A brief aside on yesterday’s election in Virginia

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11 Responses

  1. Avatar Jay Daniel
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    says:

    This post is waiting to a good one, but it contains a glaring omission: a comparison to the demographics of the Virginia Electorate on Nov. 2, 2008. My hunch is that it will prove your point. Then again, maybe you will be surprised and be forced to revise your argument. Either way, this isn’t a really an argument — more of a bald assertion — without doing the comparison.Report

  2. Avatar Bob Cheeks
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    says:

    Jamalle, thanks for this. Because I’m biased (anti-Marxist) I really can’t say if BO’s programs are disturbing the electorate or not. I suppose we’ll have to wait and see in 2010.
    We’ll have to see if he can get his socialized medicine and cap and tax program through. If he’s able to you guys win, if not, it’s all over for the commie-Dems.Report

  3. Avatar Will
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    says:

    Jamelle –

    Any chance you could knock up a similar chart using the exit polls from ’08? I’d be interested in a visual comparison.Report

  4. Avatar Scott
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    says:

    Jamelle:

    Are you joining Pelosi in dismissing the losses in VA and NJ?

    http://www.politico.com/livepulse/1109/Pelosi_dismisses_impact_of_New_Jersey_Virginia.htmlReport

  5. Avatar Charles Schirra
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    says:

    Where are the white 18-29 year olds?… Correction, I checked the link, and was unpleasantly surprised that we only made up 7%. Total 18-29 year olds only totaled to 9%?! Where were the crowds from Obama?Report

  6. Avatar Jay Daniel
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    says:

    Jamelle — Thank you for doing this. One question I have though: where are the Latinos and “others” in your first graph? Are they lumped in with whites? Simply omitted?Report

  7. Avatar dave.s.
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    says:

    here’s a comment I put up somewhere else (Half Changed World), and which I think has some value here, too:

    So it’s a rout. Blow out. I think the change is less than it appears – the 2008 Obama election/electorate resulted in part from a HUGE effort in the Dem jurisdictions in the north part of the state to turn out absentee voters. There are criteria which absentee voters are supposed to meet (absence from County, illness, etc.) and which have within living memory been enforced – or at least you had to lie about meeting them before the lady at the courthouse would give you a ballot. In the Obama 08 election, it was Katy bar the door, wink, wink, nudge, nudge. We were all told how dreadful the lines would be election day, were nearly dragooned out of the subway to vote early. Obama’s margin for the state was I think around 150000 and that was a whole lot like the number of absentee ballots cast in the NoVa burbs. It was a huge effort with a number of folks full time running poll stations in the runup to the election, and the Reep leaning jurisdictions in south state had nothing like it, nor had they relaxed standards from what the law called for. There was nothing like that this time from FFX-ARL in facilitating votes, nor would it have worked, really, since all of us voters had no realistic fear of long lines on voting day!

    This is probably not replicable, and particularly now with the Reeps in charge they will make sure that there is a uniform standard for absentee voting across the state.

    What I’m saying is, that the recent change in the electorate is probably from a one-time thing to something more like the base state, here in VA.Report

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