coalition is the worst possible outcome, though – lots of well-meaning regulation, no useful reform.Report
Would you prefer a clear conservative victory or a hung parliament with conservatives having to broker a deal with lib dems?
Not knowing where the various parties fall on the ideological spectrum, I wonder if there’s a chance that the conservatives could come very, very close to a majority and make a majority with the minor Scottish parties or whatever instead of the lib dems.Report
@Zach, Roughly: conservative = moderate republicans. Labour = slightly left of the centre of Democrats. Lib Dems = somewhat libertarian Democrats.Report
I’m rooting for the conservatives myself. Labor has had to carry the mantle of government over there for far too long. They are absolutely calcified with the ennui and set in their rutt thinking that comes with long unchallenged stints in power. They need some serious cleansing time in the wilderness and the Brits seriously need to eat their fiscal spinatch.Report
The polls don’t necessarily reflect seats to be gained. Because of the weird districting, I think Labour is likely to get seats disproportionate to their actual vote count. This is a problem for The Tories.Report
Has anybody heard anything yet?Report
From Drudge: FLASH: UK EXIT POLL SHOWS HUNG PARLIAMENT, WITH DAVID CAMERON AT 307 SEATS, LEADING BIGGEST PARTY; BROWN LABOUR 255 SEATS…Report
@Jaybird, Since the lib dems didn’t do very well (only 57 seats) it means the only viable coalition with a majority is Tory/Lib Dem. Labour would need one of the nationalist parties too, which would probably make it non-viable.Report
@Simon K, I see one of two things happening:
The Tory folks say that they wantpower RFN and forge a coalition and are willing to pay the Lib Dem price of Proportional Representation… and hamstring themselves tomorrow in exchange for a weak coalition today.
The Tory folk being more than happy enough to see what happens with a hung parliament because they rather expect to pick up even more votes after the PIIGS implode… enough to not need a coalition at all.
My money is on the former.Report
@Jaybird, My money is also on the former. Chances are the Lib Dems will settle for a referendum on PR, though, and it could well be rejected or the public (or those choosing the question) might skew towards STV or AV. Which wouldn’t be so bad – STV with constituencies would probably be the best option for the UK.
I’m actually expecting the Greece problem to be contained. Portugal or Italy may go too, but that’ll be it. Spain and Ireland are in much better shape than “the markets” seem to believe. Britain won’t be impacted – I don’t even really expect a downgrade from AAA.Report